Obvious characteristics of "bull's potential peaking" in oil market

Introduction: in recent years, the domestic oil market is in the same state as Dalian futures market Recently, the domestic oil market is in the same state as Dalian futures market However, the trend of Dalian futures market is suspected of hyping the concept of GM, while the domestic spot market must always pay attention to the change of fundamentals To this end, the author reminds you to pay attention to the following points Uyu first, the trend of "near strong, far weak" in the international market is gradually emerging According to the latest report of the U.S Department of agriculture, in 2002 / 2003, South American soybean was still a harvest year The total soybean production in Brazil and Argentina reached 84.5 million tons, with an increase of 11 million tons The total soybean production in the world was 191 million tons, with an annual carry over inventory of 3065 The global soybean inventory is still at a high level in recent years Although recently, due to the decline of soybean stocks in the United States, the external market is in a strong position, but looking at the recent changes in the market, it is not difficult for insiders to find that, in terms of the current situation, the probability of the external market breaking through 600 points is still within 10%, and the South American soybean that will soon be listed cannot be ignored as a potential market pressure Uyu second, the actual supply of domestic soybean market is not tight According to the export report of the U.S Department of agriculture (which can be regarded as a relatively valuable Figure), from January 2 to February 13, 2003, China has shipped 1.92 million tons of soybeans in the United States, in addition to 1.82 million tons of soybeans that have been purchased for shipment, plus several newly purchased ships, in 2-4 In May, China will import 4 million tons of American soybeans to Hong Kong In addition, there is also a part of South American soybeans shipped in March With the actual available quantity of 1.5 million tons in China, the supply of soybeans in the domestic market is not tight Uyu third, the prospect of oil production in China is very optimistic this year From the perspective of the planting situation in China this year, the planting area of oil crops in autumn shows an increasing trend, with both soybean and cotton increasing There will be a good harvest of rapeseed in summer After June, nearly 13 million tons of rapeseed will be listed in China, 1.5 million tons more than the previous year At that time, the tight supply of oil market will undoubtedly be eased Uyu fourth, the large amount of palm oil quota in China will increase This year, the oil quota in China has been issued, and the amount of palm oil quota is large, 2.6 million tons At present, the port price of palm oil is 5000-5100 yuan / ton, with a difference of 500-700 yuan / ton between the price of secondary soybean oil and cottonseed oil After the temperature rises, the consumption of palm oil will inevitably increase, which will play a significant role in increasing the total oil supply At present, China's oil reserve rotation work has begun This situation is bound to be based on the selling of existing reserves Naturally, there will be a lot of pressure when the reserve oil is put into the market In my opinion, in the current situation, the concept of futures market speculation is a bit irrational Imagine, when the price of imported soybeans in the spot market falls to 2200 yuan / ton, where can 2600 yuan / ton of domestic soybeans be found? According to the production situation of oil and grease at home and abroad, the author thinks that the characteristics of "cattle's potential to see the top" in the oil and grease market are obvious For small and medium-sized oil processing enterprises and traders, they should pay special attention to the import and export situation, and should not have the illusion of greedy profits Futures market speculators should also see a good close, so as not to deal with the hands of soybeans and headache uYU
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