Nature: New crowns such as restaurants and gym cafes are at the highest risk of spread

BEIJING, Nov. 11 (Xinhua Sun Zifa) The reopening of restaurants, gyms, cafes and hotels poses the greatest risk of transmission of the new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), according to a new epidemiological research paper published in nature, an internationally renowned academic journal.
model of sites where the human mobility model predicts the highest risk of new coronavirus transmission shows that reducing the occupancy of these venues could significantly reduce the number of people infected. In addition, the study noted differences in infection risk associated with socioeconomic status.
To assess how changes in human mobility could change the spread of the new coronavirus, co-author Jure Leskovec of Stanford University and colleagues used mobile phone data from the United States (collected from March 1 to May 2, 2020) to map the movements of millions of people in different local communities. They combined this data with a new model of coronavirus transmission to identify potentially high-risk sites and at-risk populations.
their model accurately predicted the number of confirmed cases per day in 10 of the largest metropolitan areas, such as Chicago, New York City and San Francisco. The fineness of the moving data allowed researchers to simulate hourly infections in nearly 553,000 different locations in 20 categories that people often visit -- also known as "points of interest." The paper's authors' model predicts that a small number of these locations, such as full-service restaurants, contribute the majority of infections. In the Chicago metropolitan area, for example, 10 percent of the points of interest contributed 85 percent of the predicted infections.
the model also predicts that higher-income groups in low-income groups are more susceptible to infection because they are unable to move significantly and where they go are smaller and more crowded, which also increases the risk of infection. For example, low-income groups regularly visit convenience stores with 59 percent more people per square foot than high-income groups, and customers stay 17 percent longer on average.
by simulating who is susceptible to infection in which and where, the authors also estimated the effectiveness of different reopening strategies, which they believe could serve as a reference for re-opening policy development. For example, projections show that keeping site occupancy at 20 percent of its maximum capacity can reduce new infections by more than 80 percent, but reduce the total number of customers to the store by only 42 percent.