National Development and Reform Commission: China's grain prices are expected to remain high this year

Introduction: According to the prediction of the price monitoring center of the national development and Reform Commission, the overall trend of grain price in the near future will continue to maintain stable, and it is expected that the market grain price will still maintain a high adjustment state in the later period, and the impact of the food price dominated by grain on the overall level of consumer price will gradually weaken; the growth of farmers' grain income will slow down, but the grain income will still be at a high level in history I The recent situation of grain prices since the first quarter of this year, the overall trend of grain prices has remained stable, and the average monthly price of major varieties has a relatively small rise and fall on a month on month basis; the trend of purchase prices of different varieties is different In May, the purchase price of wheat and rice fell slightly, while the purchase price of corn rose slowly (1) in May, the purchase price of raw grain fell steadily The comprehensive average purchase price of three kinds of grain (rice, wheat and corn) in 25 major grain producing provinces (districts and cities) was 71.18 yuan per 50 kg (the same below), 1.02% lower than that of last month The purchase price of rice declined slightly, especially in some southern regions The average purchase price of rice in the main production areas was 80.46 yuan, 1.13% lower than that in the previous month Among them, the purchase prices of early indica rice, late indica rice and japonica rice were 74.99 yuan, 77.94 yuan and 90.21 yuan, respectively, 1.70%, 1.32% and 0.39% lower than that in the previous month Wheat prices continued to decline slightly The average purchase price of wheat in the main production areas was 73.28 yuan, down 2.59% from last month The average purchase price of wheat in state-owned grain enterprises was 73.45 yuan, down 2.49% from last month, up 1.10% from the same period last year Corn prices continued to rise, but the rise slowed down The average purchase price of corn in the main production area was 53.13 yuan, up 1.55% from last month (2) the retail price of finished grain was basically stable from January to March In March, the average retail prices of rice, flour markets and supermarkets in 36 large and medium-sized cities were 1.46 yuan and 1.45 yuan per 500g respectively Compared with January, the price of rice slightly decreased by 0.23% and the price of flour slightly increased by 0.69% In May, the retail price of finished grain in large and medium-sized cities rose and fell slightly The average retail prices of early indica rice, late indica rice, japonica rice, Fuqiang powder and standard powder in 36 large and medium-sized city fairs and supermarkets were 1.34 yuan, 1.43 yuan, 1.63 yuan, 1.53 yuan and 1.37 yuan per 500g, respectively The prices of Japonica Rice and Fuqiang powder were 0.62% and 0.66% higher than that of last month 2 Grain price trend and impact analysis grain price has gradually stabilized after a substantial increase in the first half of 2004 It is expected that this year grain price will remain basically stable at the level of last year Affected by short-term factors such as the increase of outbound volume, the wheat price which has recently declined is also expected to gradually stabilize after the summer harvest (1) the pull effect of rising food prices, mainly grain, on the overall level of consumer prices will gradually weaken In the first quarter of this year, the grain price increased by 8.7% year on year, and the food price increased by 6.1% year on year Compared with the previous year, the increase of grain price decreased by 17.7 percentage points, and the increase of food price decreased by 3.8 percentage points, which has weakened the pulling effect on the level of consumer price It is estimated that the grain price in the next three quarters will be slightly lower than the same period last year, with a year-on-year increase of about 4.9%; the annual increase of grain price is between 1% and 2%, and the increase of food price is about 5.2% It is predicted that the actual average increase of food prices in the whole year will not exceed 5 percentage points, possibly between 3 and 4 percentage points, and the total increase of consumer prices will not exceed 1.5 percentage points (2) the growth of farmers' grain income will slow down, but the grain income will still be at a high level in history On the premise that grain prices are basically stable, it is not difficult to see a big increase in farmers' grain income this year, because it is difficult to increase grain production significantly, and considering the increase in grain production costs caused by the increase in the price of agricultural materials such as fertilizer Third, the factors that affect the trend of grain prices in the later period are that this year, the state's efforts to support grain production have increased again, and grain supply is expected to grow further, which has laid a good foundation for maintaining basic stability of grain prices this year At the same time, uncertainties such as climate and market expectations may still have an adverse impact on the stability of the food market (1) grain production continues to grow steadily, and grain supply and demand are expected to improve further According to the survey of farmers' planting intention of the National Bureau of statistics, it is estimated that the grain planting area in 2005 will be 1.558 billion mu, an increase of 2.3% over last year; among them, the summer grain planting area will be 395 million mu, an increase of 4.8%, reversing the situation of seven consecutive years of decline According to this estimate, under the condition that the climate conditions are suitable and the per unit yield basically keeps the level of the previous year, the total grain output this year will be about 960 billion jin, and the supply and demand of grain will be further improved However, it is predicted that the pattern of insufficient grain production and demand in that year will be difficult to change, and the gap between production and demand will still be around 30 billion jin (2) a new situation of structural adjustment of the grain market circulation system is taking shape, and the role of farmers in the grain pricing system has been enhanced With the opening of grain market in the main production areas, farmers have the real right to sell grain, which will directly support the price of grain However, we should also see that at present, the price of chemical fertilizer is still high, and the cost of grain planting will continue to rise; the level of grain price in the international market is still relatively low, which restricts the domestic grain price to some extent Therefore, it is expected that grain prices in the later period will be stable in general, and in general, there will be no big ups and downs