National pig production capacity to 80% of the "second brother" price trend is obvious.

With the resumption of production capacity, the trend of falling pig prices across the country is becoming more and more apparent.
the pig cycle is closely related to the market supply and demand relationship, the recent significant decline in pig prices, showing the market supply recovery results.
the up-range of the pig cycle from 2019 to 2020, the price of domestic pig out of the column once exceeded 40 yuan/kg, a record extreme.
as the cycle goes down, the market price falls back quickly.
According to Sogou.com monitoring, after the 11th long holiday in 2020, the average price of lean meat-type pigs in China has fallen below 32 yuan / kg, and from the national regional distribution point of view, the highest price of Hainan Province is now close to 37 yuan / kg, the lowest price of Heilongjiang Province has fallen below 29 yuan / kg.
spread between the highest and lowest prices in the country has also been widened to 8 yuan/kg.
pig prices fell significantly Zhuo Zhe analyst Niu Zhe pointed out that the average domestic pig price in September to reduce mainly, the end of the month slightly tailed.
average price of 35.20 yuan per kilogram in September, down 6.28 percent month-on-month and 20.84 percent year-on-year.
35.49 yuan/kg outside January-September, up 101.08 percent year-on-year.
, the province with the biggest decline in September was Sichuan province, down 7.21 per cent month-on-month, while the province with the smallest decline was Fujian province, down 5.6 per cent month-on-month, according to Trot.
With the recent announcement of the third quarter results of listed companies, the profitability of leading enterprises in the pig breeding industry has been shown again, but with the disclosure of September production and sales data, it is not difficult to see that the current domestic pig sales price has declined significantly.
production and sales data disclosed on the evening of September 8th showed that the average sales price of the company's pigs was 34.38 yuan/kg, a change of -7.11% month-on-month, and the average sales price declined month-on-month.
2020, commodity pig prices as a whole showed a downward trend, according to the September pig sales briefing released at the same time on the evening of the 9th.
Zhengbang Technology released a September pig sales briefing, the company's commercial pig sales price in September was 34.29 yuan / kg, in August 36.3 yuan / kg.
Tianbang shares previously disclosed september production and sales data also show that the company in September 2020 sales of commercial pigs average price of 51.91 yuan / kg (excluding piglets, pig prices after the impact of 32.44 yuan / kg), a month-on-month change of -11.43%.
pig production capacity has been restored to 80% on October 10, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a national pig production recovery video dispatch promotion meeting, deployed to promote high-quality completion of the year-round pig production capacity recovery task.
year, the national pig and can breed sow storage column have returned to the normal year level of more than 80%, pig scale breeding proportion increased to 53%.
And according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs previous data, the country's sow storage column in October 2019 achieved the first positive month-on-month, in July 2020 the national pig storage column increased by 4.8% month-on-month, six consecutive months of growth;
year-on-year growth of 20.3% year-on-year, up 4% month-on-month in July.
" September breeding end is in a weak position, butchers pressure prices are greater.
" Niu Zhe believes that from the supply side, within the month the Northern Group pig farm production capacity continued to release, the monthly column plan slow progress, forced to reduce the volume of prices, retail panic increased, local areas there is a concentrated column situation;
into the second half, with the National Day, mid-autumn approaching, slaughter enterprises have started pre-festival stocking, pig source digestion speed up, pig prices bottom rebounded, but the rebound is weak.
Feng Yonghui, an analyst at Sogou.com, believes that from a regional perspective, the prices of the two more remote provinces in the northeast and northwest regions of Heilongjiang and Xinjiang are very different from those in other regions, and it is worth noting that the average price of pigs out of the column has fallen from nearly 38 yuan/kg in early August to 32 yuan/kg now, and has fallen by 6 yuan/kg, so from the overall trend of the national pig market, the current downward trend has been basically determined.
" Mid-Autumn Festival, National Day during the pig market has also seen a small rebound, but did not continue, only two or three days after the rise and then appeared to continue to fall, the main reason is that the overall demand is indeed worse than previously expected.
" he said, the overall pork consumption in the market is not particularly positive, led by the recovery in consumption is still relatively limited.
from the slaughtering enterprises of pork sales, but also basically reflect this.
When the price of pigs rose slightly, pig farmers see prices rise to meet expectations, it is possible to accelerate out of the column fat pigs, as long as the number of columns slightly increased, reached the demand, but if the corresponding increase in the supply of pork, it belongs to the part that can not be digested, so the price has fallen again.
there is still room to reduce prices Although the current domestic pig prices from the previous high has a certain decline, but now the average price of about 32 yuan / kg is still at an all-time high, pig farming profits are still considerable.
, according to ZhuoTron monitoring, pig material in September than the average of 13.03, down 3.55 percent month-on-month, up 22.58 percent year-on-year.
january-September average of 13.53 pig stock, up 96.37 percent year-on-year.
the continued decline in pig prices, pig prices fell significantly in September.
months of serious imbalance between supply and demand, the breeding end of the market bearish sentiment thickened, out of the column enthusiasm significantly increased, local large-scale fat pig out of the column increased, pig prices continue to fall, resulting in a sharp decline in pig stock ratio, has now fallen to "12" near.
the profit of pig farming units has shrunk slightly, but it is still considerable.
Early October by the National Day and mid-Autumn holidays boosted, pig prices or slightly up, pig ratio or bottom slightly increased, but the possibility of lower pig prices in the middle and lower half of the year is still large, pig ratio or continue to shock lower.
" from the consumer side, after October, the weather gradually cooled, terminal consumption slowly warmed up, but the butcher's operating rate rose space or limited, the overall market pull is not obvious.
And the supply side, the northern market pig production capacity continued to release, the east three provinces, central China, east China and other places the scale of pig out of the column increased significantly, butchers acquisition smooth, price resistance is relatively small, the possibility of lower volatility within the month is greater;
" Niu Zhe thinks.
Feng Yonghui also pointed out that, along with the continued decline in pig prices, once fell to the bottom line of the psychological bear of the breeding end will gradually promote farmers to increase the pressure bar anti-price sentiment, concentrated out of the column after the current number of pig stocks in some areas began to decrease, the overall pig column is heavy decline, in addition to the pig prices fell significantly after the local market pork zero There is a certain decline in the price, after the overlay temperature significantly cools the residents' demand for pork consumption will usher in a certain degree of increase, with the supply and demand game again intensified, some of the ultra-falling areas may have to stop the decline and stabilize the rebound, but subject to the continued resumption of production capacity release, pig price stage rebound space and intensity will be limited, the possibility of returning to the previous high is very small.
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