Ministry of Agriculture: review and Prospect of corn market in June 2002

Introduction: according to the latest situation, the corn output in 2001 is adjusted to 114 million tons this month, an increase of 4.38 million tons over the previous month, and it is estimated that the national corn export in 2001 / 2002 (October 2001 September 2002) will reach 6 million tons, an increase of 1 million tons over the previous month For other items, this month's forecast is basically the same as last month's Due to the readjustment of corn output and corn export volume in this month, the corn warehouse at the end of 2001 / 2002 will decrease by 12.27 million tons compared with the beginning inventory, but the decrease rate will be 3.14 million tons less than that of last month According to the follow-up observation of the corn market, the price of corn in China is still stable in May this year, but there is a rising trend Take grade 2 yellow corn as an example, the national average wholesale price in May is 1032 yuan / ton, which is only slightly higher than that of last month In the future, the factors that affect the decline of corn price will gradually weaken, and the factors that lead to the rise of corn price will dominate, so it is close to Corn will show a moderate upward trend in the period, and there is a possibility of a substantial increase in the long term The first reason is that the selling of aged grain may be reduced; the second reason is that with the gradual shortage of grain resources, the enterprises will increase their purchase and demand; the third reason is that the inventory may be greatly reduced and the domestic supply may be tense; the fourth reason is that even if a large amount of imported corn is imported, the international corn price can also rise According to the May U.S corn FOB price, it will be transported to the southern wharf of China after tax The delivery price has also reached 1160 yuan / ton, which is likely to exceed 1200 yuan / ton at that time In terms of international corn trade, 855000 tons of corn were exported in April 2002, a decrease of 245000 tons over the previous month The main export target countries are South Korea, Malaysia and Indonesia, with 338000 tons, 230000 tons and 147000 tons respectively, accounting for 39.5%, 27.0% and 17.2% of the total export volume In the first four months of this year, corn exports totaled 2.956 million tons, an increase of 410000 tons over the same period last year At the same time, in April this year, there was still no import of corn under the general trade mode The import was mainly processing with imported materials In the first four months, the total import of corn was 7087 tons According to the situation in the early part of this year, due to the general rebound of grain price in China, the decline of grain area has been restrained, especially the rebound of corn price According to the results of the intention survey of the National Bureau of statistics at the beginning of this year, the corn area may rise to some extent this year, but some changes have taken place in the later part From the recent survey of us to the northeast and Shandong corn production areas As a matter of fact, the sowing area of spring maize generally decreased Heilongjiang: driven by the "soybean revitalization plan", this year, the state arranged a 5.7 million mu high oil soybean planting plan in Heilongjiang Province, planned to subsidize seeds, about 10 yuan per mu, and stipulated that if the oil content of soybean is higher than 21%, the purchase price per Jin will rise by 1.5 points, high quality and good price will be implemented, and order planting will be implemented Therefore, the producer's enthusiasm for soybean planting is high, which is corresponding to this Part of the corn area has been replaced, and the rumor that the scope of corn protection price acquisition will be narrowed this year also affects the confidence of farmers in planting corn First, they are worried that corn will not be sold out, and second, corn prices will fall sharply after corn marketization It is estimated that this year's corn planting area in Heilongjiang Province will be reduced by about 3 million mu, or 9% over the previous year Jilin: according to the latest information of the agricultural department, the adjustment of the planting structure in Jilin is strong and effective The area of soybean maize rotation increased from 5.09 million mu last year to 7 million mu It is estimated that the corn area of the whole province will be about 30 million mu this year, which is more than 10% less than that of the previous year Among them, elm and Gongzhuling, the main corn producing areas in Jilin, will be reduced by more than 15% About Liaoning: compared with Jilin Province and Heilongjiang Province, Liaoning Province has less corn area, and the opportunity cost of planting corn is larger Therefore, the economic crops are more alternative to corn, and the corn area is expected to decline In a word, the planting situation of the whole spring corn in Northeast China is in the trend of reduction However, considering that the local government has exaggerated elements in order to pursue the effect of agricultural structure adjustment, it is estimated that the actual reduction of corn may be smaller than the statistical results For another main corn producing area, North China, the corn area is expected to show a stable trend due to the relatively high price of corn, which is also confirmed by the survey in Shandong Province This year, the corn planting area in Shandong Province is expected to be 37 million mu, basically the same as the previous year As for the southern corn production area, due to the adjustment of planting structure, the corn area may be flat and slightly increased Therefore, from the perspective of national corn planting as a whole, corn planting area will be flat and slightly reduced From this year's corn yield trend, since the first ten days of April, Northeast China has successively entered the corn planting period At the same time, the rainwater situation in each region has been well matched, and the soil moisture has been improved Farmers in Jilin and Liaoning areas began to rush for moisture and sow Before the May 1st movement, the corn sowing in Liaoning and Jilin was basically completed Among them, the corn planting progress in Jilin Province is more than 10 days ahead of the normal time, and more early stage light and accumulated temperature are obtained It is generally believed that the corn planting quality this year is the best year in recent years, laying a solid foundation for the harvest of this year In the South and southwest of Heilongjiang Province, corn was sown after late April Due to the high temperature this year, the sowing time was about 10-15 days earlier than that of the whole year At present, spring maize in Northeast China has sprouted and generally grows to more than three leaves In a word, the sowing quality of northeast maize is good this year, which has opened a good beginning for the harvest of the whole year In addition, the national meteorological department also predicted that the rainfall situation in the whole country was generally better than that of last year If the future climate is normal, the per unit yield of corn this year is expected to be significantly higher than that of last year (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: