Ministry of Agriculture: new direction of agricultural products market trend

Introduction: market early warning expert special discussion on agricultural products market and trend of yed Ministry of Agriculture In order to scientifically view and correctly guide the current agricultural product market, recently, the market and Economic Information Department of the Ministry of Agriculture organized experts from the market early warning Expert Committee of the Ministry of agriculture to gather in Shanghai to check the agricultural product market, and conducted a special discussion on the market situation of agricultural products since this year and the trend of next year Experts believe that under the influence of macro-economy, supply-demand relationship, production cycle and other factors, grain prices have slowed down this year, and the price fluctuation of some agricultural products has declined In 2013, the price of agricultural products in China will continue to rise steadily, but we should make full use of the minimum purchase price, temporary storage, import and export adjustment and other policy measures to prevent the increase of price decline of a few varieties from driving the whole agricultural production In the medium and long term, we should balance the total amount of key agricultural products, implement the mayor's responsibility system of "vegetable basket", strengthen the market warning work, further reduce the weight of food in the CPI structure, and constantly improve the level of market regulation Now the main views of the experts are summarized as follows, which can be used for reference by farmers and rural workers Yed 1 focuses on the price change of agricultural products yed 2 many measures to promote market regulation yed 3 strengthens the construction of information platform yed to stabilize the price of agricultural products to do a good job in total balance yed yuleng (Professor of School of economics and management, Shanghai Jiaotong University) yed agricultural product price is the appearance, behind the price change is the problem of supply and demand fluctuation Because of the substitutability among varieties of agricultural products, the demand will change when the price changes However, as long as the total supply of main agricultural products is well controlled, the price will tend to be stable, and the structural balance problem should be solved by the market The practices and experiences of big and small countries are different in the balance of total agricultural products Such a big country as the United States has an efficient marketing system for agricultural products, which controls the total amount through order farming Small countries, on the other hand, should pay attention to the varieties with regional characteristics The shortage and structural balance of other varieties can only be adjusted by the international market, such as Japan Yed China is a large agricultural country From the national level, the supply and demand are balanced However, in order to realize the effective supply of agricultural products, we should be efficient in both the "production and circulation" of agricultural products At present, the circulation system of agricultural products in China is not sound and perfect Many supply and demand dislocation and price problems are mainly caused by the low efficiency of the market Yed Therefore, the national level should be based on the domestic level to ensure the total amount balance of the main agricultural products, mainly on the basis of focusing on food production, focusing on strengthening the construction of the circulation system of agricultural products, mainly relying on the international market adjustment for the shortage of varieties; while for small varieties of agricultural products and regional agricultural products, the national level should consider the total amount, but more should rely on local government Government and market allocation, local government through the market mechanism and necessary intervention to solve the problem of structural balance To stabilize the price of food, yed needs to strengthen the "vegetable basket" mayor's responsibility system Among the several works that yed yinou (deputy director of Shanghai Municipal Committee of Agriculture) is in charge of, the most difficult thing is the market information There are three "most": the lowest in mind, the least in work, and the most urgent in reality To build two information platforms, one for the citizens and the other for the farmers, yed needs to study the quantity and price of agricultural products to guide production There are three kinds of prices: trading price, wholesale price and retail price The three prices have different sensitivities but rules to follow For example, the price of vegetable in Shanghai is generally 1:3 Grain is a national strategy The price of grain has been on the rise for a long time Farmers are highly motivated to grow grain and will not bear market risks However, vegetables are the products of people's livelihood, which depend on the mayor's responsibility system It may not be effective to study how to catch vegetables at the national level At present, there are several difficulties in vegetable market information monitoring and market regulation: first, the authenticity of data information; second, the consistency of data statistical caliber; third, the fuzziness of analysis, the balance of total amount, the surplus of structure and the difficulty of partial sale The fourth is the lag of production guidance, which can not meet the micro requirements of farmers' production; the fifth is the blindness of planting; the sixth is the disorder of decision-making More production is an economic problem, less is a people's livelihood problem, which leads to desperately stimulating production There are three sentences in Japan's experience: scientific determination of consumption, tight balance of production arrangements, timely government intervention (destruction of vegetables exceeding consumption, government subsidies, and appropriate opening of the international market when consumption is lower than a certain amount) Japan protects the market from the perspective of producers, while we protect the market from the perspective of consumers The practical experience of Shanghai's "vegetable basket" work is as follows: first, it relies on the large market and adheres to the quantity; second, the mayor's responsibility system of "vegetable basket" moves down to all districts and counties; third, it has both guidance and control over production; fourth, agricultural and commercial cooperation to stabilize supply There are more and more factors influencing the fluctuation of agricultural products market The important significance of the market early warning is to prevent the trend that is not conducive to the stability of the market and reduce the price fluctuation In recent years, there are more and more factors influencing the market fluctuation In addition to the periodic fluctuation of agricultural products market which is determined by the dispersion of agricultural spatial distribution and the characteristics of regional, seasonal production and market signal time lag, some factors not determined by the market supply and demand relationship also play a role in promoting the agricultural products market fluctuation, which leads to the phenomenon of violating the law of supply and demand from time to time Life Cobweb theory tells us that the periodic fluctuation of agricultural products market is a normal state, but this does not mean that the market early warning can not be done The market early warning is to make efforts to reduce the frequency of periodic fluctuation This needs to be done through the market warning letter yed To some extent, the government of information and supply should intervene, but this kind of intervention should not only follow the law of market economy, but also follow the objective law of the interweaving and integration of agricultural natural reproduction and economic reproduction Any "excessive" intervention that deviates from this objective law will certainly backfire, leading to the increase of volatility, and the common agricultural products in the market are "more, less The phenomenon of "less" deserves our reflection on the intervention effect The market fluctuation contrary to the law of supply and demand is more harmful When studying market fluctuation and making market early warning, we can consider futures speculation, quality and safety events, smuggling and other factors as virtual variables, so as to scientifically set the early warning line for the government's macro-control reference and make corresponding plans To ensure the initiative of the core agricultural industry is the key to yed Zhu Xinkai Whether yed corn will become the second soybean industry depends on who owns the initiative of the corn industry In 2004, we lost the soybean industry overnight because we lost the initiative first What has the final say that when soybean crushing enterprises are facing difficulties, international industrial capital and financial capital will be bought or merged without our defense When the international capital controls the initiative of soybean industry, what material is used is of course the final say Therefore, it is a top priority for us to improve the laws and regulations related to international capital as soon as possible At present, the weight of food in the CPI composition is still too high At present, China has generally entered the development stage of "industry for agriculture, city for township" In this period, the establishment of CPI should be subject to the overall situation and adjusted in time Otherwise, it will artificially overestimate the impact of agricultural products on CPI and enlarge the impact of agricultural products prices on CPI, which is not conducive to the start-up of macro agricultural and rural policies, including the construction of sustainable growth mechanism of farmers' income Why don't national statistical departments issue core CPI to guide macro monetary policy and market? At present, the academic discussion is more about the result of compromising the pressure of public opinion Different from the headline inflation published by the statistics department, it is more difficult for monetary authorities to communicate with the public if they operate monetary policy under the guidance of core inflation Because different from the fact that the media often pay more attention to headline inflation and the public is more sensitive to commodity prices, the removal of core inflation from some items and the selection of weight reduce the transparency of the indicator, and the items reflecting the price trend change are often far away from the items that the public directly contacts Both of these aspects may make the monetary situation with core inflation as the policy reference Pressure on public opinion On the other hand, the independence of a central bank is very important if it wants to operate monetary policy under the guidance of core inflation Improvement of overall domestic grain supply and demand situation From the perspective of production, supported by the country's measures to strengthen agriculture, benefit agriculture and enrich agriculture and other factors such as better grain yield in 2011, the country's grain planting area increased steadily in 2012, and the proportion of high-yield grain crops continued to expand In addition, the weather in the main production area is generally favorable, it is estimated that the total grain output this year will exceed 11000 billion jin From the perspective of consumption, with the increase of population, the improvement of people's living standards and the increase of the proportion of urban population, the total domestic food consumption will continue to increase in 2012, and the consumption structure will continue to upgrade It is estimated that the total national food consumption is more than 12000 billion Jin, an increase of more than 2% over the previous year Among them, the proportion of grain ration consumption in domestic grain consumption has further declined, and the growth rate of industrial grain consumption has slowed down due to macro-control and industry recession From the perspective of purchasing situation, both commodity purchasing and policy purchasing of enterprises have increased compared with the previous year, and the purchasing volume of national policy grain has increased greatly From the perspective of inventory, at present, the national grain Inventory (raw grain) is at a high level in history, and the inventory of various varieties has increased, and the national policy grain inventory has increased more than the same period last year Yed From the perspective of market trend in the later period and next year, wheat prices will keep rising due to the increase of the minimum purchase price in 2013, the peak season of consumption, and the decrease of market grain sources However, due to the sufficient inventory and the decrease of feed substitution consumption, the price increase is limited In 2012 / 13, China's rice supply and demand tend to be loose, and it is estimated that the supply is more than 20 billion jin This year's domestic mid late period The price of rice will be high in general With the large number of new grains coming into the market, the price of Japonica Rice will be high and low, with a large part of decline It is possible to start supporting the market The overall high opening of medium and late indica rice will be stable, and the possibility of supporting the market is small It is estimated that in 2012, the national corn output will reach about 390 billion jin, and the consumption will be about 380 billion jin In the near future, the domestic corn price will continue to be weak since September However, with the introduction of the national temporary storage policy and the improvement of the economic situation, the price will gradually pick up in the later stage of the acquisition; it is estimated that the national soybean output will be about 27 billion jin in 2012, down from last year Before yed, Shen Guiyin (deputy director of rural economic research center of Ministry of Agriculture)