Meal prices will continue to rise

OA show ('918 '); some experts in the oil world have pointed out that the world meal price will continue to rise in the year of 00 / 01 The reasons are as follows: first, the rise of raw material prices will drive up meal prices On May 12, USDA predicted that the world wheat stock would drop 13% to 109 million tons in the year of 00 / 01, the lowest in nearly 30 years Although soybean production is expected to increase by 4.8 million tons in the next year, the increase in the supply of all oilseeds is only 3.9 million tons, which is really insignificant compared with the increase of 8.1 million tons in this year and 10.2 million tons in five years It can be concluded that soybean and grain prices will have a larger upward space The Storability of meal is very poor, so it is very sensitive to the supply relationship The rise of soybean and grain reflects the rise of meal price 2、 Meal inventory and inventory / consumption ratio showed a downward trend Oil world expects that in the year of 00 / 01, the global inventory of 12 kinds of oil meal will be reduced by 250000 tons to 7 million tons Among them, soybean meal accounts for 4.9 million tons, and fish meal accounts for 760000 tons That is to say, the inventory / consumption ratio of soybean meal will be reduced to 4.3% from 4.6% this year, which will be the lowest since 1996 / 97 The consumption ratio of 12 kinds of oil meal is expected to be 3.4%, which is also the low point for many years It can be seen that in the global meal market in the future, the supply is less than the demand, which is bound to drive up the price of meal However, there are still many uncertain factors in the upward direction of meal market It is likely that we underestimated the oil seed production of South America in the year of 00 / 01 The weather in the northern hemisphere was good from May to August 2000, and the growth of oil seeds was excellent Based on the above factors, the oil world forecasts that the price of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in the year of 00 / 01 will be higher than that of this year China feed industry information network RBS (author:)