Market forecast of rapeseed in 2003

Introduction: 1 Review of the trend of rapeseed in 2002 JHW 1 International aspect: in 2002, Australia and Canada, the world's major rapeseed producing countries, suffered from the impact of drought and climate that never happened in a hundred years, the production of rapeseed decreased significantly, and other major rapeseed producing countries also reduced their production to different degrees The global total production decreased from 36.4 million tons to 3160 tons About 10000 tons, a decrease of 13% Jhw2 Domestic aspect: in 2002, the sown area of rapeseed increased by 1.4% However, due to the late period of rapeseed production, continuous rainy weather, the rapeseed production in Anhui, Hubei, Jiangsu and other places decreased significantly, about 10% less than the previous year JHW 3 Import and export: due to the reduction of rapeseed production worldwide, especially the sharp reduction of domestic rapeseed production under the condition that most people expect to increase production, the contradiction between supply and demand is sharp, the international market is tight and the price is rising The domestic market has increased from 0.85 yuan / Jin at the beginning of acquisition to 1.15 yuan / jin at the end of acquisition, and up to 1.25 yuan / Jin after the acquisition of rapeseed in autumn In order to make up for the shortage of domestic rapeseed, 618000 tons of imported rapeseed and 768500 tons of imported rapeseed were imported in the whole year, which is equivalent to 2.54 million tons of rapeseed JHW II Analysis of the rapeseed market in 2003 JHW according to the international data report, the global rapeseed output in 2003 will be further reduced, with an estimated output of 32.94 million tons and a gap of 3.9 million tons, which will promote the price of rapeseed in the international market to hover at a high level In 2003, due to the increase of planting area and improvement of varieties, the total output of rapeseed in China is expected to reach 13 million tons, about 25% higher than that of last year After China's accession to WTO, the oil market in China is increasingly affected by the international influence It is estimated that the oil market in 2003 will not have a significant downward space under the premise of domestic production increase JHW 3 The main factors affecting the domestic oil market: JHW 1 Increase the production of domestic rapeseed The production increase of nearly 3 million tons will effectively alleviate the contradiction of domestic raw material supply, ensure the effective supply of domestic oil, and make the price of domestic oil stable in a certain period of time It is expected that the oil price will fall after the rapeseed is listed in summer JHW 2, the increase of import soybean In 2003, China is expected to import more than 12.5 million tons of soybeans from the United States and South America, an increase of 1.34 million tons over the previous year, equivalent to 240000 tons of imported soyoil JHW 3 Increase of import quota In 2003, China's quota of imported grease was further increased Jhw4 The improvement of domestic consumption level and the increase of consumption JHW IV forecast of purchasing price of rapeseed in summer of 2003 At present, the price of rapeseed in each rapeseed producing area of JHW is between 6000-6100 yuan / ton, and that in some areas is as high as 6200 yuan / ton, nearly 3 days before the new rapeseed is listed on the market In the last six months, the oil source is more tense in the later period Although the consumption is in the off-season, the total demand is still large compared with the inventory of each manufacturer If the oil is not sold in the later period, the oil price will rise steadily The higher oil price in the early stage will affect the purchase price level of rapeseed in summer It is expected that the purchase price of rapeseed in summer will be between 1.00-1.05 yuan, and may be between 1.15-1.20 yuan in the later stage JhW