Multi-land corn rally start

Although the purchase price of the northern port fell slightly over the weekend, the price of corn in the main production and marketing areas of the southern market, Shandong and Guangdong ports showed different increases throughout the corn marketThe negative impact of the pre-storage auction and wheat replacement does not appear to have dampened the upward trend in high-quality corn prices, which are expected to return to the upward path as the negative factors digest in July2Be
The characteristics of independence are obvious, and the port can no longer represent the supply and demand of the entire marketAs a production and marketing area of the "wind vane" of the port, this year by structural changes, showing a strong independence, therefore, the current rely on the port alone to judge the future market situation seems to be somewhat unworkable2Be
First of all, analysis of inventory, in addition to the port inventory is high, trade links and grain enterprises are in a low inventory state, northeast farmers in surplus grain sold out, traders save grain lower than in previous years, the early hope of wheat replacement feed enterprise inventory is also low level, it can be seen that the port inventory high can not bring the whole market corn supply sufficientFrom its structure, the current total of 3.8 million tons of corn stocks, reserve grain and feed plants signed good contract grain in Hong Kong in more than 1.8 million tons, so the later supply market flow of trade grain quantity should be less than 2 million tonsSecondly, the analysis of its arrival situation, in the past week the northern four days to the total volume of goods in about 37,000 tons, significantly lower than before, which also contains the southern feed factory signed the contract grain and port traders' origin inventory, so traders in Hong Kong actually acquired the amount is not muchAgain, the analysis of the quality of corn to Hong Kong, the current arrival of Jilin grain-based, the new standard first-class and second-class corn quantity is very small, mold conditions are difficult to control2Be
The port of origin hangs upside down, and the import volume of good grain railway sits in and outOn the one hand supported by the cost, from the trader's pre-acquisition cost projection, Jilin high-quality corn out of the price should be 2250-70 yuan / ton, to the port cost should be 2340-60 yuan / ton, with the current mainstream purchase price upside down 30-40 yuan / ton On the other hand, the current market generally lack of good corn, capacity of 700g /L or more, mold within 3% of good grain is difficult to find, so traders on this part of the corn price sized expectations, good grain out of the warehouse price on the basis of the acquisition cost to add a certain amount of expected price2Be
　　North China corn stocks are lower than in the same period last year, sales areas increased northeast corn dependence Early by the impact of the sharp fall in pig prices, farmers to supplement the column cycle delayed, with the pig grain ratio continued to pick up, farmers will increase the willingness to supplement the column, the demand for high-quality corn also increased accordingly And the current limited number of good corn in the Northeast, North China traders in the surplus grain has also bottomed out, wheat prices are in the rapid rise channel, traders increased the amount of wheat replenishment, and corn out of the reservoir, resulting in the current North China traders' corn stocks lower than the same period last year, in the case of reduced supply and stable demand, corn prices are likely to rise Difficult to fall, so the southern feed plant, especially in Sichuan and other inland sales areas began to increase the purchase volume of northeast corn, supporting its price to the station upward, and thus attract the Northeast corn railway entry volume increased, and push up the cost of the production of traders, which is also the northern port of good grain acquisition is more difficult to buy a major reason 2Be
　　At present, wheat is in the upward channel, farmers have the mood to sell, traders also hold a bullish psychology, coupled with some production areas of wheat production reduction and quality decline, so it is expected that wheat prices will continue to rise in the later stages In addition, the market rumors, the recent pro-storage or liberalization of wheat acquisition standards, imperfect grain from 8% to 20%, if this rumor is true, the future increase in wheat prices will be greatly increased, and thus the price of corn to form a profit 2Be
　　To sum up, this year the port market has a strong independence, its current situation can not represent the mainstream market, with the market area and North China many land corn prices will start, northeast corn prices will continue to rise, or cause the entire market wind direction change, so the later should focus on the southern grain price changes and the Northeast corn railway entry volume Corn prices are expected to remain in the same room as they rise in July, supported by "cost-plus-expectations" 2Be Although the purchase price of the northern port fell slightly over the weekend, but throughout the entire corn market, the southern marketing area, Shandong and Guangdong ports and other major production and marketing areas of corn prices have shown different increases The negative impact of the pre-storage auction and wheat replacement does not appear to have dampened the upward trend in high-quality corn prices, which are expected to return to the upward path as the negative factors digest in July 2Be
　　The characteristics of independence are obvious, and the port can no longer represent the supply and demand of the entire market As a production and marketing area of the "wind vane" of the port, this year by structural changes, showing a strong independence, therefore, the current rely on the port alone to judge the future market situation seems to be somewhat unworkable 2Be
　　First of all, analysis of inventory, in addition to the port inventory is high, trade links and grain enterprises are in a low inventory state, northeast farmers in surplus grain sold out, traders save grain lower than in previous years, the early hope of wheat replacement feed enterprise inventory is also low level, it can be seen that the port inventory high can not bring the whole market corn supply sufficient From its structure, the current total of 3.8 million tons of corn stocks, reserve grain and feed plants signed good contract grain in Hong Kong in more than 1.8 million tons, so the later supply market flow of trade grain quantity should be less than 2 million tons Secondly, the analysis of its arrival situation, in the past week the northern four days to the total volume of goods in about 37,000 tons, significantly lower than before, which also contains the southern feed factory signed the contract grain and port traders' origin inventory, so traders in Hong Kong actually acquired the amount is not much Again, the analysis of the quality of corn to Hong Kong, the current arrival of Jilin grain-based, the new standard first-class and second-class corn quantity is very small, mold conditions are difficult to control 2Be
　　The port of origin hangs upside down, and the import volume of good grain railway sits in and out On the one hand supported by the cost, from the trader's pre-acquisition cost projection, Jilin high-quality corn out of the price should be 2250-70 yuan / ton, to the port cost should be 2340-60 yuan / ton, with the current mainstream purchase price upside down 30-40 yuan / ton On the other hand, the current market generally lack of good corn, capacity of 700g /L or more, mold within 3% of good grain is difficult to find, so traders on this part of the corn price sized expectations, good grain out of the warehouse price on the basis of the acquisition cost to add a certain amount of expected price 2Be
　　North China corn stocks are lower than in the same period last year, sales areas increased northeast corn dependence Early by the impact of the sharp fall in pig prices, farmers to supplement the column cycle delayed, with the pig grain ratio continued to pick up, farmers will increase the willingness to supplement the column, the demand for high-quality corn also increased accordingly And the current limited number of good corn in the Northeast, North China traders in the surplus grain has also bottomed out, wheat prices are in the rapid rise channel, traders increased the amount of wheat replenishment, and corn out of the reservoir, resulting in the current North China traders' corn stocks lower than the same period last year, in the case of reduced supply and stable demand, corn prices are likely to rise Difficult to fall, so the southern feed plant, especially in Sichuan and other inland sales areas began to increase the purchase volume of northeast corn, supporting its price to the station upward, and thus attract the Northeast corn railway entry volume increased, and push up the cost of the production of traders, which is also the northern port of good grain acquisition is more difficult to buy a major reason 2Be
　　At present, wheat is in the upward channel, farmers have the mood to sell, traders also hold a bullish psychology, coupled with some production areas of wheat production reduction and quality decline, so it is expected that wheat prices will continue to rise in the later stages In addition, the market rumors, the recent pro-storage or liberalization of wheat acquisition standards, imperfect grain from 8% to 20%, if this rumor is true, the future increase in wheat prices will be greatly increased, and thus the price of corn to form a profit 2Be
　　To sum up, this year the port market has a strong independence, its current situation can not represent the mainstream market, with the market area and North China many land corn prices will start, northeast corn prices will continue to rise, or cause the entire market wind direction change, so the later should focus on the southern grain price changes and the Northeast corn railway entry volume Corn prices are expected to remain in the same room as they rise in July, supported by "cost-plus-expectations" 2Be