One week market review of soybean meal at home and abroad (as of August 18)

Introduction: for the week ending August 18, soybean and soybean meal prices in the international market are subject to the 8 The U.S soybean output revealed in the agricultural product supply and demand report in May will be greatly reduced due to the weather The domestic soybean meal price began to rise rapidly on Tuesday Many domestic oil production enterprises have stopped offering foreign prices because they can not grasp the trend of soybean meal As of the end of the week, except for the soybean meal price in Heilongjiang, the price of soybean meal in other regions in China has increased by 70-150 yuan / ton, with Guangdong and Guangxi regions receiving the support of soybean meal supply, with the largest increase At the end of the week, the transaction price of soybean in the main domestic ports did not change much, and the price was about 2400 yuan / ton On Wednesday, US August shipments of spot soybeans were quoted at US $249 per ton Main situation of V2a international market in one week: this week, soybean meal price of Chicago Board of trade rose sharply, and soybean meal futures in September closed at 188.30 USD / short ton on Thursday According to the weekly sales report data of the USDA, as of August 8, the soybean export volume of 2001 / 02 in the United States reached 29.0293 million tons, which achieved 100.62% of the USDA's annual export target of 28.85 million tons In its August supply and demand report, the U.S Department of agriculture predicted a moderate 2.2% increase in oil meal trade, mainly due to an increase of 1.4 million tons in soybean meal trade, as well as an increase in sunflower seed meal and fish meal trade Brazil and Argentina will increase soybean meal exports by 16% and 9%, respectively, due to higher supply US soybean meal exports will fall 12% to 6.1 million tons due to tight soybean supply and increased competition In the USDA's supply and demand report in August, China's soybean meal export in 2001 / 02 was increased by 100000 tons to 900000 tons, while the soybean meal export in 2002 / 03 was 500000 tons, 150000 tons higher than the 350000 tons predicted last month V2a revealed this week that Argentina's soybean crushing increased in June and July to meet strong export demand for soybean oil and meal Soybean oil exports reached a record 460000 tons in July, mainly to India and China Argentina's soybean meal exports also increased significantly in July, reaching a record of about 1.8 million tons Oil world also revealed that Japan's domestic consumption of soybean meal increased to 3.15 million tons from October to June last year, a 20% increase over the previous year During the same period, soybean crushing increased by 160000 tons to 3.01 million tons From January to June 2002, soybean meal import increased to more than 500000 tons, higher than 300000 tons in the same period last year Main situation of domestic market of V2a in a week: Bai Meiqing, chairman of China Grain and Oil Association, said on Monday that China's soybean import in the first half of the year was only about 3 million tons due to the restriction of new GMOs regulations He believes soybean imports will reach 6 to 7 million tons in the second half of the year If the economic growth rate can be maintained at 7%, China's soybean imports are expected to be higher in the second half of the year This week, China's AQSIQ announced a new regulation on the administration of genetically modified agricultural products, the regulations on the reexamination of the quarantine of imported animals and plants, which is based on this year's 1 In June, the regulations on the safety management of agricultural genetically modified organisms announced by the Ministry of agriculture of China and another set of regulations re formulated by the law of the Ministry of health on the import and export inspection and Quarantine of animals and plants of China Some domestic trade manufacturers believe that the newly announced "China animal and plant import and export inspection and Quarantine Law" will not have a great impact on soybean import Although the announcement of this regulation helps to clarify the procedure of applying for import license from China's quarantine organ, there are still some unclear places The regulation does not indicate the time required for the local quarantine organ to conduct the preliminary examination The market is looking forward to the introduction of the detailed rules for the implementation of the regulation V2a last week, some soybean warehouse receipts of Dalian Commodity Exchange entered the domestic market According to the positions announced by Dalian Commodity Exchange on Friday, the number of soybeans entering the domestic market is 200000-300000 tons, smaller than the market expected 500000 tons At the same time, the current number of warehouse receipts is about 350000 tons Due to the relatively small quantity of Dalian spot soybeans entering the market and the high transaction price (the price of the factory is expected to be lower than 2300 yuan / ton), the impact on the domestic soybean and soybean meal prices is relatively small V2a is generally concerned about the arrival quantity of imported soybeans in August, according to statistics, the arrival quantity of imported soybeans in the first 10 days of August is 262300 tons, and the total arrival quantity of imported soybeans in August is expected to be 660000 tons Therefore, we can see that, in addition to some American and South American soybeans purchased recently, the total quantity of imported soybeans in August should be less than 800000 tons Compared with 1710000 tons of imported soybeans in July, the quantity of imported soybeans decreased by about 1 million tons V2a Based on the current situation, the trading volume of domestic soybean meal at the current price level has been greatly reduced, and many factors limit the price of soybean meal to continue to rise Under the condition that the price of imported soybean does not change greatly, the resistance of the price of domestic soybean meal to continue to rise is increasing, and the trend of domestic soybean meal price in the later period is likely to be affected by Chicago soybean price and domestic supply and demand The impact of the Department, in the current price level for a period of time to wait for volume and foreign good news support V2a