May soybean meal market surprise, June can be the icing on the cake?

introduction:FBfMay soybean meal market can be described as a surprise, the market speculation turned. Early U.S. Chen bean supply is tight, domestic and foreign soybean market rally strong, its speculation cooled, the new weather speculation U.S. soybean cultivation delayed again Lido market, coupled with soybean arrival volume less than expected, soybean meal inventory is insufficient, May soybean meal market out of the bull market.. FBfU.S. bean speculation heating up even bean meal staged double main marketFBfFBfU.S. bean 07 contract daily chart data source: Wenhua FinanceFBfFBfEven Bean Meal 09 contract daily chart data source: Wenhua FinanceFBfMay domestic and foreign soybean futures market rose strongly, the market began to rally strongly in early May. In early May, the market attention has been around the U.S. Chen bean inventory tight, due to the early China to South America supply, soybean export demand declined, the trend of U.S. soybeans at the beginning of the month is more volatile, near strong and far weak pattern is more obvious. The July contract hit a nine-week high as speculation about soybean supply heats up. Starting in mid-to-late May, the market hype turned to the weather. Soybean seeding was delayed due to rain delaying spring planting, supporting the long-term contract for U.S. soybeans. The 07 contract remained at its highest level in eight months due to tight supply and favourable weather, with the US bean contract moving from a near-strong and weak pattern to an overall strength. Along with the overall strength of the United States beans, domestic even plate soybean meal also staged a double main market. At the end of the month, 07 U.S. beans closed down 1,532 cents, or 1.46 percent, and the soybean meal contract was 3,540 yuan/tonne, down 3.09 percent, with a peak of 3,550 yuan/tonne and a low of 3,452 yuan/tonne this month. June focused on the U.S. soybean planting process and the arrival of Chinese soybeans.. FBfoil plant start-up rate slowly rebounded May soybean meal volume turnoverFBf FBf FBf data source: China feed industry information network units: yuan / ton, tons of FBf May domestic soybean meal spot market as a whole up, the average price of soybean meal at the end of the month was 4040 yuan / ton, up 200 yuan / ton from the beginning of the month. Domestic oil plants have a strong price mentality, including the northeast region soybean meal price increases of more than 200 yuan, of which the northeast rose as high as 280 yuan; This month's turnover was called a marked improvement last month, the monthly turnover of about 1.694 million tons, an increase of 730,000 tons, the highest daily turnover of 1394 million tons; At the end of the month, some Brazilian soybeans arrived in Hong Kong, the oil plant start-up rate slowly recovered, but the overall remains low level, soybean arrival volume will continue to increase in early June, the start-up rate will continue to improve, is expected to return to a high level around June 10. In terms of inventory, the port soybean inventory gradually increased, the overall remains tight, less than 4 million tons, the oil plant soybean meal inventory is also in the non-execution of the contract volume continued to increase, in a gradual reduction state, as of 21 weeks, soybean meal inventory of less than 400,000 tons, while the unexecuted contract volume increased to 1.1 million tons. Soybean arrivals are likely to hit a record high of 7-8 million tonnes in June, but some of the shipping schedules are likely to be delayed, according to tracked shipments, and soybean arrivals are estimated at 6.5 million tonnes in July and around 5 million tonnes in August. The market is generally believed that the fall in soybean meal in mid-to-late June is more obvious, the upward momentum in the first half of the year may be limited. Overall, soybean meal prices face upward pressure, terminal stock will be more and more cautious, June procurement strategy is still mainly buy-as-you-go, high need to be cautious. . FBf supply market speculation Lido soybean meal market FBf 1, Brazil soybean port transport delayed due to the FBf early due to traffic problems in Brazil, soybean arrival has been repeatedly delayed. Soybean arrivals fell short of expectations in April, and Brazil's soybean shipment season, which was extended in May due to traffic congestion, will be extended by two months. Brazil exported 5 m2 of soybeans in the first three weeks of May, or recorded its highest monthly soybean export, due to high demand for soybeans from its recent record harvest, according to the Trade Ministry. But the latest rains could delay the last week of May, when soybean exports are expected to be delayed. In addition, Brazil's soybean shipment season will extend into at least July, as Brazil's soybean production hits a record high, blocking ports and road traffic, according to SA Commodities, a Brazilian consultancy. Thus, in May, China's soybean arrival volume or will be less than expected, will be postponed to June, which is also the result of domestic soybean inventory shortage, low start-up oil plant, soybean meal prices are an indispensable reason. . FBf 2, the U.S. bean seeding delay weather speculation into a foreign cause FBf the U.S. side after the early inventory of the hype, and then ushered in the weather speculation at the end of the month. Speculation that the U.S. is importing soybeans from South America has boosted the market for beans in and around the country, as the u.S. domestic soybean supply is extremely tight. As the hype cooled, U.S. soybean seeding was delayed by bad weather, threatening yield potential. By the end of the month, U.S. soybean planting had completed 44 percent, up from 2 percent a week ago, but 61 percent behind the five-year average. Soybean seeding rate was 14%, 30% below the five-year average. This round of speculation, so that the U.S. bean contract from near strong and far weak pattern to the overall strength of the situation, further boosting the price of soybean meal higher. . FBf downstream demand warm short-term support market FBf FBf data source: China feed industry information network unit: yuan / kg FBf soybean meal in poultry feed consumption occupies a pivotal position, and the previous period of avian influenza greatly depressed the consumption of soybean meal in poultry feed. As the weather warms up, the avian flu epidemic gradually subsides, basically returns to normal, poultry consumption has also begun to return to normal, soybean meal downstream demand is gradually warming. In terms of pigs, since the start of the regulation plan, pig prices have stabilized and rebounded, the trend of rapid decline has been initially curbed, pig prices gradually rebounded signs. As of May 31, most of the country's aquaculture losses have narrowed to 30-50 yuan / head, local areas of 20-30 yuan / head profits. The impact of the improvement in breeding benefits quickly spread to the piglet market, piglet prices rose sharply this month, as of May 31, the price of three yuan piglets outside the country has rebounded to 27.5 yuan / kg, up 13.8% from the beginning of the month, indicating that the breeding supplement situation improved, in the short term to support the downstream consumption of soybean meal. . FBf FBf data source: China Feed Industry Information Network Unit: First FBf Ministry of Agriculture monitoring data show that in April 2013, China's pig stock column was 44,713, down 3.4% year-on-year, up 0.7% month-on-month. The number of sows that can be breeding fell from the previous month to 5.08 million, up 0.1% year-on-year, although the increase was slightly lower than the previous three months, but the number of sows is still in a high state. Therefore, in the first half of the large-scale outbreak of the premise, soybean meal in the first half of pig feed demand is still rigid. But at present, pig farming is still in the loss, leading to the next few months feed demand expectations decreased, to a certain extent affecting domestic feed manufacturers on the spot trend of soybean meal is more bearish. . FBf after-market forecast FBf May soybean meal market did not decline as expected, but increased. Some people in the industry believe that the current oil plant washing more ships, follow-up soybeans to Hong Kong than expected, the start rate of each oil plant is still low. Feed buyers wait and see more strong, cautious procurement, June soybean meal prices are difficult to come down. At present, south American soybean arrival time is still affected by uncertainties, soybean arrival volume and expected no increase, the domestic soybean meal market supply is still tight. Oil plant operating rate is low, the implementation of the contract gradually expanded, have supported the price of soybean meal, coupled with warmer weather, downstream consumption improved, it is expected that the spot price of soybean meal in mid-June is expected to rise and fall. Procurement is not recommended to buy or empty, buy as you like. . FBf introduction: FBf May soybean meal market can be a surprise, the market hype turned to the scene. Early U.S. Chen bean supply is tight, domestic and foreign soybean market rally strong, its speculation cooled, the new weather speculation U.S. soybean cultivation delayed again Lido market, coupled with soybean arrival volume less than expected, soybean meal inventory is insufficient, May soybean meal market out of the bull market. . FBf U.S. bean speculation heating up even bean meal staged double main market FBf FBf U.S. bean 07 contract daily chart data source: Wenhua Finance FBf FBf Even Bean Meal 09 contract daily chart data source: Wenhua Finance FBf May domestic and foreign soybean futures market rose strongly, the market began to rally strongly in early May. In early May, the market attention has been around the U.S. Chen bean inventory tight, due to the early China to South America supply, soybean export demand declined, the trend of U.S. soybeans at the beginning of the month is more volatile, near strong and far weak pattern is more obvious. The July contract hit a nine-week high as speculation about soybean supply heats up. Starting in mid-to-late May, the market hype turned to the weather. Soybean seeding was delayed due to rain delaying spring planting, supporting the long-term contract for U.S. soybeans. The 07 contract remained at its highest level in eight months due to tight supply and favourable weather, with the US bean contract moving from a near-strong and weak pattern to an overall strength. Along with the overall strength of the United States beans, domestic even plate soybean meal also staged a double main market. At the end of the month, 07 U.S. beans closed down 1,532 cents, or 1.46 percent, and the soybean meal contract was 3,540 yuan/tonne, down 3.09 percent, with a peak of 3,550 yuan/tonne and a low of 3,452 yuan/tonne this month. June focused on the U.S. soybean planting process and the arrival of Chinese soybeans. . FBf oil plant start-up rate slowly rebounded May soybean meal volume turnover FBf FBf FBf data source: China feed industry information network units: yuan / ton, tons of FBf May domestic soybean meal spot market as a whole up, the average price of soybean meal at the end of the month was 4040 yuan / ton, up 200 yuan / ton from the beginning of the month. Domestic oil plants have a strong price mentality, including the northeast region soybean meal price increases of more than 200 yuan, of which the northeast rose as high as 280 yuan; This month's turnover was called a marked improvement last month, the monthly turnover of about 1.694 million tons, an increase of 730,000 tons, the highest daily turnover of 1394 million tons; At the end of the month, some Brazilian soybeans arrived in Hong Kong, the oil plant start-up rate slowly recovered, but the overall remains low level, soybean arrival volume will continue to increase in early June, the start-up rate will continue to improve, is expected to return to a high level around June 10. In terms of inventory, the port soybean inventory gradually increased, the overall remains tight, less than 4 million tons, the oil plant soybean meal inventory is also in the non-execution of the contract volume continued to increase, in a gradual reduction state, as of 21 weeks, soybean meal inventory of less than 400,000 tons, while the unexecuted contract volume increased to 1.1 million tons. Soybean arrivals are likely to hit a record high of 7-8 million tonnes in June, but some of the shipping schedules are likely to be delayed, according to tracked shipments, and soybean arrivals are estimated at 6.5 million tonnes in July and around 5 million tonnes in August. The market is generally believed that the fall in soybean meal in mid-to-late June is more obvious, the upward momentum in the first half of the year may be limited. Overall, soybean meal prices face upward pressure, terminal stock will be more and more cautious, June procurement strategy is still mainly buy-as-you-go, high need to be cautious. . FBf supply market speculation Lido soybean meal market FBf 1, Brazil soybean port transport delayed due to the FBf early due to traffic problems in Brazil, soybean arrival has been repeatedly delayed. Soybean arrivals fell short of expectations in April, and Brazil's soybean shipment season, which was extended in May due to traffic congestion, will be extended by two months. Brazil exported 5 m2 of soybeans in the first three weeks of May, or recorded its highest monthly soybean export, due to high demand for soybeans from its recent record harvest, according to the Trade Ministry. But recently.