Market prospect of wheat, corn and rice in 2003

Introduction: new page 1 (I) the wheat market is weak and the price is low 7ts 1 The decrease of wheat supply is conducive to the price rise As the country continues to implement the planting structure adjustment policy, the winter wheat is expected to decrease, and the market supply is expected to be short According to the data provided by the State Food Information Center, the planting area of Winter Wheat (winter wheat sown in autumn in 2002) in 2003 / 2004 in China was 20.4 million hectares, down 5.12% again compared with the previous year On the other hand, due to the severe drought in the major wheat exporting countries in the world, China's wheat export is strong, and the international market price is strongly pulled up, which also makes China's wheat export volume remain high The favorable export situation plays a positive role in reducing domestic inventory and promoting the upward market price 7ts 2 Promote the policy of stock squeeze, which makes the price drop In the current situation of supply and demand, the promotion behavior of the main wheat producing provinces and other factors will also have a great impact on the market In order to reduce the inventory pressure, the main wheat producing provinces have formulated the promotion and inventory pressure plans The promotion will directly lead to the decline of wheat price Although the price of 7ts common wheat is rising seasonally at present, under the influence of policy and market factors, the market price will not rise much, and it is expected that the trend of wheat price in the future will be generally in a depressed situation Affected by the rising international market price, high-quality wheat will rise under the pull of domestic consumption As the supply of domestic high-quality wheat has exceeded the demand, the price of high-quality wheat is not expected to rise much 7ts (2) corn is affected by the high international price and the increase of domestic supply The fluctuation of 7ts domestic corn market will be mainly affected by the changes of supply and demand The high price of corn in the international market provides a market opportunity for China to continue to export more corn in 2003 According to the analysis of the current situation, the export of corn in 2003 can continue to maintain the level of 10 million tons or even more At present, China is the second largest corn exporter in the world With the reduction of corn production and the decrease of corn inventory in the United States, China's corn export will maintain a high level, which will reduce the rising space of corn price in the international market However, as the newly added domestic supply in that year is larger than the domestic consumption in that year, the export of corn will not change the basic pattern of domestic oversupply In the future, there are still many uncertain factors, such as the export policy, the change of corn price in the international market, the transportation capacity of railway, etc Due to the combination of rising and falling factors, it is expected that the main players will be oscillatory 7ts (3) rice price is expected to go out of the trough, showing a rising trend In the future, 7ts rice price will not only promote its rise, but also inhibit its price rise But overall, this winter and next spring prices are expected to go out of the trough, showing a rising trend, but affected by many inhibiting factors, the space for rising is very limited 7ts is the main factor to promote the price rise First, there is a decrease in supply The newly added supply in the current year can not meet the demand of the current year, thus driving up the price Second, the current rice price is close to the production cost, which to some extent curbs the continuous decline of rice price Third, at the end of 2002, the state carried out a nationwide rectification of the rice market, which was conducive to the rise of the rice market The main factors for 7ts to restrain the price rise are: first, the overall supply is greater than the demand, which restrains the price rise In addition, the treatment of aged grain and the promotion of aged grain have played a certain role in restraining the price rise Second, the decline in the number of exports, to some extent, also curbed the price rise Based on this, 7ts suggested that all branches should increase their support for the purchase and sale of grain such as red wheat, corn and early indica rice Northeast China should actively support enterprises to manage soybeans, so as to promote enterprises to invigorate management and improve efficiency 7tS