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Beginning late last week, compound fertilizer companies began a new round of adjustments, with an increase in amplitude and frequency.
The reasons are mainly as follows.
? On the one hand, raw materials continued to rise, and cost support increased.
As can be seen from the table below, the market for nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium has maintained a rising trend recently.
Among them, monoammonium has increased by 7.
25% and urea has increased by 5.
60%.
Although the increase of potassium fertilizer has narrowed, the price is still strong.
Traders are not speculating.
Less.
The rise in raw materials has formed a strong support for the cost and mentality of compound fertilizer.
In addition, most of the low-cost raw materials prepared by major enterprises in the early stage are mostly exhausted, that is to say, most of the compound fertilizers produced recently use late-stage high-cost raw materials.
? On the other hand, the pre-receipt is good and orders are abundant.
From the understanding of the pre-receipt orders of major compound fertilizer companies, some companies’ pre-receipts have exceeded 70% of the planned amount of spring plowing, and some have reached 80%.
Judging from the current delivery schedule, some corporate orders have been scheduled to the end of January or even February.
Under the support of good advance receipts, enterprises have a strong intention to push forward.
On the one hand, it can boost the market and promote agents to distribute goods; on the other hand, rising market conditions can pave the way for new orders for replenishment in the later period.
? Third, environmental protection governance, partial supply tightening.
Since late November, the environmental protection wind has struck.
In addition to the 7 major provinces and cities inspected by the second batch of inspection teams of the central government, Hebei, Shandong, Shanxi, Hunan and other places have serious air pollution and smog.
Local environmental protection departments have also joined the control.
Ranks.
From the perspective of the industries involved, lighting, ceramics, papermaking, printing and dyeing, cement, mining, fertilizers and other high pollution are the main ones; from the perspective of the intensity of remediation, it is no less than the first batch.
According to incomplete statistics, as of December 9th, as of December 9th, all parts of Shaanxi Province have handled 31 CCP bans, ordered 49 rectification, 17 closed down, 24 restricted production and stopped production, opened 62 cases, fined 6,547,100 yuan, and interviewed 65.
People, 196 people were held accountable, and 9 people were transferred to justice; Guangdong province has ordered 586 companies to rectify and punish 587 companies, including companies from all walks of life, with a proposed penalty amount of 2025.
30,000 yuan; 14 enterprises in Jingmen, Hubei will be relocated or remodeled.
? Under the pressure of environmental protection, many companies have been forced to rectify, restrict production, and suspend production to "festival" ahead of schedule.
According to the monitoring data of plant start-ups of enterprises, the average plant start-up rate of major compound fertilizer companies in major production areas is now less than 60%, compared to more than 70% in previous years.
The lack of start-up of enterprise installations has led to a tightening of local supply and laid the foundation for the rise of enterprise prices.
? Fourth inflation expectations.
At the end of November, Citibank stated that the outlook for global economic growth in 2017 is full of risks, and that both economic growth and inflation risks are on the downside, and it has raised the inflation recovery in advanced economies around the world from 0.
8% to 2.
0%.
According to the 2017 "Economic Blue Book" released by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, GDP growth for the whole year of 2017 will be around 6.
5, and inflationary pressures will gradually emerge.
Overall, the recent adjustments of compound fertilizer companies will increase, and prices will reach a new level; however, because the demand is still weak and dealers need a process to accept high prices, it is expected that new orders in the market may be limited.
The reasons are mainly as follows.
? On the one hand, raw materials continued to rise, and cost support increased.
As can be seen from the table below, the market for nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium has maintained a rising trend recently.
Among them, monoammonium has increased by 7.
25% and urea has increased by 5.
60%.
Although the increase of potassium fertilizer has narrowed, the price is still strong.
Traders are not speculating.
Less.
The rise in raw materials has formed a strong support for the cost and mentality of compound fertilizer.
In addition, most of the low-cost raw materials prepared by major enterprises in the early stage are mostly exhausted, that is to say, most of the compound fertilizers produced recently use late-stage high-cost raw materials.
? On the other hand, the pre-receipt is good and orders are abundant.
From the understanding of the pre-receipt orders of major compound fertilizer companies, some companies’ pre-receipts have exceeded 70% of the planned amount of spring plowing, and some have reached 80%.
Judging from the current delivery schedule, some corporate orders have been scheduled to the end of January or even February.
Under the support of good advance receipts, enterprises have a strong intention to push forward.
On the one hand, it can boost the market and promote agents to distribute goods; on the other hand, rising market conditions can pave the way for new orders for replenishment in the later period.
? Third, environmental protection governance, partial supply tightening.
Since late November, the environmental protection wind has struck.
In addition to the 7 major provinces and cities inspected by the second batch of inspection teams of the central government, Hebei, Shandong, Shanxi, Hunan and other places have serious air pollution and smog.
Local environmental protection departments have also joined the control.
Ranks.
From the perspective of the industries involved, lighting, ceramics, papermaking, printing and dyeing, cement, mining, fertilizers and other high pollution are the main ones; from the perspective of the intensity of remediation, it is no less than the first batch.
According to incomplete statistics, as of December 9th, as of December 9th, all parts of Shaanxi Province have handled 31 CCP bans, ordered 49 rectification, 17 closed down, 24 restricted production and stopped production, opened 62 cases, fined 6,547,100 yuan, and interviewed 65.
People, 196 people were held accountable, and 9 people were transferred to justice; Guangdong province has ordered 586 companies to rectify and punish 587 companies, including companies from all walks of life, with a proposed penalty amount of 2025.
30,000 yuan; 14 enterprises in Jingmen, Hubei will be relocated or remodeled.
? Under the pressure of environmental protection, many companies have been forced to rectify, restrict production, and suspend production to "festival" ahead of schedule.
According to the monitoring data of plant start-ups of enterprises, the average plant start-up rate of major compound fertilizer companies in major production areas is now less than 60%, compared to more than 70% in previous years.
The lack of start-up of enterprise installations has led to a tightening of local supply and laid the foundation for the rise of enterprise prices.
? Fourth inflation expectations.
At the end of November, Citibank stated that the outlook for global economic growth in 2017 is full of risks, and that both economic growth and inflation risks are on the downside, and it has raised the inflation recovery in advanced economies around the world from 0.
8% to 2.
0%.
According to the 2017 "Economic Blue Book" released by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, GDP growth for the whole year of 2017 will be around 6.
5, and inflationary pressures will gradually emerge.
Overall, the recent adjustments of compound fertilizer companies will increase, and prices will reach a new level; however, because the demand is still weak and dealers need a process to accept high prices, it is expected that new orders in the market may be limited.
