National pig prices into the rising channel has been 24 months inflection point or will come.

Experts believe that as long as there is no significant impact on production capacity of the emergency, the current pig cycle may enter the decline channel, inflection point or may comeAffected by the epidemic, the threshold of pig farming in China will be raised in the futureAt the same time, mechanized, intelligent and industrialpig-driven industrial production mode has started, the future of China's pig industry will accelerate into the era of industrial production, although the main body of production is still diversified, but the integration of enterprises, leading enterprises will accelerate development, become the main force affecting the development of the market
the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Monitoring data show that on June 18, the national wholesale market of agricultural products pork average price of 42.72 yuan / kg, which is 21.36 yuan It has been 24 months since the national pig price went up in June 2018prices remain high, increasing the burden of living for consumersDomestic pork prices were loosened at the start of the new year and fell for 14 weeks in a row, but rebounded again last weekInternational pig prices long-term depressed, domestic high pig prices when ushered in a downward cycle? Has the turning point of the pig cycle arrived? In response to these questions, the reporter interviewed the relevant expertsthe two-dayof the pig market ice fire."At present, the purchase price of pigs is 34 yuan / kg, if self-breeding, each sale of a pig, the profit is about 1600 yuanIf it is not self-breeding, for each pig sold, the profit is only 300 yuanMainly piglets are too expensive, a piglet to 1000 yuan"On June 19th, Huang Pengcheng, a farmer in Liuhe Town, Hubei Province, saidHuang Pengcheng is a veterinary origin, ten years ago built a small pig farm, self-breeding, perennial pig 200 pigsAlthough the price of pigs continues to "high fever" does not retreat, "bull market" duration is very long, the industry feel is very different, with "ice and fire two days" to sum up it is appropriatesmall farmers such as Huang Pengcheng,, are "ice"From this year on, Huang Pengcheng has not raised pigsThe previous outbreak of swine fever in Africa has left him in a state of shock"Don't look at the high profits and the risks of raising pigs nowIf the disease, would have been good pig, a few days time one by one are deadHuang Pengcheng saidIn the spring of this year, he turned to try to raise chickens, currently raising 200, if the benefits can be, the plan to expand the scalethe leading national pig breeding enterprises are "fire"According to Wen's annual report, the net profit for 2019 was RMB13,906 million, up 251.38 percent year-on-yearNew Hope Six And Co., Ltdmade a net profit of 5.04 billion yuan in 2019, up 195.78 percent year-on-yearMakahara Group has successfully weathered the severe test of African swine fever, with net profit up 1075.37 percent in 2019."The current pig cycle superimposes the outbreak of new crown pneumonia, environmental policies, pig product transfer policies and production cyclical factors, which are very different from previous cycles." Zhu Zengyong, an associate researcher at the Beijing Institute of Livestock and Veterinary Research of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, saidHe told reporters that since 2006, China has experienced three complete pig cycles, namely, June 2006 to May 2009, June 2009 to April 2014, May 2014 to May 2018, the duration of 36 months, 59 months and 49 months, respectively, from the trough to the peak of 23 months, 28 months and 26 monthsThe current upward cycle has been 24 months since June 2018 in Zhu Zengyong's view, the current rise cycle is different from the previous few cycles, first of all, the pig storage column and the ability to breed sow storage column depth decline, and all the main production of breeding has been affected to varying degrees Without the outbreak of swine fever in Africa, pork prices are expected to continue to decline in 2018 and are likely to experience cyclical lows in the first half of 2019 However, the outbreak of swine fever in Africa disrupted the normal rhythm of the pig cycle Since October 2018, the number of sows in the stock has fallen by more than 5% year-on-year and continues to grow By September 2019, the number of sows in the country had fallen by 38.9% year-on-year, while the number of pig stocks had fallen by more than 41% the sharp decline in production capacity caused the price of pigs to continue to rise rapidly, much higher than the previous cycle, and the rise cycle is short In terms of monthly average prices, the highs since 2006 were RMB16.87/kg, RMB19.68/kg, RMB20.45/kg and RMB37.11/kg respectively, and the price of pigs in February 2020 was 81.5% higher than the June 2016 high It took only 14 months to get from the trough to the previous high, with the first two cycles being 25 and 24 months, respectively turning point may be on the .　　"As long as there are no unexpected events that have a significant impact on capacity, the current pig cycle may enter a downward channel, and the inflection point may come." Zhu Zengyong said The main influencing factors the inflection point of pig price are supply and demand From the point of view of supply, the stock of pigs and sows is the most important index to judge the inflection point of pig price Since October 2019, the number of sows in the country has rebounded for eight consecutive months In terms of production cycle, the supply of pigs showed a restorative growth in the fastest 10 months The recovery of pig stock and piglet supply for 4 consecutive months indicates a marked increase in pig supply after the fastest five months in terms of consumption, pork consumption demand is expected to fall by 30 to 40 per cent in the first half of this year, higher than the decline in pork supply Supply recovery in the second half of the year is expected to be faster than the recovery rate of consumption Therefore, overall, the high price of pigs may have passed, the later will gradually return to reasonable price level It is expected that the national pig supply will increase significantly in 2021, further driving pig prices to accelerate the recovery to reasonable prices .　　"By the biosecurity level, capital, technology, management and other factors, small and medium-sized retail supplement column to expand production speed, time and scale, than large-scale enterprises and large farmers a lot slower." Leading enterprises through the 'company and farmers' way to expand rapidly, while feed, slaughter and other breeding industry chain upstream and downstream enterprises have also accelerated into the field of aquaculture Zhu Zengyong said , for example, the Group of Makahara, has accelerated its distribution across the country since the outbreak of swine fever in Africa, and is expected to increase the number of pigs out of the country to 20 million by 2020 Zhu Zengyong believes that the impact of the epidemic, the future of China's pig breeding threshold will be raised At the same time of the scale improvement, mechanization, intelligence and industrialization of pig-driven industrial production mode has started, the future of China's pig industry will accelerate into the era of industrial production, although the main body of production is still diversified, but the integration of enterprises, leading enterprises will accelerate the development, become the main force affecting the development of the market policy guidance to keep up with .　　"The pig cycle is a product of the market, not unique to China It is the relevant departments to improve the stability and competitiveness of pig production and reduce the fluctuation of pig price swine price swine price steam in each round Zhu Zengyong said first of all, we should base on the domestic pork supply, rational use of domestic and foreign resources Pork import is an effective means to regulate the supply and demand of China's pork market In particular, the current production capacity is still in the process of recovery, reasonable import of pork to help prevent excessive price increases Relevant departments should continue to improve the domestic pig industry early warning system, provide producers with more access to market information resources, timely release of pork import early warning information to the community, reasonably guide the market to import pork, in order to not only reduce pig prices, but also prevent excessive imports to impact the domestic market second, the use of medium- and long-term interest-bearing loans, insurance and other financial instruments to stabilize pig production Zhu Zengyong said that if the government departments targeted to issue medium- and long-term low-interest, interest-bearing loans, can help farmers to solve financing problems, to ensure that pig prices in the downturn in the production capacity of moderate reduction For small and medium-sized farmers, they can be guided to establish a cooperative farming organization, or the implementation of the "company and farmers" model, so as to form a scale advantage, to ensure the supply of production materials, effectively establish production and marketing docking, reduce operational risks .