On the rising space of corn in the second half of the year

Introduction: since November last year, Qu Xiaofeng, wholesale market information department of Jilin grain center, auction activities of stale grain and stale grain have been held in succession all over the country As a major corn producing province, Jilin Province actively sells stale grain in accordance with national policies and wins the stage victory of sales work So, how about the operation of the first grain price bidding in Jilin Province? What is the possible impact on the market of corn in the second grain auction in Jilin Province? These are the most concerned issues of corn operators Based on these problems and the development of corn market, the author analyzes the following: 1 The first grain bidding operation in Jilin Province in 2002: On May 17, 2002, the first grain auction fair in Jilin Province traded 1.08 million tons of grain, with a turnover of more than 1.011 billion yuan, including 1.07 million tons of corn, with an average transaction price of 929.5 yuan / ton, with a turnover of 995 million yuan; 10000 tons of rice, with a turnover of 16 million yuan At present, these grains are in the delivery stage, transported to the port or southern provinces by rail in batches District According to the statistics of the wholesale market of Jilin grain center, the main transportation directions of the competitive corn trading are Dalian port, Guangdong, Fujian, Beijing, Anhui, Shandong, Xinjiang, etc For more than a month, the domestic corn shipped from Jilin Province to other provinces is basically the old corn traded by bidding It has become a beautiful scenery in this year's grain market to buy high-quality and cheap grain by bidding 2 Corn sales and influencing factors in Jilin Province: from January to May this year, domestic corn sales in Jilin Province, the main production area, decreased, and exports grew rapidly Mainly in terms of sales, from January to may, the cumulative sales and exports of grain were about 7.2 billion jin, 2.1 billion jin less than the same period last year Among them, domestic sales reached 3.1 billion jin, a year-on-year decrease of 3.4 billion jin Exports reached 4.06 billion jin, an increase of 1.38 billion jin year on year This year, the main reasons for the sluggish domestic sales of corn in Jilin Province are as follows: first, the overall processing capacity of the feed industry has declined, and the demand is not strong; second, a large number of sales of feed substitutes such as wheat have increased the supply, while the reason for the increase of China's corn export is due to the positive impact of policy factors 3 Domestic market transactions: At present, Jilin corn market in the main production area has a stable transaction price, with an average transaction price of 965 yuan / ton, a minimum transaction price of 950 yuan / ton and a maximum transaction price of 980 yuan / ton; Dalian port closing price of 1040-1050 yuan / ton; Qinhuangdao closing price of 1130-1140 yuan / ton; Fuzhou market price in the main corn market area continues to rise, with a transaction price of 1170-1190 yuan / ton; Huangpu port of Guangzhou, 1120-1140 yuan / ton; Huanghuai port of North China, 1120-1140 yuan / ton The price of corn in the region is basically stable The ex warehouse price in the south of Shandong Province is 980-1000 yuan / ton, and the trading volume is reduced Since June, China's corn market has been booming However, from the perspective of market development, it has not risen as expected by market participants The closing price of Dalian port has never exceeded 1050 yuan / ton, and the southern sales areas have also been hovering at the relatively high price of corn this year, with the highest price in Fuqing market of 1190 yuan / ton Although the inventory of corn in the northern region increased in June, it is still difficult to sell it domestically at a favorable price The grain traded on the spot market is mainly the old corn for export and bidding 4 International market: in the near future, corn spot and futures in the United States continue to rise, attracting the attention of the industry Asian foragers said in early July that if U.S food prices rise and prices from other regions are more competitive, Asian buyers may look for corn from other regions At the end of June, the CNF price of China's feed corn in South Korea was $105 per ton, while that in the United States was as high as $117-120 per ton, far higher than that in China In addition, in the world grain and oil market monthly, the U.S Department of agriculture predicted that China's corn export volume in 2002 / 03 would be increased by 2 million tons to 6 million tons from May All kinds of signs show that at present, the price comparative advantage of Chinese corn is outstanding, and it has the strength to attract Asian buyers to buy From January to may, China's corn exports totaled 3.23 million tons, and the corn export situation in June is still optimistic It is believed that as a large agricultural country, China's corn will gradually move to the international stage and gain more shares in the international market The main factors affecting the corn market in the second half of the year are as follows: 1 Grain auction: it is reported that Jilin Province will hold the second 2002 grain auction fair in Changchun from July 17 to 18, 2002 The variety of this auction sale is the domestic high-quality corn produced before 2000 Although the specific quantity has not been announced, it is estimated that it may be about 1 million tons according to the well-informed people The corn will have an impact on market prices over the next two months 2 Central Plains corn listing: after September, the corn of Hebei and other Central Plains five provinces began to be listed one after another As the price of corn acquisition in these regions is liberalized this year, the price of corn will be more affected by the market The quantity and price of corn in the five provinces of Central Plains will also restrain the sales of corn in the north 3 Imported corn: it is reported that China has issued low-tariff import quotas for agricultural products, including quotas for state-owned companies, as part of its commitment to join the world trade organization These quotas are also known as tariff rate quotas, in which 68% of the corn quota is allocated to state-owned companies In the second half of the year, it is certain that imported corn will enter the domestic market, but due to time, price and other factors, the quantity of imported corn will not be too large However, when analyzing the supply quantity of corn in the second half of the year, we must consider the impact of imported corn on the domestic market Corn market forecast in the second half of the year: July to September is the golden season for corn sales in the north A large number of grain sales will provide sufficient supply for grain enterprises in the south, which is conducive to the development and production of feed processing enterprises Traditional festival demand factors such as national day and Spring Festival will stimulate the growth of demand Corn exports will continue At present, the situation of corn market is optimistic and the demand for corn is strong Market people are optimistic about the corn market in the second half of the year The author believes that in the second half of the year, the stable increase of corn price will be the main keynote, but the space for the increase will not be too large 1 In the first half of the year, the state made every effort to reduce the cost of all links of corn through relevant policies, with a clear purpose to improve the competitiveness of domestic corn by reducing the cost of corn Reducing the production and sales cost of corn in China has always been one of the most concerned issues of the relevant government departments This year, China has successively exempted the railway transportation construction fund, the export tax rebate of bulk grain, etc., greatly reducing the cost of China's corn in the circulation link, thus reducing the sales price of corn 2 In April of this year, Jilin provincial food production and circulation working conference decided to make major adjustments to the autumn grain purchase policy First, the price of grain purchase protection will be reasonably lowered This year, the level of autumn grain purchase protection price will be lowered, which is determined by the normal annual grain cost plus appropriate income Second, it puts forward new requirements for the purchase grade and moisture content of autumn grain The third is to carry out the pilot work of direct subsidies to farmers Due to the adjustment of autumn grain purchase policy, the impact on grain market will be reflected, and the cost of grain purchase will be further reduced This also indicates that the market price of corn at the beginning of next year will be lower than the average level of this year 3 Price prediction of the second auction of aged grains in Jilin Province: how many corn will participate in the second auction of aged grains in Jilin Province, the main corn producing province? How much should the transaction price be accepted by the market? According to the market situation, we can make an estimate of the transaction price of this auction: the base price of the third-class corn in the first auction of aged grain in Jilin is 875 yuan / ton, and the average transaction price of the corn through the auction is 929 yuan / ton, and the average spot price at that time is about 945 yuan / ton; at present, the average vehicle plate delivery price in Jilin is 965 yuan / ton, although the base price has not been announced, but , the grain of this bidding is all equivalent corn, and the quality is relatively good 7 August and September are also the peak season of Northern Corn Southern transportation, and the market sales situation is better than May Therefore, it is expected that the average price of this bidding will still have a good performance Of course, there are many factors that affect the market price, especially the way of competitive trading, many random factors are unpredictable, but no matter what, the increase of demand will promote the price rise, and the price discovery must conform to the development law of the market, only in this way can it be recognized and accepted by the market.