Official data: Guangdong Province in June pig population rate of 33%, 51% of breeding base confidence is not enough

First, the first half of 2019 production and marketing situationbaA1pig production capacity decreased, concentrated column to increase the supply ofbaAin the first half of 2019 Guangdong pig concentrated to accelerate the output, supply increased, according to the first half of the vegetable basket pig base data, the first half of the pig column volume increased by 14% yoy, pig sales head weight of 112.2 kgAs a result of the first half of the pig breeding base through the closure of the field epidemic prevention, the suspension of the purchase of piglets, pig breeds to implement a "only out" management approach, resulting in a sustained decline in pig production capacityAs of the end of June, the sow stock rate was 47%, the piglet supplement rate was 96%, the column weight was 108.8 kg, and the overall pig stock rate was 33%Small and medium-sized farmers in the supplementary column still hold a wait-and-see attitude, the province's first half of the pig column volume decreased by 4% YoY, the end of June, the column fell 32% year-on-yearAccording to the Analysis of pig production and marketing situation in Guangdong Province in June 2019, the confidence index of pig farming in the province fell to 46.3 in June, in the general confidence index (40-65) rangeAt present, only 29% of breeding bases have better confidence, 20% of breeding bases confidence in general, 51% of the base confidence is not enoughThe pressure of pig breeding base increasedIn this period, the production base of the province's aquaculture pressure index reached 23.7, an increase of 8.2 over the previous period, in the larger range of breeding pressurebaA
2The market maintains the "turning meat" circulation mode, the trading volume of white meat is active
baA to cut off the spread of swine fever in Africa, the government in late 2018 to guide the circulation of pigs to change, cancel the green channel preferential policies for live livestock and poultry, encourage the quarantine of qualified pork products and farms to slaughterhouse "point-to-point transfer" mode, last October in neighboring Hunan Province, the first African swine plague epidemic has been suspended so far, Guangdong Province has been suspended the wholesale market for pigs for nearly 8 months In the first half of the province's pig transfer is still banned, continue to "turn meat" as a market circulation mode, promoting the market white meat trading According to the provincial monitoring system data, the wholesale volume of white meat in the first half of 2019 rose overall, except for february affected by the Spring Festival transaction volume fell month-on-month, March-June all rose, the end of June than January rose 27%, the first half of the year rose 26% baA
　　3 Pig out price, wholesale price of white meat and pork retail price increased baA in the first half of this year the province's average price column is 14 yuan / kg, up 13% YoY, the first half of the domestic African swine fever epidemic, the first quarter of pig concentrated column increased, market supply The total amount increased, the price fell accordingly, in February has dropped to 12.2 yuan / kg; In terms of wholesale prices in the white meat market, the wholesale price of white meat in the first half of the year was 16.7 yuan/kg, up 12% YoY In the retail market, the average retail price of pork in the province in the first half of the year was 34.2 yuan/kg, up 0.9% year-on-year baA
　　4 Pig grain ratio in the first half of the year, pig farming in the second quarter began to profit
baA the first half of the average price of corn 2.1 yuan / kg, a slight increase of 1% YoY, the wholesale average price of soybean meal was 3.1 yuan / kg, the same as the same period last year In the first half of the year, the pig grain ratio began to rise month after falling to its lowest point of 5.9:1 in February, and was all in the green normal area, with the first half of the year's pig grain ratio averaging 6.9:1, up 13% year-on-year baA
　　The profits of pigheads fell In the first half of the year, the average cost of monitoring pig breeding head input 1548.4 yuan, of which the feed fee 790.1 yuan / head, pig seedling fee 442.2 yuan / head, vaccine and veterinary medicine 139.2 yuan / head, labor cost 84.4 yuan / head, other costs 92.6 yuan / head March pig breeding monitoring nod to a loss of 216 yuan, but since April pig farming began to make a profit, to the end of June, the first half of the profit rose to a peak of 297 yuan / head, the first half of the profit of 22.4 yuan, 52.6 yuan less than the overall 2018 baA
　　Second, the second half of 2019 market forecast baA the second half of the peak pig prices will hit 22 yuan / kg On the supply side, affected by African swine fever, some small retail farmers in the first half of the year cleared the column, large-scale bases gradually reduce production capacity, the second half of the pig supply tightening situation will be highlighted one after another On the demand side, affected by the outbreak, although a small number of consumers to reduce pork purchases, but thanks to the government and major media is leading, clear African swine fever does not infect people, coupled with increased demand for pork processing products at the end of the year, pork consumption demand is expected to be basically stable in the second half of the year With the supply of pigs significantly reduced, it is expected that the peak price of pigs in the second half of the year will hit 22 yuan/kg baA 1, the first half of 2019 production and marketing situation baA 1 pig production capacity decreased, concentrated column to increase the supply of baA in the first half of 2019 Guangdong pig concentrated to accelerate out of the column, supply increased, according to the first half of the vegetable basket pig base data, the first half of the pig output increased by 14% year-on-year, pig sales head weight of 112.2 kg As a result of the first half of the pig breeding base through the closure of the field epidemic prevention, the suspension of the purchase of piglets, pig breeds to implement a "only out" management approach, resulting in a sustained decline in pig production capacity As of the end of June, the sow stock rate was 47%, the piglet supplement rate was 96%, the column weight was 108.8 kg, and the overall pig stock rate was 33% Small and medium-sized farmers in the supplementary column still hold a wait-and-see attitude, the province's first half of the pig column volume decreased by 4% YoY, the end of June, the column fell 32% year-on-year According to the Analysis of pig production and marketing situation in Guangdong Province in June 2019, the confidence index of pig farming in the province fell to 46.3 in June, in the general confidence index (40-65) range At present, only 29% of breeding bases have better confidence, 20% of breeding bases confidence in general, 51% of the base confidence is not enough The pressure of pig breeding base increased In this period, the production base of the province's aquaculture pressure index reached 23.7, an increase of 8.2 over the previous period, in the larger range of breeding pressure baA
　　2 The market maintains the "turning meat" circulation mode, the trading volume of white meat is active
baA to cut off the spread of swine fever in Africa, the government in late 2018 to guide the circulation of pigs to change, cancel the green channel preferential policies for live livestock and poultry, encourage the quarantine of qualified pork products and farms to slaughterhouse "point-to-point transfer" mode, last October in neighboring Hunan Province, the first African swine plague epidemic has been suspended so far, Guangdong Province has been suspended the wholesale market for pigs for nearly 8 months In the first half of the province's pig transfer is still banned, continue to "turn meat" as a market circulation mode, promoting the market white meat trading According to the provincial monitoring system data, the wholesale volume of white meat in the first half of 2019 rose overall, except for february affected by the Spring Festival transaction volume fell month-on-month, March-June all rose, the end of June than January rose 27%, the first half of the year rose 26% baA
　　3 Pig out price, wholesale price of white meat and pork retail price increased baA in the first half of this year the province's average price column is 14 yuan / kg, up 13% YoY, the first half of the domestic African swine fever epidemic, the first quarter of pig concentrated column increased, market supply The total amount increased, the price fell accordingly, in February has dropped to 12.2 yuan / kg; In terms of wholesale prices in the white meat market, the wholesale price of white meat in the first half of the year was 16.7 yuan/kg, up 12% YoY In the retail market, the average retail price of pork in the province in the first half of the year was 34.2 yuan/kg, up 0.9% year-on-year baA
　　4 Pig grain ratio in the first half of the year, pig farming in the second quarter began to profit
baA the first half of the average price of corn 2.1 yuan / kg, a slight increase of 1% YoY, the wholesale average price of soybean meal was 3.1 yuan / kg, the same as the same period last year In the first half of the year, the pig grain ratio began to rise month after falling to its lowest point of 5.9:1 in February, and was all in the green normal area, with the first half of the year's pig grain ratio averaging 6.9:1, up 13% year-on-year baA
　　The profits of pigheads fell In the first half of the year, the average cost of monitoring pig breeding head input 1548.4 yuan, of which the feed fee 790.1 yuan / head, pig seedling fee 442.2 yuan / head, vaccine and veterinary medicine 139.2 yuan / head, labor cost 84.4 yuan / head, other costs 92.6 yuan / head March pig breeding monitoring nod to a loss of 216 yuan, but since April pig farming began to make a profit, to the end of June, the first half of the profit rose to a peak of 297 yuan / head, the first half of the profit of 22.4 yuan, 52.6 yuan less than the overall 2018 baA
　　Second, the second half of 2019 market forecast baA the second half of the peak pig prices will hit 22 yuan / kg On the supply side, affected by African swine fever, some small retail farmers in the first half of the year cleared the column, large-scale bases gradually reduce production capacity, the second half of the pig supply tightening situation will be highlighted one after another On the demand side, affected by the outbreak, although a small number of consumers to reduce pork purchases, but thanks to the government and major media is leading, clear African swine fever does not infect people, coupled with increased demand for pork processing products at the end of the year, pork consumption demand is expected to be basically stable in the second half of the year With the supply of pigs significantly reduced, it is expected that the peak price of pigs in the second half of the year will hit 22 yuan/kg baA