Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: There is no possibility of a big fall in pig prices in the fourth quarter! Short.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs website october 15 news, a few days ago, reporters from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was informed that since the third quarter, China's agricultural products market supply is generally adequate, the market operation is basically stable, by the recovery of consumption-driven prices in general stable rise.
reporter interviewed the relevant person in charge of the Marketing and Information Technology Department of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs on related issues.
: In the third quarter of this year, China's agricultural products market performance of what characteristics? A: According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, China's wholesale agricultural product price index of 119.34 (compared with 100 in 2015) in the third quarter, up 2.24 points month-on-month and 7.67 points year-on-year.
varieties, grain prices recovered, volatility is still in a reasonable range, corn prices rose relatively large, has stabilized recently; Affected by natural disasters, vegetable prices rose, the average price of 28 kinds of vegetables rose 11.7% month-on-month in the third quarter, the price of aquatic products rose slightly, but overall in line with seasonal laws;
Looking ahead to the market, this year's summer grain, early rice has been harvested, autumn grain harvest has also been finalized, pork market supply will continue to improve, "basket" production situation is good, to maintain the smooth operation of the agricultural products market has a solid foundation.
Later around the autumn grain will gradually enter the centralized market period, in the year-round grain production, adequate inventory of the fundamentals, food prices rise or fall is not likely, all aspects should be a comprehensive rational view of market fluctuations, farmers should reasonably arrange the pace of grain sales, sell a good price, to avoid poor custody caused by the loss of bad grain, traders and processing enterprises do not need to hoard and buy, to prevent speculation brought about by the risk.
Reporter: This year's outbreak of new crown pneumonia has brought a certain impact on domestic production and life, from the end of August to the beginning of September in the northeast region was hit by a typhoon, please ask how much impact these emergencies on corn production and market? What is the trend of the corn market in the latter stages? A: First of all, the impact of the outbreak.
Although the first quarter of the new crown pneumonia epidemic on the normal operation of the corn market caused a certain impact, but with the outbreak was effectively controlled, corn purchase and sale quickly returned to normal, the beginning of April compared with the same period last year, the progress of grain sales has been basically flat, the impact of the epidemic on the fundamentals of corn supply and demand is generally limited, more in the market psychology and expectations of the impact.
to talk about corn production this year.
This year corn planting area is basically stable, the overall trend is better, at the end of August and early September, the northeast production area suffered three consecutive typhoons, some areas of corn collapse, but when the typhoon occurred in most areas of corn growth has entered the late wax cooked, the yield has been basically formed, and the disaster-stricken areas are better, the total corn production is expected to increase steadily this year.
From the corn market trend, this year by the demand growth and market speculation factors, corn prices continue to rise, in August, the average wholesale price of production and sales areas reached 2270 yuan per ton and 2444 yuan, respectively, is the 2016 corn storage system reform Since the new high, but after entering September, with the gradual listing of new corn, as well as the auction of corn, prices have shown a certain seasonal decline, the average monthly wholesale price in September production area of 2222 yuan per ton, down 2.1% month-on-month.
Later in the year, with the gradual increase in the market volume of corn in the main producing areas, the export of corn, traders to speed up the sale of grain in hand, as well as imported corn and substitutes to Hong Kong, corn market supply situation will gradually turn loose, in the short term prices are expected to remain stable or slightly lower.
: The recent domestic soybean prices from rising to falling, please ask soybean prices to fall for what reason? What is the market situation in the future? A: Since August, domestic soybean prices have fallen back from high levels.
, according to monitoring, in September, the average purchase price of domestic edible soybeans in Heilongjiang was 2.52 yuan per kilogram, down 4.1% month-on-month, and down more than 4% month-on-month for the second consecutive month, up 34.3% year-on-year.
recent decline in domestic soybean prices, mainly due to the new season soybean production on the market, coupled with the National Reserve soybean auction, soybean market supply and demand phase easing.
In early August, Hubei and other middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River production areas of the new season soybeans have been listed, in late September, North China, Northeast soybean production areas have also been harvested and listed, the main trade body wait-and-see psychology gradually strengthened, the production area market transactions turned light.
as of September 25, the State Reserve soybean auction in 2020 sold a total of 1.188 million tons, of which, in the third quarter, a cumulative turnover of 998,000 tons, accounting for 84.0% of the total volume, the domestic soybean market supply increased significantly.
Into the fourth quarter, the new domestic soybean season will usher in a concentrated listing period, as soybean production is expected to continue to recover this year, market supply tends to be loose, prices have the possibility of continuing to fall back high, remind the vast number of soybean farmers to pay attention to market changes, grasp the pace of grain sales, pay attention to prevent market risks.
: What has been the situation in the pork market since the third quarter? What is the situation and price trend of pork supply and demand in the later period? A: Since the third quarter, as pig production capacity continues to recover, market supply continues to improve, pork prices from the rise to fall, since the end of July has been more than two months in a row to maintain a small fluctuation and decline trend, the Mid-Autumn Festival, National Day period market operation is basically stable, prices continue to stabilize.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs monitoring and dispatching 200 wholesale markets, the average price of the national wholesale pork market in the second week of October 2020 (October 5-11) was RMB44.42 per kilogram, down 2.9% month-on-month and 9.5% year-on-year.
based on the current pork production and consumption situation comprehensive judgment, it is expected that the fourth quarter of domestic pork prices will be mainly volatile operation, volatility will not be too large, more than last year's historical high is unlikely.
, pig production capacity continues to accelerate recovery.
According to data from 400 monitoring counties of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the number of sows in storage has increased month-on-month for 11 consecutive months since October 2019 and has expanded;
, according to the previous pig production capacity recovery data, the fourth quarter will enter a period of continuous cashing of production capacity, and the growth rate is expected to gradually expand.
addition, the import and stockpile of frozen pork can effectively supplement the market supply.
, according to the General Administration of Customs, pork imports in January-August were 2.91 million tons, up 133.7 percent year-on-year, surpassing the total pork imports for 2019.
other hand, with the new crown pneumonia epidemic prevention and control situation is improving, China's social and economic activities have steadily resumed, pork demand will gradually increase to normal levels.
according to the National Bureau of Statistics, residents' out-of-home consumption activity increased, and the food and beverage industry showed clear signs of recovery, with food and beverage revenue falling 7.0 percent year-on-year in August, a decline of 25.8 percentage points from June.
fourth quarter is the traditional peak consumption season of pork, consumption growth and pig supply to restore synchronization, supply and demand tension will gradually slow down, pork prices are unlikely to rise or fall.