Northeast corn supply reduction late increase still depends on demand.

April-May northern port corn flat price trend showed a clear V-type reversal, the overall increase in May in 60-70 yuan / ton. Although avian flu has not dissipated in early May, due to the extension of the purchase period of the pro-storage for a month and the state's desire to raise the minimum purchase price of corn expected to boost, the port spot price from the low of 2290-2300 yuan / ton in early May to mid-May 2360-2370 yuan / ton; Thus, avian flu is not the main factor affecting the may market trend, the market's concern about the future decline in the flow of grain sources has been reflected. By the cost of traders support, less surplus grain, the gradual recovery of the impact of the aquaculture industry, it is expected that june northeast corn will continue to rise mainly, but the increase will be wheat replacement, deep processing stop collection, feed enterprise procurement mentality and other factors.. Wre, from the corn supply and demand fundamentals, Junewill continue to rise mainlyWrethe Northeast farmers' surplus grain in the hands of gradually less, natural dry grain supply marketWreat the end of May, the acquisition volume of more than 30 million tons, of which Heilongjiang acquisition volume of about 13.3 million tons, accounting for 44% of the total acquisition volume. Although the market has been missing the acquisition entity of The National Reserve since May, the impact of the suspension on the market has been limited due to the larger-than-expected total acquisition volume.. Wreso far the surplus grain in the hands of farmers in the Northeast has dropped to a lower level. Heilongjiang, Liaoning and Inner Mongolia farmers in the hands of about 10% of the surplus grain, the surplus grain more Jilin region also fell to 20-30%. Overall, the progress of grain sales in Northeast China this year was delayed by 1 month, and the current grass-roots grain source in the number of high-quality corn is small, most corn mold rate in 3-4%. At present, the northeast many natural dry grain began to market, by the favor of deep processing enterprises, more into the Northeast deep processing enterprises, the flow to the port less.. Wrethe decline in the number of northern ports, limited supply of high-quality cornWresince early May has been high above 3.7 million tons of north port stocks, but affected by the loss of grain from the origin, after late May the northern port collection volume decreased, and the proportion of high-quality corn arrivals is low, to May 24 when the northern port inventory returned to the beginning of May when the level of 3.7 million tons. In addition, due to the high-quality corn to the volume of less, north port corn purchase prices began to stop falling rebound, traders strong price mentality.. Wre5 months of deep processing general price increases, favor natural drying corn Wre this year's corn deep processing industry continued to lose situation, in May, the Northeast starch enterprises according to the purchase price of corn listed processing losses of 100-120 yuan / ton, alcohol losses in 500-600 yuan / ton, alcohol plant shutdown and maintenance phenomenon more. Despite this, since May, the Northeast deep processing generally raised the purchase price of 50-120 yuan / ton. There are four reasons for deep processing price increase, one is the gradual reduction of grain sources in the hands of farmers, the other is that some enterprises raise the price is to improve the acquisition level, such as from the acquisition of third-class corn gradually to the acquisition of second-class corn, and the third is that the acquisition cost of natural dry grain after the price increase is also lower than the cost of drying grain in the previous period, and natural dry Grain powder rate is higher than drying corn, deep processing want to seize the opportunity to buy high-quality dried corn; It is expected that deep processing will still raise prices by mid-June to collect high-quality natural dried corn. . prices of livestock and poultry products rebounded, feed consumption in May was better than in April Wre after mid-May with the decline of avian flu and the launch of the state secondary frozen pork storage plan, downstream demand improved, white-striped chicken, eggs and pork prices all stopped falling rebound. As of late May, the price of white-striped chicken and eggs in China rose 1% from the beginning of the month; With the end of the emergency response to avian influenza in Zhoukou, Henan Province on the 28th, the H7N9 avian influenza has officially ended. . Wre compared with the outbreak of avian influenza, the aquaculture industry in April was the most affected by avian influenza, feed consumption improved in May compared with April, improved in late May from the end of the previous year, is expected to gradually return to normal in June. In addition, june Dragon Boat Festival will usher in the peak season of egg consumption, and the early impact of avian influenza egg and chicken column has declined, so egg prices may usher in a strong rebound, thus driving a new round of refueling enthusiasm. . Wre 2, the increase will be affected by wheat replacement, deep processing stop collection and other factors Wre is expected to extend deep processing acquisition to 6 around mid- Wre normal year Northeast deep processing stock basically to the end of May, but after this year deep processing stocking mentality has slowed down, the preparation is expected to be delayed until around mid-June. In early June deep processing and feed will become the main force of the baton storage, to undertake the last wave of farmers in the hands of natural drying corn, and in late June with the deep processing has stopped, the market again reduced a takeover body. . Wre Southern port is still high inventory, North-South profits upside down adverse shipments Wre the current southern port corn inventory is still about 400,000 tons high, the early southern large-scale rainfall adverse goods, it is understood that the late South to the volume is large, inventory rose to about 500,000 tons. Under the influence of high inventory and adverse weather, the current Guangdong port high-quality corn transaction price 2410-2430 yuan / ton, north-south upside down 10-30 yuan / ton, and the northern port due to the decline in arrival and traders high price psychology, it is expected that before mid-June the north and south will maintain the north strong south weak pattern, North-South profit shipping. . Wre feeding enterprises are still cautious, demand recovery time Wre as of the end of May, large feed enterprises corn stocks in 30-50 days, only a few in 2-3 months, medium-sized feed enterprises inventory 7-15 days, are lower than the same period last year. Stocks lower than the same period last year have the following reasons: First, although the impact of avian influenza has dissipated, but the fall in the inventory in April is still waiting for time to recover, and the current livestock and poultry product prices only a small correction, the market needs to rise to stimulate the enthusiasm of the supplementcolumn. Second, soybean meal prices have risen sharply since the beginning of April, limiting large corn stocks to small and medium-sized foreage companies with limited capital capacity. Third, after May the weather warmed, precipitation is more, corn there is mold yrin and other storage risks. Fifth, in May, north China sold corn Tengku-packed wheat, the phase supply is still abundant. It is expected that in June, with the price rebound, livestock storage will gradually return to normal levels, but the time is expected to be about 2 months. . Wre late bud wheat feeding replacement or will be reproduced Wre the current Jiangsu, Anhui, Henan and other places of the new season winter wheat has been listed, more water 14-15% third-class to second-class new wheat open scale purchase price in 2160-2220 yuan / ton, bud wheat 2100 yuan / ton. If you do not consider the water and three months after the ripening period and other factors, from the price alone, the price of new wheat than corn prices are about 60-100 yuan / ton. Due to the lowest purchase price of 2240 yuan / ton (third class) to do bottom support, coupled with traders optimistic about the wheat market and the current low inventory of flour mills, the market expects the late wheat purchase price will rise to 2300-2400 yuan / ton, and the current north China corn price of 2260-2300 yuan / ton, wheat is 150 yuan / ton higher than corn within the replacement advantage. In addition, due to this year's long-term rainy weather in North China wheat and the heavy occurrence of pests and diseases, the current Anhui Huainan, Yao, Henan and other places of precocious wheat has appeared bud phenomenon, if the rain weather continues, late-ripe wheat may also face greater quality problems, and bud wheat will be more used for feed consumption. . Wre the above summary, the current farmers in the hands of surplus grain gradually decline, high-quality corn supply is limited, later by the supply reduction and demand gradually recovered, corn price trend will continue to rise mainly, the increase will be by the southern port high inventory, breeding industry recovery, deep processing in the northeast before and after or stop harvest, and wheat replacement may re-emerge and other factors. It is suggested that feed enterprises with financial strength should seize the opportunity to purchase high-quality corn. . Wre April-May northern port corn flat price trend showed a clear V-shaped reversal, the overall increase in May in 60-70 yuan / ton. Although avian flu has not dissipated in early May, due to the extension of the purchase period of the pro-storage for a month and the state's desire to raise the minimum purchase price of corn expected to boost, the port spot price from the low of 2290-2300 yuan / ton in early May to mid-May 2360-2370 yuan / ton; Thus, avian flu is not the main factor affecting the may market trend, the market's concern about the future decline in the flow of grain sources has been reflected. By the cost of traders support, less surplus grain, the gradual recovery of the impact of the aquaculture industry, it is expected that june northeast corn will continue to rise mainly, but the increase will be wheat replacement, deep processing stop collection, feed enterprise procurement mentality and other factors. . Wre , from the corn supply and demand fundamentals, June will continue to rise mainly Wre the Northeast farmers' surplus grain in the hands of gradually less, natural dry grain supply market Wre at the end of May, the acquisition volume of more than 30 million tons, of which Heilongjiang acquisition volume of about 13.3 million tons, accounting for 44% of the total acquisition volume. Although the market has been missing the acquisition entity of The National Reserve since May, the impact of the suspension on the market has been limited due to the larger-than-expected total acquisition volume. . Wre so far the surplus grain in the hands of farmers in the Northeast has dropped to a lower level. Heilongjiang, Liaoning and Inner Mongolia farmers in the hands of about 10% of the surplus grain, the surplus grain more Jilin region also fell to 20-30%. Overall, the progress of grain sales in Northeast China this year was delayed by 1 month, and the current grass-roots grain source in the number of high-quality corn is small, most corn mold rate in 3-4%. At present, the northeast many natural dry grain began to market, by the favor of deep processing enterprises, more into the Northeast deep processing enterprises, the flow to the port less. . Wre the decline in the number of northern ports, limited supply of high-quality corn Wre since early May has been high above 3.7 million tons of north port stocks, but affected by the loss of grain from the origin, after late May the northern port collection volume decreased, and the proportion of high-quality corn arrivals is low, to May 24 when the northern port inventory returned to the beginning of May when the level of 3.7 million tons. In addition, due to the high-quality corn to the volume of less, north port corn purchase prices began to stop falling rebound, traders strong price mentality. . Wre 5 months of deep processing general price increases, favor natural drying corn Wre this year's corn deep processing industry continued to lose situation, in May, the Northeast starch enterprises according to the purchase price of corn listed processing losses of 100-120 yuan / ton, alcohol losses in 500-600 yuan / ton, alcohol plant shutdown and maintenance phenomenon more. Despite this, since May, the Northeast deep processing generally raised the purchase price of 50-120 yuan / ton. There are four reasons for deep processing price increase, one is the gradual reduction of grain sources in the hands of farmers, the other is that some enterprises raise the price is to improve the acquisition level, such as from the acquisition of third-class corn gradually to the acquisition of second-class corn, and the third is that the acquisition cost of natural dry grain after the price increase is also lower than the cost of drying grain in the previous period, and natural dry Grain powder rate is higher than drying corn, deep processing want to seize the opportunity to buy high-quality dried corn; It is expected that deep processing will still raise prices by mid-June to collect high-quality natural dried corn. . prices of livestock and poultry products rebounded, feed consumption in May was better than in April Wre after mid-May with the decline of avian flu and the launch of the state secondary frozen pork storage plan, downstream demand improved, white-striped chicken, eggs and pork prices all stopped falling rebound. As of late May, the price of white-striped chicken and eggs in China rose 1% from the beginning of the month; With Henan Zhoukou on the 28th to terminate the emergency response to avian influenza, this H7N9.