Market situation and forecast of poultry industry

Introduction: 1 Egg market situation and market forecast 1 Egg market price situation Since September, the egg price situation is good The retail price of fresh egg is 5.73 yuan / kg, 0.48 yuan higher than the average 5.25 yuan / kg in the first half of the year, up 9.20% This is the highest egg price in three months, and the price situation is still favorable However, due to the high price of corn, most provinces are still losing money in the near future, and the situation is not very good Due to the increase of corn price, layer production is in a dilemma Some provinces are no longer sustainable In September, the price of fresh eggs rose in 28 provinces, accounting for 93.3% of the whole country Most of them are Xinjiang, Ningxia, Hubei, Chongqing and Guizhou, with an average increase of 0.81 yuan Secondly, Hainan, Jiangsu, Fujian, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Liaoning, Tianjin, Hebei, Shanghai, Beijing and other provinces and regions It shows that egg prices in all provinces and regions have been keeping a low price for quite a long time, and now they are in the swing stage Even if the price is raised, the profit is still very low, and the problem of profit cannot be solved, which is the decisive factor in the current fluctuation stage of the layer It is worth noting that egg prices are rising in major provinces of the country Producers need to often find profitable markets and make money by using location differences There is still a large gap in the price of eggs, indicating that the circulation of commodities is not smooth, so enterprises should pay attention to seize the opportunity Some efforts in circulation may ease some difficulties, but the most important thing is to grasp the market fluctuation trend 2 The recent profit situation of laying hens: the price of eggs is not equal to the profit The profit is measured by input-output, with 5.0 as the profit and loss boundary point At present, the profit situation is not good In September, the price of eggs and grains is 4.75:1, but it is 7.29% higher than the average price of eggs and grains in the first half of the year That means profits are rising and costs are falling This is the highest profit in three months But the laying industry is still in the red According to the region, there are 24 provinces below the profit and loss boundary The serious loss provinces are Shanxi, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Beijing, Shandong, Hubei, Shanghai, Fujian, Tianjin, Jiangxi, Hebei and the northeast The prices of these provinces may be rising, but the profit situation is not good The loss area accounts for 80% The ratio of egg to grain in 9 provinces was lower than 4.0:1 Beijing is on the brink of 4.16 yuan The laying industry is in a serious loss, even if the rural specialized households raise chickens, it is difficult to obtain profits It seems that the only way out is to continue to reduce stocks, reduce production and get rid of the situation of excess In September, only seven provinces (Chongqing, Guizhou, Sichuan, Xinjiang, Yunnan, Shaanxi and Hunan) made profits These provinces and regions are located in the southwest mountainous area, the price of fresh eggs has been very high, and it is difficult to import from other places But their market capacity is limited and has little impact on the whole country It seems that most provinces will continue to lose money It is expected that the production of laying hens will show a sliding wave, which will not be reversed in the short term 3 The loss of laying hens also affected the situation of laying hens The market price of laying hens in September was 2.10 yuan, 6.97% higher than the half year average of 1.96 yuan This is the peak price of eggs in three months, up 0.17 yuan from last month That is to say, since April, the laying hens have begun to mend their fences This is the right decision The breeder should study the periodic fluctuation of layers and analyze when the breeder needs to make up the cage Now the sale of egg nestlings happens to produce eggs after the egg grain price ratio goes out of the trough Although we make monthly analysis and try our best to come up with forecast results, it is also very difficult to grasp due to limited data sources In September, the price of eggs and nestlings increased in 16 provinces, accounting for 53.33% of the national price increase The order is Ningxia, Xinjiang, Guizhou, Gansu, Yunnan, Shanxi, Hunan, Liaoning, Zhejiang, Henan, Hebei, Anhui and so on The average egg sales increased by 0.58 yuan The price of eggs is still higher in the southwest and northwest border areas There are 11 provinces where the price of eggs dropped, most of which are Inner Mongolia, Chongqing, Shandong, Jiangsu, Fujian, Shaanxi, Guangdong, Hubei, Tianjin, Shanghai and Beijing The price reduction is mainly distributed in traditional chicken breeding areas and large cities Some people think that the low price of eggs leads to the reduction of the stock In fact, this is a misunderstanding Breeders should not be priced according to the price of eggs They should consider the fluctuation cycle and analyze the situation of breeding so as to determine the production, sales and price of eggs and ensure their own profits Because the market prediction system of our country has not been established, the risk of agricultural investment is still very large Moreover, China's grain is also scattered in the hands of farmers, and it is very difficult for the government to regulate and control, so it is often "difficult to buy and sell" Animal husbandry enterprises should cooperate with each other to establish animal husbandry information system Only by establishing perfect market prediction system, can they have more reliable control means and reduce the risk of market fluctuation 2、 The fluctuation and forecast of broiler market 1 The production and market trend of Broiler in China is a mature industry From resources, production, processing to market sales, a one-stop management and production system has been formed Although the price of broiler has been falling again and again, the profit and market have remained stable Both urban and rural broiler industry can continue to develop In September 2001, the price of live chicken was 9.08 yuan per kilogram, up 4.1% from the average price of 8.73 yuan in half a year, the highest price in three months But profits are falling Broiler is a mature industry with strong adaptability Although the price and profit of broiler have a downward trend, the profitability of broiler industry has not been weakened Most provinces and regions have been maintaining production recently, and the situation is not very bad In September, there were 15 provinces in which live chickens made profits, most of which were Jiangxi, Chongqing, Guizhou, Sichuan, Yunnan, Hunan, Qinghai, Fujian, Xinjiang, Shanghai, Shaanxi, Guangdong, etc., accounting for 50.0% of the country's total, which seems to be mainly distributed in southwest and Northwest provinces The prices of live chickens are relatively high, most of them are about 11 yuan per kilogram There are 15 provinces with losses, including Shandong, Tianjin, Heilongjiang, Hebei, Shanxi, Hainan, Zhejiang, Inner Mongolia, Jiangsu, Beijing, Liaoning, Guangxi, Jilin and Henan The price of live chicken dropped below 7.0 yuan per kilogram Of course, these provinces mainly rely on processing and export, improve technical efficiency and marketing means, and still maintain low profits or little losses The law of the market is that big cities and some provinces with relatively early development are not as good as those in southwest and northwest provinces It seems that these areas must improve technology, reduce costs and reach a high level to maintain profits Fortunately, there is great potential in the industry As long as we strengthen management, develop processing, pay attention to asset re combination, realize industrial integration, expand processing varieties and market sales, we will still be competitive Market analysis and market forecast is an indispensable management of modern broiler production, and it is also a very difficult subject In order to make profits, enterprises must grasp the three "differences" of the market: the "market time difference"; "market area position difference"; and "production structure difference" This is the principle that entrepreneurs must think about, and also the goal of our services - to make more profits for enterprises Feed industry, chicken breeding industry, relevant service industry and investors should analyze their own production and market trends in combination with the market trends of each province (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: