Oil prices may fluctuate around $100

oil prices on the 22nd surge, so that many industry veterans are unexpectedThe prevailing view is that the record surge in crude oil futures on the day was related to short-term returnactivit satbacks at the expiration date of the contractLeaving aside the unusual volatility, which is more like a "one-off", industry insiders believe that oil prices could fluctuate around $100 in the near future against a backdrop of unpredictable impacts of the huge US rescue plan, continued volatility in the dollar and uncertain world economic outlookmany technosis pointed out that the 22nd oil price surge and the "doomsday contract" before the expiration of the short position has a lot to do, because if not closed the position must be physical deliveryMrSchlock, an energy analyst who has been a trader on the New York Mercantile Exchange, said there was a "historic draw" on the New York crude oil market on Monday because fundamentals could not explain the current situationthe difference between contracts also seems to be a bit of a differenceAt the close of trading on the 22nd, the benchmark October contract was trading at $120.92, up to $130, compared with a nearly $12 difference for the November contractAs a result, market participants also believe that Monday's rally is a forced short marketanalysts say oil prices have rebounded in the past few days as investors worry that a U.Sbail-out could worsen the country's deficit, as well as push ingest the dollar and push up inflationAs a result, some investors have begun to rethink their money in commodity markets in search of safe havensFlynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading, said the recent strength in oil prices was a response to the dollar's decline, as the government's plan to bail out the financial sector was seen as potentially inflationary, making commodities a hedge against the dollar, at least for the short termIn traders' eyes, the US is willing to add at least $1, 000bn more to its balance sheet, and there is no alternative to issuing dollars to pay it off, triggering runaway inflationLynch, president of Strategic Energy and Economic Research, a U.Sresearch firm, said the energy market has benefited from the shift of money to safe investmentsThe dollar fell again as investors turned to commodities and the market appeared to be back to the cycle that pushed oil prices to record highs earlier in 2008billionaire investor in the energy market said on Monday that oil prices would return to $150 a barrel in 2009 despite global economic turmoil, thanks to limited supply of new crude and stable global demandMr Pickens said OPEC would try to keep the floor price at $100 a barrel, however, analysts do not appear to be optimistic that oil prices will return to record levels in the near future, largely because of uncertainty over the multiple factors that could push up pricesfirst point, it remains to be seen whether a global bail-out will push up inflationThere is a view that the global slowdown that has pulled commodity prices in recent weeks has not subsided, and that relative weakness in other economies outside the US could support the dollar while keeping global inflation out of controlanother important factor comes from the financial sideAfter the collapse of Wall Street's five largest investment banks, the number of large institutions active in the oil market has decreased significantly, and more institutions have begun to cut and deleverage operations to reduce riskAnalysts said the lehman's collapse and Merrill's acquisition suggested that the big banks might be unwilling or unable to absorb debt and increase trading positions, which would have an impact on the oil futures market, which has traditionally been leveragedSuch a situation could deter more speculators from short-term operations in the oil marketthis week (the week of September 22-26), Goldman Sachs and Big Wall's two largest investment banks, which have been among the most active institutional investors in the oil market and the two largest investment banks in the energy market, have also been forced to transformAs a result, industry insiders point out that with the collapse of Wall Street's independent investment banking model, commodity markets, which have been hit by large outflows of speculative money, are likely to come under more pressurethe Fed's latest series of actions suggest that the administration wants to reduce risks in the financial sector, at least in the short term, which would mean less money available to market participants, including commodity marketsGoldman Sachs and Damore's ability to withstand risk, although it can still engage in commodity trading, will be significantly limited when it becomes a bank holding companyThere is no doubt that liquidity will be reduced in all areas of the financial markets, including commodity markets, said Mr Morley, manager of Quantum, the fund companyboosted by expectations that U.S crude inventories will fall by 2 million barrels in recent weeks, NYMEX crude futures broke $107 a barrel in Asian electronic stakes on Thursday, but the rally was dampened by a rebound in the U.S dollar link 　　New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) crude oil futures rose above $107 a barrel in Electronic trading in Asia on Thursday, as expectations of a decline in U.S crude inventories in recent weeks offset doubts about the U.S government's financial rescue plan , however, the rally in crude oil futures was dampened by a rebound in the dollar 11:57 a.m Beijing time, NYMEX November crude futures rose 44 cents to $107.05 a barrel The contract fell $2.76, or 2.52 percent, to $106.61 a barrel, with trading ranges ranging from $104.05 to $109.58 　　NYMEX's October light, low-sulfur crude oil futures contract expired on the 22nd, its day settlement price rose $16.37, or 15.7 percent, to $120.92 a barrel, both in the dollar or percentage gains, the exchange's highest one-day level since the launch of the crude oil futures contract in 1983 Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) November Brent crude futures rose 43 cents to $103.51 a barrel The contract fell $2.96 to $103.08 at the 23-day settlement, with a range of $100.57 to $106.09 "Uncertainty over the progress of the U.S troubled asset acquisition program and concerns about the outlook for the international economy continue to weigh on oil prices," analysts said market concerns the U.S Department of Energy will be released on the evening of the 24th weekly energy inventory report Analysts expect crude inventories to fall by 2 million barrels in the coming week, gasoline inventories by 4 million barrels and distillate inventories by 1.5 million barrels oil prices on the 22nd surge, so that many industry veterans are unexpected The prevailing view is that the record surge in crude oil futures on the day was related to short-term returnactivit satbacks at the expiration date of the contract Leaving aside the unusual volatility, which is more like a "one-off", industry insiders believe that oil prices could fluctuate around $100 in the near future against a backdrop of unpredictable impacts of the huge US rescue plan, continued volatility in the dollar and uncertain world economic outlook many technosis pointed out that the 22nd oil price surge and the "doomsday contract" before the expiration of the short position has a lot to do, because if not closed the position must be physical delivery Mr Schlock, an energy analyst who has been a trader on the New York Mercantile Exchange, said there was a "historic draw" on the New York crude oil market on Monday because fundamentals could not explain the current situation the difference between contracts also seems to be a bit of a difference At the close of trading on the 22nd, the benchmark October contract was trading at $120.92, up to $130, compared with a nearly $12 difference for the November contract As a result, market participants also believe that Monday's rally is a forced short market analysts say oil prices have rebounded in the past few days as investors worry that a U.S bail-out could worsen the country's deficit, as well as push ingest the dollar and push up inflation As a result, some investors have begun to rethink their money in commodity markets in search of safe havens 　　Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading, said the recent strength in oil prices was a response to the dollar's decline, as the government's plan to bail out the financial sector was seen as potentially inflationary, making commodities a hedge against the dollar, at least for the short term In traders' eyes, the US is willing to add at least $1, 000bn more to its balance sheet, and there is no alternative to issuing dollars to pay it off, triggering runaway inflation Lynch, president of Strategic Energy and Economic Research, a U.S research firm , said the energy market has benefited from the shift of money to safe investments The dollar fell again as investors turned to commodities and the market appeared to be back to the cycle that pushed oil prices to record highs earlier in 2008 billionaire investor in the energy market said on Monday that oil prices would return to $150 a barrel in 2009 despite global economic turmoil, thanks to limited supply of new crude and stable global demand Mr Pickens said OPEC would try to keep the floor price at $100 a barrel , however, analysts do not appear to be optimistic that oil prices will return to record levels in the near future, largely because of uncertainty over the multiple factors that could push up prices first point, it remains to be seen whether a global bail-out will push up inflation There is a view that the global slowdown that has pulled commodity prices in recent weeks has not subsided, and that relative weakness in other economies outside the US could support the dollar while keeping global inflation out of control another important factor comes from the financial side After the collapse of Wall Street's five largest investment banks, the number of large institutions active in the oil market has decreased significantly, and more institutions have begun to cut and deleverage operations to reduce risk Analysts said the lehman's collapse and Merrill's acquisition suggested that the big banks might be unwilling or unable to absorb debt and increase trading positions, which would have an impact on the oil futures market, which has traditionally been leveraged Such a situation could deter more speculators from short-term operations in the oil market this week (the week of September 22-26), Goldman Sachs and Big Wall's two largest investment banks, which have been among the most active institutional investors in the oil market and the two largest investment banks in the energy market, have also been forced to transform As a result, industry insiders point out that with the collapse of Wall Street's independent investment banking model, commodity markets, which have been hit by large outflows of speculative money, are likely to come under more pressure the Fed's latest series of actions suggest that the administration wants to reduce risks in the financial sector, at least in the short term, which would mean less money available to market participants, including commodity markets Goldman Sachs and Damore's ability to withstand risk, although it can still engage in commodity trading, will be significantly limited when it becomes a bank holding company There is no doubt that liquidity will be reduced in all areas of the financial markets, including commodity markets, said Mr Morley, manager of Quantum, the fund company boosted by expectations that U.S crude inventories will fall by 2 million barrels in recent weeks, NYMEX crude futures broke $107 a barrel in Asian electronic stakes on Thursday, but the rally was dampened by a rebound in the U.S dollar link 　　New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) crude oil futures rose above $107 a barrel in Electronic trading in Asia on Thursday, as expectations of a decline in U.S crude inventories in recent weeks offset doubts about the U.S government's financial rescue plan , however, the rally in crude oil futures was dampened by a rebound in the dollar 11:57 a.m Beijing time, NYMEX November crude futures rose 44 cents to $107.05 a barrel The contract fell $2.76, or 2.52 percent, to $106.61 a barrel, with trading ranges ranging from $104.05 to $109.58 　　NYMEX's October light, low-sulfur crude oil futures contract expired on the 22nd, its day settlement price rose $16.37, or 15.7 percent, to $120.92 a barrel, both in the dollar or percentage gains, the exchange's highest one-day level since the launch of the crude oil futures contract in 1983 Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) November Brent crude futures rose 43 cents to $103.51 a barrel The contract fell $2.96 to $103.08 at the 23-day settlement, with a range of $100.57 to $106.09 "Uncertainty over the progress of the U.S troubled asset acquisition program and concerns about the outlook for the international economy continue to weigh on oil prices," analysts said market concerns the U.S Department of Energy will be released on the evening of the 24th weekly energy inventory report Analysts expect crude inventories to fall by 2 million barrels in the coming week, gasoline inventories by 4 million barrels and distillate inventories by 1.5 million barrels (Zhu Zhouliang)