Market effect of the extension of genetically modified regulation

Introduction: China's Ministry of agriculture has recently extended the genetically modified regulations The introduction of this measure means that the situation of the oil market in the second half of the year in China has been very clear It is entirely possible to divide the domestic oil and cake market into two stages in the season of domestic autumn oil listing In particular, oil trading enterprises must arrange their own purchase, production and operation plans within this framework In this regard, the author mainly talks about a few points Yu7 first, the introduction of this policy means that American new beans can enter the Chinese market smoothly According to the report of the U.S Department of agriculture and the domestic market information, Chinese importers do start this work According to a July 17 report from the U.S Department of agriculture, China has signed a total of 1.18 million tons of U.S soybean contracts for the new year, about 20 ships This is a relatively high number of signings in recent years At the same time, according to the import performance in the first half of the year and the rapid development of domestic large-scale oil processing enterprises, China's pressing demand for oil soybeans has been maintained at the level of more than 2 million tons per month In the first half of the year, according to customs statistics, China has imported 10.15 million tons of soybeans ashore, with an average monthly import of 1.7 million tons The average monthly import volume in three, four, five and six months is about 2 million tons The problem of overstock in the domestic market is not serious, which can basically prove the above point The author predicts that if there is no big problem in the policy level (restricting the soybean import of the United States, the possibility is almost zero), after November, the arrival volume of China's imported soybeans will certainly remain at the level of more than 1.5 million tons If considering the arrival of some imported soyoil, the imported products will account for half of the domestic market supply in the domestic oil market dominated by soybeans and related products The domestic oil and cake market and the international oil and cake market are changing simultaneously Yu7 second, some figures in the USDA's monthly report and oilseed outlook predict the global oil market situation in 2003 / 04, which is basically a downward trend After the report was issued, the trend of Chicago market basically verified this point Yu7 according to the report of the US Department of agriculture, in 2003 / 04, the total output of oil seeds in the world was 352 million tons, with an increase of 25 million tons Among them, soybean output is 207 million tons, increasing by 12 million tons; cottonseed output is 36.06 million tons, increasing by 3.23 million tons, increasing by 1.5 million tons in China; peanut output is 32.49 million tons, increasing by 1.91 million tons; sunflower seed output is 26.15 million tons, increasing by 2.24 million tons; rapeseed output is 36.53 million tons, increasing by 4.81 million tons In the year of yu7 03 / 04, the world's oil seed crushing volume reached 287 million tons, an increase of 18 million tons Among them, 175 million tons of soybeans were pressed, an increase of 9 million tons; 27.15 million tons of cottonseed, an increase of 2.67 million tons; 15.08 million tons of peanut, an increase of 1.02 million tons; 22.52 million tons of sunflower seeds, an increase of 1.96 million tons; 33.65 million tons of rapeseed, an increase of 2.83 million tons In 2003 / 04, the global oil seed transfer inventory was 43.42 million tons, an increase of 5.22 million tons Among them, the soybean inventory is 39.8 million tons, an increase of 4.92 million tons The increase of soybean inventory accounts for almost all the increase of oil seed inventory Cottonseed inventory was 440000 tons, down 10000 tons; peanut inventory was 490000 tons, down 60000 tons; sunflower seed inventory was 850000 tons, up 100000 tons; rapeseed inventory was 1680000 tons, up 260000 tons Yu7 the author believes that these changes basically reflect the trend of the international oil market in 2003 / 04 Although there are still some uncertain factors, the downward trend is the inevitable result In particular, the U.S soybean inventory has been restored to 7.07 million tons, Brazil's soybean inventory will be close to 15 million tons, and Argentina's soybean inventory will be 1170 High inventory reflects the increasing pressure of market supply If the weather in the United States is basically normal in a period of time in the future, the global soybean supply pressure can be imagined after the new soybean in the United States is listed The cost of imported soybeans and the current situation must have a significant decline As the author analyzed in the first point, the changes in the domestic market will also decline YU7 Third, the introduction of the policy means that new safety and inspection and quarantine certificates are needed for domestic soybean import after September 20 According to the requirements of the Bureau of animal and plant inspection and quarantine for 30 working days on taking the certificate first and signing the contract, and combining with the actual difficulty of domestic import to ship unloading in the first half of the year, it can be inferred that at that time, the quantity of domestic imported soybeans will appear a large margin At present, domestic speculation about the decline of imported soybeans in September and October is not unreasonable I understand that China's recent actions in the overseas market are basically based on the purchase of new beans from the United States The number of contracts signed in August is not large, and foreign investors' quotations are not active, which can further prove such a fact What's more, there are problems with Brazil's certificates Try to imagine that if we can't get the certificate for the Brazilian beans that arrived in September in our country, and only Argentina is the main market, the market result will be anything In light of the fact that the domestic consumption capacity has been improved, the author predicts that after the decline of new imported soybeans in September, the domestic supply will inevitably have a market fluctuation in the period when the domestic supply is out of date Yu7 is the fourth, but for the market volatility I expect, there is also a negative factor is the domestic selling of 800000 tons of soybeans This will undoubtedly alleviate the current situation of domestic soybean supply shortage and reduce the market gap The author believes that traders can have a good idea of the domestic market before October as long as they pay attention to the following two points First, the quantity of auctions in China tends to produce moisture If the actual market supply drops at that time, it will support the domestic market Second, the transaction price of the auction This issue directly determines the bottom of the later stage From the current market price of oil and meal, as well as the port price of imported soybeans, the auction price will not be too low Because soybean comes from Northeast China, we can use the price of oil and meal in Northeast China as reference Soybean oil: 6100 yuan / ton; soybean meal: 2100 yuan / ton; the acceptable price of domestic soybean in Northeast oil plant is 2556 yuan / ton based on the processing fee of 100 yuan / ton For Guannei oil plant, the price of imported soybeans is 2600 yuan / ton (port price of imported soybeans plus 50 yuan / ton freight) based on the current port price quotation of 2650 yuan / ton and the price difference of 100 yuan / ton Yu7 therefore, the author suggests that in the future, businesses should have a clear understanding of the domestic market, a clear judgment of the general trend in 2003 / 04, and a reasonable division of the domestic market in combination with the national policy situation YU7