Market evaluation of feed raw materials in the fourth quarter of 2004

Introduction: in the first three quarters of 2004, the feed raw material market fluctuated, plus avian influenza, overload control, US prawn anti-dumping case, and the lifting of EU's ban on poultry in Asia In recent years, the feed and related aquaculture industry presents a rare scene of excitement Now the feed and feed raw material market in the fourth quarter of 2004 is simply evaluated The price of soybean is still controlled by the market of major oil plants The fluctuation of the price depends on the face of oil plants Although American soybeans still play a role of stabilizing prices, they still can't catch up with the pace of market demand, as exemplified by the recent sharp rebound in soybean prices Therefore, although the soybean price is uncertain, the short-term and long-term trend will show a solid upward trend Soybean meal is driven by the tight supply of the whole soybean market, and the soybean meal market is also much better The pig market is booming, the price is optimistic for a long time, and the farmers are eager to supplement the market, which will undoubtedly stimulate the soybean meal market directly Similar to soybean market, soybean meal will show an upward trend before winter, or even a rapid rise in the short term However, it should be noted that the impact of seasonal zero feed demand in the aquatic product market in the fourth quarter on the soybean meal market, as well as the decline in the price of fish meal, slowed down the demand for soybean meal to replace fish meal From the above analysis, in previous years, after the decline of demand for aquatic feed, the situation of soybean meal price decline may change this year In the fourth quarter of this year, soybean meal market will rise slightly in the long term and fluctuate in the short term The bull market of fishmeal and fishmeal is over, and the price begins to cool down The price decline of each port is about 400 yuan / ton The price in some areas fell to 6000 yuan / ton With the overall opening of domestic sea areas and the decrease of demand for aquatic feed, the 2004 bull market of fish meal will end in this quarter, and the price will gradually decrease As a supporting role of fish meal and soybean meal, miscellaneous meal has increased by different ranges compared with last year, among which rapeseed meal has increased by nearly 300 yuan / ton In general, the price of miscellaneous meal will be stable in the fourth quarter Cottonseed meal prices are expected to fluctuate with cotton harvest and poultry stocks The fluctuation range is mainly determined by the risk tolerance psychology of poultry households after winter As a bulk raw material in feed, corn is greatly affected by "super control" However, with the impact of new corn listing in different regions, corn prices in the North began to fall, and the price change in the South would slow down due to traffic impact With the increase of green and yellow fodder in autumn, the demand for corn and grain will decrease in the short term In the long-term view, corn will return to a more stable price with the increase of acquisition, and there is no possibility of long-term decline Although the price of amino acid lysine is still high, but the traces of human operation are heavy, and the amount of use is limited, it will not have a direct impact on the feed price From the analysis of feed overall situation, feed sales have been closed this year, and enterprises are going up or down for final adjustment In terms of the overall situation, the feed price has risen in the whole line this year: compared with the same period last year, the price of aquatic compound feed has increased by 200-400 yuan / ton, shrimp feed by 500-600 yuan / ton, and concentrated feed for livestock and poultry by 200-300 yuan / ton The price of compound feed for livestock and poultry has not changed much Editor of China Fisheries net