Multiple factors help urea accumulate rebound momentum

Looking into the middle of May, the domestic urea market has been in a period of weakness for about three weeks, with prices consolidating at low levels and there are still price cuts from time to time.
Although there is summer fertilizer preparation, the market is delayed and the transaction is slow.
This pace of fertilizer preparation is very unfavorable to the urea market at this stage, leading to lack of confidence in dealers.
If there is no effective way to promote sales, spring ploughing will be reproduced in the later period, whether it is operated on the fly or the Fed is more helpless.
During the period, the factory was profitable while the dealers were profitable.
Unless downstream bargain hunters seize the opportunity at this time, it is possible to gain the initiative in the subsequent market.
At present, the unsalable agricultural market has brought more inventory pressure to manufacturers in the main production areas, and manufacturers have entered a new stage of gaming.
At this time, low-priced urea brings not only unsalable sales to the market, but also arouses everyone's thinking about the market outlook.
? Quotes or explosive start.
After several short periods of ups and downs in the market, the current weak period of urea was lengthened.
The three-week price cut brought about 100 yuan/ton drop to the ex-factory price of the main urea producing areas, but also temporarily broke the increase.
Rhythm of rapid alternation.
After all, the market for Xiafei is worth fighting for.
Both factories and distributors are determined to operate properly, and manufacturers are re-gaming the reserve price of urea.
It just so happens that the urea market originally has a "mass base" with a short-term decline or increase of over 20%.
Simply put, it is often due to manufacturers' speculation that induces centralized purchases, and urea first plummets and then rises rapidly.
Compared with the negative factors of urea during the summer fertilizer market in previous years, it is not difficult to see that the situation this year is still optimistic.
The low ex-factory price of urea has reduced risk expectations; downstream industrial purchases have increased significantly year-on-year, reducing the pressure on supply and demand; India’s first round of bidding failed, leaving domestic manufacturers with new bargaining power.
Therefore, the current urea market is full of hype "buy points.
" The most direct reason for the unsalable urea is that the terminal market is not moving.
While the efficient channels and fast logistics redefine the concept of the off-sale storage cycle, it does add more operational ideas to the off-sales storage of urea.
But in the end, the only thing that is reflected in the urea market is the game to lower prices, collective bargaining, and create flash-in-the-moment surges again and again.
Favorable support is still expected.
As far as the current urea market is concerned, positive factors can still be considered from the perspective of supply and demand and exports.
I have repeatedly mentioned in the previous Kan market that domestic urea companies arrange equipment maintenance from March to April, and some companies have reduced the production of ordinary urea due to costs or temporary adjustments to their product lines.
During this period, there were fewer comments about oversupply in the industry, and more voices urging factories to deliver goods.
Although many peers are still using the weekly high operating rate to continue to interpret their feelings of overcapacity, downstream manufacturers who usually use this as a price game I don't think so, and they are mostly operating step by step.
The expectation of tighter supply in the peak season can be seen.
As a result, in the temporary price game between manufacturers, although some companies compromised to cut prices, the overall transaction volume was limited, social inventories could not be replenished, and there were even more expensive self-storage manufacturers, which will aggravate the later agricultural market to a certain extent.
The contradiction between supply and demand after the start-up has provided greater impetus for the rebound of urea prices.
In terms of exports, India’s April bidding finalized a transaction of 620,000 tons, and China’s supply of goods was only 180,000 tons.
It is difficult for the new cargo to meet the low price of the port, and it can only be used as a bargaining chip for the next round of Indian bidding.
According to foreign media sources, India's reserves of urea in the first half of the year were slightly less than the same period.
With the fertilization period approaching, the new urea bidding can be expected, and it is expected that the price will be raised moderately to weigh the export supply of Chinese manufacturers.
? To sum up, the domestic agricultural summer fertilizer preparation cycle has been further compressed due to the continued downturn in the urea market, and urea companies have tried to use the methods of maintenance and adjustment of product lines to increase prices.
Although the slow sales that lasted for more than two weeks caused some manufacturers to compromise and cut prices, the inventory in the downstream market was still low.
Once the market started, dealers concentrated on buying bottoms, and urea regained momentum.