Next year, China's grain, cotton and oil market will take the lead in "changing"

Introduction: the price of domestic grain, cotton and edible oil market fluctuated greatly in the period before the news of Oriental egger online international business news According to the analysis of experts and insiders, there will be three major changes in China's grain, cotton and oil market next year First of all, the reduction of grain and cotton production will be curbed and the market supply will increase Han Jun, director of the Rural Research Department of the development research center of the State Council, believes that under the condition of the grain price falling for six years in a row, the market grain price has recovered, giving farmers suffering from the pain of "low grain price hurting farmers" the opportunity to increase their income, improve their enthusiasm for grain production, and promote the sustained warming of the grain industry B5t according to the prediction of relevant experts, from the first half of 2004, the market supply of grain and cotton will increase slightly If the price of grain and cotton rises again, it is estimated that the production of grain and cotton in that year will continue to expand, greatly making up for the current situation of insufficient supply and demand of grain and cotton market B5t second, the dynamic information of grain and cotton market may be more transparent, more timely and accurate Song Guoqing, a professor at the China Economic Research Center of Peking University, believes that China's grain price fluctuations are related to the opacity of grain import and export information For a long time, China has kept the data of grain inventory secret, which makes it impossible for the outside world to know the real situation of supply and demand in the domestic market, and the procurement in the international market has become the only reference information Once the Chinese buyers appear, the large international grain producers will join hands to bid up the price, leading to the spread of price rise This year's poor international agricultural products and rising prices have a direct impact on domestic food prices B5t Song Guoqing pointed out that for every country, grain is a strategic material, but fundamentally, grain trade is a business transaction The rules of the game in the global market are not confidentiality, but providing enough transparent information to maintain communication The price fluctuation of grain and cotton and other agricultural products made relevant organizations and insiders realize the importance of market information, and it is expected that the dynamic information of grain and cotton market will be more transparent in the future In addition to b5t, some experts believe that another main reason for the price fluctuation of grain, cotton and oil is that domestic consumers and purchasers can not grasp the market information in time, and there is a phenomenon of rush buying, which to a certain extent expands the price rise After this price increase, the price of grain, cotton and oil market is expected to be more rational next year, and the market dynamic information forecast system will be more mature B5t third, the grain, cotton and oil related industrial structure will be further adjusted, and the enterprise operation mechanism will be optimized Experts from the information center of the Ministry of agriculture pointed out that starting next year, the adjustment of relevant industrial structure will be mainly reflected in the gradual coordination of the means of production of grain, oil and cotton with the production capacity of corresponding enterprises At present, the crushing capacity of edible oil processing enterprises in China is far greater than the supply capacity of raw materials Oil companies rush to buy raw materials, resulting in high prices of raw materials and grains The rising price of raw materials and grains will make some small and medium-sized oil extraction enterprises withdraw from the market, and the grain and oil market will achieve a balance According to the statistics of b5t, the number of existing spindles in China has increased by more than 50% compared with that in 1998 when the state limited the production of spindles About 10% - 30% of the new textile production capacity uses backward equipment or obsolete equipment The sharp rise in cotton prices, to some extent, curbed the domestic textile industry low-level overcapacity, vicious competition disorder B5t also pointed out that the price fluctuation will optimize the operation mechanism of grain, cotton and oil retail industries In recent years, the price of grain, cotton and oil has been falling continuously, and the cost of buying futures by dealers is generally higher than the spot market price In recent two years, the number of enterprises participating in futures trading has decreased, and the price fluctuation has brought great pressure to the operation of enterprises Therefore, dealers who have experienced this price change will pay more attention to participating in futures trading to balance the purchase cost B5T