Once the bird flu strikes, it may exacerbate the supply of raw materials for anti-new crown traditional Chinese medicine!

According to news reports on April 5, 2022, the United States suffered its worst bird flu outbreak in nine years
.
The epidemic has spread to 23 states in the United States, and more than 27 million birds have been slaughtered.
With the spread of bird flu, 52,000 birds will continue to be slaughtered to control the spread of the epidemic
.

Figure 1: 2021 Domestic Consumption Channel Structure of Chinese Medicinal Materials Domestically, as shown in Figure 1, Chinese veterinary medicines have become an important component of domestic consumption channels of Chinese medicinal materials, with an annual consumption of more than 125,000 tons of Chinese medicinal materials
.
With such a large demand, can the current supply of raw materials be guaranteed? Will there be a situation that conflicts with the current top priority of combating the new crown epidemic? 1.
Distribution of Chinese veterinary drug enterprises: The distribution of raw materials is mainly based on the distribution of raw materials.
The average growth rate of the number of enterprises in the past five years has reached 14.
62%.
Figure 2: Distribution map of domestic Chinese veterinary drug production and operation enterprises.
Radial distribution
.
As of April 2022, the number of domestic Chinese veterinary drug production and operation enterprises was 1,153.
Among them, the top 5 provinces of Chinese veterinary drug enterprises were: Guangdong Province, Sichuan Province, Henan Province, Shandong Province and Hebei Province, accounting for 16.
31%, 14.
66, 13.
88%, 12.
66% and 7.
20%
.
Figure 3: Growth in the number of Chinese veterinary drug companies from April 2015 to April 2022 From the perspective of quantitative growth: After 2019, the growth rate of Chinese veterinary drug companies increased
.
The number of Chinese veterinary drug companies increased from 57 in 2019 to 99 in 2021, an increase of 73.
68%
.
In the first four months of 2022, the number of companies increased by 41, and it is expected that the number of companies will exceed 110 by the end of 2022
.
Figure 4: 2016-2021 Chinese Herbal Medicine Comprehensive 200 Index (Source: Chinese Herbal Medicine World.
com) From the Comprehensive 200 Index: Chinese Herbal Medicine has entered a stage of general growth since 2019, and the number of Chinese veterinary drug companies also began to grow rapidly during this period.

.
The increase in the number of Chinese veterinary drug companies has a significant positive correlation with the increase in the price of Chinese medicine raw materials
.
2.
Traditional Chinese medicine veterinary drugs: There are a large number of veterinary drugs for epidemic prevention, and the proportion of drugs used reaches 21.
88%.
Figure 5: Distribution of drug types of veterinary drugs (Data source: State Drug Administration) In terms of drug types, the proportion of epidemic prevention drugs is the highest
.
There are 192 types of traditional Chinese medicine veterinary drugs in China, of which the top 5 Chinese veterinary drugs are: epidemic prevention drugs, stomach drugs, intestinal drugs, pain drugs and spleen deficiency drugs, accounting for 21.
88%, 11.
46%, and 10.
42% respectively.
, 10.
42% and 9.
90%
.
The number of anti-epidemic drugs is significantly higher than that of other types of drugs, which fully reflects the importance of anti-epidemic drugs in the entire livestock production process
.
3.
Veterinary drug formulations: TOP20 raw materials account for half of the country, and epidemic prevention raw materials account for up to 40% In terms of the frequency of use of raw materials, the 20 varieties have a high demand for epidemic prevention raw materials
.
The 42 kinds of veterinary medicines for epidemic prevention have a total of 317 Chinese herbal medicine ingredients, involving a total of 129 types of Chinese herbal medicines
.
Among the top 20 varieties of raw material usage frequency (see Figure 6), licorice, skullcap, rhubarb, coptis, forsythia, cork, platycodon, gardenia, honeysuckle, and Banlangen are the most frequently used
.
Among the 42 veterinary drug prescriptions for epidemic prevention, the frequency of TOP20 varieties accounted for nearly half, accounting for 46.
69%
.
Among them, the appearance frequency of Forsythia, Gardenia, Platycodon, Daqingye, Banlangen, Coptidis, Scutellaria, and Honeysuckle, which are the raw materials of general anti-epidemic traditional Chinese medicine, accounted for 40.
00% of the TOP20 varieties.

.
4.
Analysis of raw materials: the market will still run at a high level before the new production, and the market of some varieties will be adjusted after the new production Figure 7: From January 2019 to April 2022, the market changes of Cork, Gardenia, Banlangen, Rhubarb, and Scutellaria Scutellariae: Overall The annual consumption is maintained at around 10,000 tons.
In recent years, due to the impact of the epidemic, the market demand has grown significantly, and the social demand has exceeded 10,500 tons
.
In particular, the rapid rise of the market in 2020 has greatly stimulated the enthusiasm of farmers in the production area, and the planting area has spread rapidly to the surrounding areas centered on the main production area
.
It is expected that the market will continue to run at a high level before the new production this year.
After the new production, as the supply of goods continues to respond to the market, the market will begin to gradually adjust
.
Rhubarb: The overall annual consumption is maintained at around 8,000 tons.
Due to the sluggish market conditions in the past few years, the production in various production areas has been reduced.
Although the market conditions have rebounded in the past two years, farmers in the production areas are not very enthusiastic about planting, and production capacity has recovered.
The pace is still slow
.
The current market conditions are more attractive to farmers in the production areas.
It is expected that the production capacity of each production area will increase significantly in the past two years, and the market will continue to rise slowly before new production this year
.
Huang Bai: The overall annual consumption is maintained at around 3,500 tons.
Affected by the epidemic in the past two years, the customs clearance ports of various countries have been controlled to a large extent, and the resources in the North Korean production area cannot be replenished in time.
In addition, the domestic resource reserves are declining year by year, driving the market conditions to rise steadily
.
At present, the border ports of North Korea are still in a state of blockade, and it is expected that the cork market will continue to rise steadily this year
.
Gardenia: The overall annual consumption is maintained at around 5,000 tons.
Affected by the epidemic in the past two years, social demand has increased significantly
.
Due to the impact of climate change and precipitation in 2021, the fruit setting rate of plants will decrease by about 25% compared with 2020, resulting in a significant decrease in production capacity in that year
.
In addition, production has also been reduced in recent years, and the market has begun to rise rapidly amid weak inventories and declining production
.
Due to the large amount of gardenia on the ground and the relatively abundant rainfall this year, it is expected that the market will start to adjust after the new crop is produced this year.

.
Banlangen: The overall annual consumption is maintained at around 30,000 tons.
Affected by the epidemic in 2020, the market price of Banlangen has rapidly risen from 8.
5 yuan to 25 yuan.
The short-term rapid increase in the market stimulated the production area to vigorously produce, causing the market to fall into a downturn again in 2021
.
Due to the low difficulty of planting isatidis and the wide coverage of production areas, it is expected that the market will fluctuate in the range of 10-15 yuan before the new production this year, and the production capacity will begin to adjust after the new production
.
V.
Summary 1.
The urgent need for epidemic prevention of Chinese veterinary drugs The proportion of anti-epidemic drugs in Chinese veterinary drugs is as high as 21.
88%, ranking first in all kinds of drugs, which shows the importance of its status
.
Spring is the peak season for the demand for such Chinese herbal medicines, and once avian influenza spreads, the demand for anti-epidemic Chinese herbal medicines such as honeysuckle, skullcap, forsythia, and licorice will increase
.
2.
There may be a conflict with the supply of raw materials for the prevention and control of the new crown epidemic.
The fight against the new crown epidemic for more than two years has made the supply of various anti-epidemic Chinese herbal medicines tight
.
In particular, the stocks of forsythia, cork, turmeric and other varieties are empty, and the prices are running at a high level.
If avian flu strikes again, it will inevitably exacerbate the tight supply of related raw materials, and the industry cannot help it
.
3.
Differentiated guarantee of quality level is the best way to solve practical difficulties.
The quality requirements of Chinese veterinary drugs for raw materials of traditional Chinese medicinal materials are generally lower than those of medicinal channels.
For example, most of Scutellaria baicalensis needs an annual production, and even fresh Scutellaria baicalensis, Forsythia, Codonopsis and Licorice Usually only need to collect goods, or even scraps, which to a certain extent alleviates the competition for raw materials with medicinal channels
.
Of course, the origin and supply base should also consciously distinguish the quality difference between medicinal and veterinary channels, strive to make the best use of everything, and make every effort to ensure the supply
.
(Unless otherwise stated in the text, the data are all from the big data of the pharmaceutical industry in Tiandi Yuntu)