Oil market outlook in April (4.17)

OA show ('918 '); Hello everyone, I'm very glad to have the opportunity to host this column, and hope to have more exchanges with all colleagues You must be very concerned about the quantity of domestic orders in February and March According to the statistics of our department, 1.2-1.3 million tons of soybeans have been imported into the United States, and about 500000 tons in South America, with a total of 1.75 million tons Before the end of June, these goods can basically arrive at Chinese ports Among them, there will be 290000 tons of American soybeans in Dalian port, 400000 tons in Shandong and 80000 tons in Guangdong April is the peak time of arrival More than 80% of American soybeans will arrive at all ports in the country this month From late May to June, there were relatively few domestic arrivals, mainly South American soybeans You must be very concerned about how long this batch of soybeans can maintain domestic production We think that the imported soybeans can be digested completely at the end of June and the first ten days of July Because from October last year to February this year, China imported a total of 2.36 million tons of soybeans, with an average of 472000 tons per month In the context of large consumption of domestic soybeans at the same time, there was a rush to buy imported soybeans after the Spring Festival, which made the price of imported soybeans rise sharply, indicating that the supply of imported soybeans per month in China without a large number of domestic soybeans The quantity should be kept at about 500000 tons Because the weather may be relatively dry during the soybean planting period in the United States, some funds in the United States take the opportunity to gradually raise the price of soybeans in South America As a result, the price of soybeans in South America remains high, far from the expected purchase price of domestic manufacturers Therefore, domestic manufacturers have less orders for soybeans in South America that can arrive in Hong Kong in late June and July If a large number of manufacturers do not enter into the market at the end of April, they will still buy soybeans In July, the situation of purchasing imported soybeans after the spring festival may reappear You can pay attention to this market change The rapeseed market has been relatively sluggish since December last year, and has only started in the early stage, mainly because of the excessive domestic import From December to February, China imported 1.74 million tons in only three months, compared with 2.95 million tons in 1999 There are a lot of arrivals at the port In order to sell as soon as possible, traders have to fight against each other's prices As a result, the price of rapeseed has dropped, which has led to a sharp decline in domestic oil prices Many manufacturers have suffered heavy losses After the Spring Festival, in the context of large-scale purchase of rapeseed meal by foreign investors, the price of rapeseed meal rose sharply In March, only 200000 tons of rapeseed arrived, and the accumulated rapeseed in the port in the early stage was basically consumed Recently, the oil price also slowly rose from the bottom, and the price of rapeseed in the port rose In April, the price of rapeseed should keep rising slowly, but it should not be placed on the high target, because the domestic rapeseed will be available in May Soybean meal prices can still be maintained in the first ten days of April, and should start to fall gradually in the middle and last ten days of April The fluctuation range is 1800-1880 In May, the factory prices of some major production areas, such as Shandong and Dalian, may break 1800, but they should not be too deep It is mainly due to the large domestic soybean purchase in April, resulting in excessive increase of soybean meal supply in a short period of time In addition, the price of soybean oil may further rise, making the price of soybean meal and soybean oil slightly changed Oil prices should keep rising slowly in April, but there is very limited space for them to rise After China's accession to the WTO, the number of vegetable oil quotas and the listing of domestic rapeseed in may have greatly limited the space for oil prices to rise It is only because the consumption of imported rapeseed is exhausted that the decrease of the supply of rapeseed oil may increase the oil price China feed industry information network up (author:)