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Ragnar Nystoyl, an analyst at Kontali, Norway's market agency, said at the Global Aquaculture Leaders Outlook Summit (GOAL): "All Norwegian traffic lights are flashing red, which will definitely lead to changes in
supply and demand.
”
supply and demand.
”
The signal light system determines the increase or decrease of aquaculture capacity in Norway's production regions, and under the pressure of a 40% resource tax, many producers have said they will suspend investment in
Norway.
In addition, Nystoyl believes that the resource tax will also affect the short-term harvest plans of farming companies, "as long as the tax bill is in place, even if it does not pass parliament, it may soon have an impact
on the real market.
" ”
Norway.
In addition, Nystoyl believes that the resource tax will also affect the short-term harvest plans of farming companies, "as long as the tax bill is in place, even if it does not pass parliament, it may soon have an impact
on the real market.
" ”
Nystoyl worries that if the resource tax is implemented in January, producers are likely to choose to harvest early, affecting short-term prices
.
If so, production growth will be further reduced
next year.
.
If so, production growth will be further reduced
next year.
According to Kontali's previous forecasts, global salmon trout production will decline by 1% in 2022 and grow by only 2.
6%
in 2023.
At FOB prices, farmed Atlantic salmon production was worth more than €15 billion in 2021 and more than €20 billion in
2022.
6%
in 2023.
At FOB prices, farmed Atlantic salmon production was worth more than €15 billion in 2021 and more than €20 billion in
2022.
Due to the decline in production, the consumption volume of major markets around the world has also shown a downward trend this year, with a decline of more than
6% in the first half of the year.
6% in the first half of the year.
Nystoyl pointed out that feed sales are an important indicator for assessing salmon production, and Kontali tracks 80% of global salmon feed sales, and the decline is significant: "By October, feed sales in Europe were down 3%, not only in Norway, but also in Scotland, Ireland, Iceland and the Faroe Islands
.
" ”
.
" ”
Feed volumes in the Americas performed differently, with Chilean feed orders rising 13% year-on-year in the second quarter, but falling another 5%
in July and August.
Nystoyl said: "[Americas feed] has grown overall, with a small
growth base.
”
in July and August.
Nystoyl said: "[Americas feed] has grown overall, with a small
growth base.
”
According to Nystoyl, the farmed Atlantic salmon has a lasting appeal, with strong profitability despite regional differences in producers, limited farming areas and weak room for expansion, as well as market predictability and stability, generating strong interest
from global investors, consumers and the Norwegian government, which has been looking to expand its tax base.
from global investors, consumers and the Norwegian government, which has been looking to expand its tax base.
"A few years ago, the Norwegian salmon farming industry implemented a signal light system that allowed only a small increase in production in green-rated areas, which also made the auction price of salmon licenses higher and higher
.
However, the government suddenly proposed a tax on the salmon industry on the grounds of redistributing
wealth to the rich and greedy producers.
”
.
However, the government suddenly proposed a tax on the salmon industry on the grounds of redistributing
wealth to the rich and greedy producers.
”
If the resource tax bill is passed by Parliament, the total tax rate would be 62%
of corporate profits.
"There is no doubt that this will lead to some unknown effects
.
All signal lights are flashing red, which will definitely lead to changes in supply and demand, but also affect growth plans, investment, credibility and predictability, which is a negative impact
on market dynamics.
”
of corporate profits.
"There is no doubt that this will lead to some unknown effects
.
All signal lights are flashing red, which will definitely lead to changes in supply and demand, but also affect growth plans, investment, credibility and predictability, which is a negative impact
on market dynamics.
”
Nystoyl warned that the rest of the world is currently on the sidelines and does not rule out the possibility of
following Norway's example in taxing salmon businesses.
The impact of Norway's tax bill will eventually be passed on to consumers, negatively impacting salmon consumer loyalty, especially when
producers negotiate contract prices with buyers.
following Norway's example in taxing salmon businesses.
The impact of Norway's tax bill will eventually be passed on to consumers, negatively impacting salmon consumer loyalty, especially when
producers negotiate contract prices with buyers.
