Monoammonium: Can the demand turn for the better?

Demand has always been the focus of the industry's attention.
Without demand, all improvements are in vain.
Since the second half of 2015, monoammonium has been suffering from weak demand.
Downstream compound fertilizer companies concentrated on purchasing monoammonium in April and May in advance, lest the price soared due to untimely supply in the later period, and subsequent demand The gradual decline, coupled with the uncertainty of the fertilizer market on the eve of the resumption of value-added tax, the slowdown in demand for monoammonium, and the delay in winter storage, the downturn in the downstream market also made the demand for monoammonium deteriorating, and the market for monoammonium after the Spring Festival was not clear.
See improvement.
Can such demand turn for the better? First, analyze the situation of downstream and downstream compound fertilizer companies.
At present, there is no quotation for compound fertilizer in Northeast China.
Although most companies have resumed production, they have started at a low level and the volume of goods is low.
The order is mainly issued before the start of spring demand.
The enthusiasm of downstream fertilizer preparation is not high.
The quotation of compound fertilizer in Shandong is high.
In order to maintain the reserve price, a single transaction is negotiated, and most companies still mainly issue pre-orders; most companies in Jiangsu Province have started more than 50%, and the current new orders have increased, and the delivery of goods has improved slightly.
Most of the companies are sent to Hebei, Anhui and Northeast regions.
Affected by the start-up of demand for top-dressing winter wheat in the two rivers regions, the company’s supply of goods has improved compared to the previous year, and the operating rate has gradually recovered, mostly in the surrounding and northeastern regions; the quotations in Anhui and Hubei and Hubei regions are mostly guaranteed base prices or temporary prices, and a few manufacturers have introduced With the buy-out price, most companies have cancelled their interest-bearing policies, and the operating rate has gradually recovered.
The enthusiasm for fertilizer preparation in the lower reaches of the southern region is not high.
Most companies have average shipments and mostly ship to Lianghe, Anhui and surrounding areas.
It can be seen that although some compound fertilizer companies have a slight increase in delivery, new orders are less frequent.
According to downstream feedback, grassroots distributors in previous years were afraid of buying fake and inferior products.
They would not purchase compound fertilizer until March 15th.
Only a few compound fertilizer companies release prices, so distributors are even more reluctant to purchase early.
Moreover, some large-scale compound fertilizer companies have a large inventory of finished products, and they are now the main sales inventory.
Recently, there is not much attention to the purchase of raw materials, and they only purchase on demand.
Although some small and medium-sized compound fertilizer enterprises in some areas have started construction one after another and are preparing to purchase raw materials, the quantity is basically not large, and most of them are collected as they are used.
It is also understood that only nitrogen fertilizers are sold by large traders after the holiday, and the purchase of phosphate and potash fertilizers has slowed down.
It can be seen that the domestic market is in a wait-and-see atmosphere, which is inevitably a severe challenge for monoammonium, which is mainly a compound fertilizer raw material.
Followed by the international market demand.
Although the home field of monoammonium is domestic, the demand for international monoammonium cannot be underestimated.
This week, the CIF price of monoammonium in Brazil rose slightly to 355-365 U.
S.
dollars.
Russian traders sold 10,000 tons of monoammonium to Brazil at a CIF price of 360-366 U.
S.
dollars.
This price is consistent with the recent sales of Russian suppliers.
The new intention to Brazil is the same FOB price of US$350; domestic monoammonium exports are still not improving, and the export volume is small.
According to customs statistics, the export volume of monoammonium phosphate in January 2016 was as low as 90,000 tons, and 55% of domestic monoammonium phosphate was released.
The shore price is about US$315, and the calculated arrival price is 1900 yuan, which is slightly lower.
Although domestic companies still have a certain profit at this price, the volume of export transactions is low, and there is no obvious support for exports.
.
To sum up, although the overall operating rate of compound fertilizer companies has increased to about 60%, the current delivery has not improved significantly.
In addition, the delivery of new orders is still poor due to the large-scale business owners supplying pending orders.
Some downstream distributors still Wait-and-see mainly, that is, looking for low-cost sources of supply.
Therefore, it is expected that the delivery of compound fertilizers will not increase significantly in the short term, and the pace of raw material procurement will also be slow; the international monoammonium market is gradually picking up, but if it is pulled It will take some time for the domestic monoammonium market to improve.
Therefore, the positive support for the domestic market has not yet appeared in the short term.