Now is the most difficult period of animal husbandry since the reform and opening up

Since last year, the development of animal husbandry in China has encountered unprecedented difficulties It can be said that the development of animal husbandry in recent two years is the most difficult period since the reform and opening up, and the most problems and contradictions encountered First of all, the growth of consumption is weak, and pigs have been in a state of comprehensive loss due to the impact of cyclical fluctuations Before May this year, they had a serious loss for seven consecutive months, and the situation has improved since May, but up to now, the loss situation of the whole industry has not been reversed Therefore, the duration of the cyclical fluctuation of pigs this time is much longer than the previous several times, so we need to carefully analyze the new situation and problems of the cyclical fluctuation In the whole animal husbandry, the situation of pig and poultry is very bad, only beef and mutton production is very good According to ihz's analysis, since last year, in addition to the periodic fluctuation of pigs and the impact of poultry emergencies, there is also a very important factor, which is the policy factor After the introduction of the eight Central regulations, it has a direct and important impact on the consumption of animal products, but I think this influence is a positive influence We have a big bubble in the consumption of animal products in the past Foam consists of several aspects: first, wasteful consumption is the consumption of public funds This ratio should be small Second, excessive consumption In the past, every year during the Spring Festival, even in the daily life, government organizations and units have to buy groups for employees, such as buying meat and eggs Basically, large and small units have such benefits Whether you have it at home or not, it's excessive consumption After the introduction of the eight Central regulations, the bubble was crushed I think the total sum of the two pieces is absolutely not a decimal No organization has yet made an accurate judgement on this figure, but I think that the proportion of this number in the entire consumption of animal products is not small After the bubble was broken, the contradiction between oversupply and demand became even more prominent It should be pointed out that from now on, whether it is production or feed, we must eliminate this bubble when we predict and calculate the consumption of livestock products in the future In the past few decades, this volume has been included in the total consumption, so I think the impact of this factor cannot be underestimated Ihz in addition, people's living habits are also undergoing profound changes, especially in the new generation, many of the consumption of livestock products will not be done, so the actual consumption of this area is also decreasing because of the change of lifestyle At the same time, due to the slowdown of macroeconomic growth, the group consumption of construction sites and factories has declined significantly in the past In the past, many construction sites, whether railway or highway, including building houses or factories, consumed pork, eggs and chicken for most of the canteen group consumption This is also an important factor in the sluggish growth of consumption Second, the production capacity of livestock products is surplus The most outstanding performance is pigs At present, there are nearly 50 million sows in China Although the situation of pigs is so bad, the number of sows reduced is very limited According to 13 or 4 piglets per sow, 50 million sows can produce 30 or 40 sows per year It is obvious that the supply exceeds the demand The same is true for broilers Under the severe impact of h7n9, 1.5 million sets of breeding chickens were imported last year, and the production capacity is still in serious excess Ihz, however, the adjustment of animal husbandry production capacity is not as simple as that of industry, so it is easy to do, and there is no place to start to adjust production capacity, but this problem must be paid attention to and studied Due to the influence of the production situation of animal husbandry, the growth rate of the whole feed industry has slowed down dramatically, and even some feed products have declined significantly One of the special reasons for the continuous growth of pig feed this year is that many pig breeding enterprises have a very serious pressure on the market Many enterprises raise pigs to more than 150 kg before they go out of the market The feed consumed by one pig is almost equal to that of two pigs This year, the phenomenon of pig pressure on the market is very common If we calculate the consumption of pig feed according to the conventional method in the past, the figure is not right Ihz has a direct impact on corn consumption due to the slowdown of feed industry This year's feed consumption of corn compared with the previous year's growth rate is not very obvious From my personal point of view, although North China and Northeast China have been affected by the drought this year, and Henan, Liaoning and Jilin provinces have been seriously affected by the drought, Heilongjiang is unexpectedly good this year, so on the whole, this year's corn is still a harvest year, especially this year's corn quality in Heilongjiang is better than previous years According to the comprehensive analysis of the corn planting area and drought situation this year, the corn production this year may be slightly reduced compared with that of last year, up to several billion jin, not more than 10 billion jin The output of corn last year was 214 million tons, which should be around 210 million tons this year Today is September 22 How do you judge this year's situation? The production situation is basically clear, mainly about the price of this year's new grain on the market? I don't think the price of this year's new grain will be low I have worked in Harbin for several years, and I estimate that this year's corn opening price in Heilongjiang should not be lower than 75%, because I am not engaged in grain trade, I can only To make such a judgment rashly Although the actual production reduction in Henan, Liaoning and Jilin is not very large this year, the signal it sends will be far greater than the actual production reduction This signal has been put out for a long time and will have a direct impact on the price of new grain on the market This year, the price of new grain on the market mainly depends on the policies issued by the state The first is temporary storage price, and the second is freight subsidy What level will the temporary storage price be determined in this year? Generally speaking, it should be stable It is relatively reasonable to keep stable I think it's not right to give a higher signal and a lower one So from a scientific and reasonable point of view, it should be to keep the water level of last year Another is the freight subsidy, which will also directly affect the price of new grain At the same time, since the new warehouse capacity has increased a lot since last year, there may be a situation of grain grabbing after the new grain goes on the market Why rob at this time? What we want to rob is the price difference, which starts from September 25 this year until the official introduction of the temporary storage price, which is roughly half a month to 20 days If we press the price difference correctly, the income will not be small, so I estimate that after the new grain goes on the market this year, we may have to rob grain now The first battlefield is in Heilongjiang, but this judgment is not necessarily accurate At present, the situation of corn deep processing is not good as a whole At present, the deep processing capacity of corn in China is nearly 80 million tons, but at present, it is in a state of serious loss in the whole industry, producing alcohol and starch, generally losing 200 yuan per ton So now, although our whole corn deep processing capacity is 80 million tons, the actual consumption of corn last year is more than 50 million tons Since this year, the operating rate of corn deep processing enterprises is more than 40%, less than half It is mainly the loss of the whole industry, and the export situation is not good In the past, our annual export of alcohol was about 500000 tons, and this year it is estimated that it will be tens of thousands tons In the past, our annual export of starch was 4.5 million tons, and this year it is no more than 100000 tons The whole corn deep processing enterprise is in a state of loss in the whole industry, and this situation will not be effectively reversed in the near future At the same time, ihz has greatly increased the price of corn collection and storage for many years, resulting in the domestic corn price far higher than the international market level Now, the duty paid price of corn imported from the United States to Guangdong is more than 1740 yuan per ton, but the price transferred from the Northeast to Guangdong is more than 2700 yuan per ton, with a difference of 1000 yuan per ton The impact of the price difference is very big Another is the substitution of corn Under the condition of high corn price, corn deep processing enterprises imported more than 5 million tons of cassava and 900000 tons of cassava powder last year, which is equivalent to replacing more than 6 million tons of corn There is no complete figure for feed enterprises now I think the substitution amount of wheat is not a small number since this year, so the supply and demand situation of corn is also changing This year's corn is still a harvest year, but the consumption growth is weak, and the number of substitutes is increasing The actual corn supply-demand relationship is still oversupply, so next year's corn inventory pressure is not small Ihz although the overall supply of corn is greater than the demand, but the price will not be subversive because the supply is greater than the demand, the price of corn will still be in a high operating situation In addition, ihz has such a large inventory of temporary storage corn If we let it hang upside down, there will be new accounts, and the national finance can't afford it, so we must maintain the overall pattern of sales at a favorable price and be able to go out smoothly I think this is a general principle, and there will never be a loss or a new account, so the price should still be a high-level operation So we have made a choice How should we do this year's corn trade? One is how much is the new grain to be collected? The other is how much is the price of the new grain? It is particularly important to determine the reserve scientifically, and each processing enterprise should have a reasonable reserve, otherwise, there may be a situation of shifting, high cost and so on In the case of unclear freight subsidies, many people are afraid to start, even this year's grain package is more and more reluctant to do so, so the problems in Southwest China will be more prominent in the future In the past two years, corn in Southwest China has been mainly transferred from Xinjiang and Shaanxi In the next step, with the increasing consumption, its security capacity is still limited For example, the northwest grain package is not cost-effective and nobody does it How to advance the next step of bulk grain? Therefore, you should give some suggestions to the national policy from different perspectives, that is, what policies will you strive for in the future Ihz in short, I think the situation of corn is becoming more and more complicated this year We must pay close attention to the national macro-control policies in the field of grain At the same time, we must pay close attention to the actual changes in the market, have a correct expectation for the future development and make a correct judgment Ihz (author:)