Market analysis of soybean and soybean meal

Introduction: ▲ the regulations on the safety management of agricultural genetically modified organisms have a great impact on China's soybean market After the State Council issued the regulations on the safety management of agricultural genetically modified organisms on June 6, China's soybean market has been greatly affected The price of domestic soybean futures is up and down, and the price of imported soybean on spot has been suspended For this reason, the reporter interviewed the relevant persons in agriculture, grain trade and other aspects They believed that although the relevant implementation rules of the regulations have not yet been issued, the impact on soybean import and processing will be far-reaching It is understood that at present, China's production of non transgenic soybeans, imported soybeans are mainly transgenic soybeans In the last year, China's soybean output was 15.41 million tons, and the import volume in the same period reached 10.41 million tons, of which 5.41 million tons were imported from the United States; up to now, China has imported 5.72 million tons of soybeans The U.S Department of Agriculture reported in March that 63% of Soybeans Planted in the United States in 2001 were "biotech" soybeans, up from 54% last year China's soybean imports from Argentina and Brazil are second only to those from the United States, with 2.78 million tons and 2.11 million tons respectively in the previous year Argentina is also a country with a large number of genetically modified soybeans Although Brazil says it does not produce genetically modified soybeans, it has already produced them in its southern provinces It is said that there are very few soybeans that are definitely non GM soybeans in China This year, only 20.15 million tons of soybeans imported from Brazil are non GM soybeans Therefore, it can be said that at present, genetically modified soybeans have a large share in the domestic soybean market The implementation of the regulations on the safety management of agricultural genetically modified soybeans will undoubtedly have many impacts on the domestic soybean market, especially on soybean imports First, it will lead to cumbersome import procedures and increase the cost of soybean import, thus affecting the import price Article 38 of the Regulations stipulates that "the imported agricultural genetically modified organisms without the safety certificate and relevant documents of agricultural genetically modified organisms issued by the agricultural administrative department of the State Council, or inconsistent with the certificates and approval documents, shall be returned or destroyed If the imported agricultural genetically modified organisms are not marked according to the regulations, they can enter the country only after being re marked " Because most of the soybeans imported from the United States and Argentina are genetically modified soybeans, the soybean exporters from the United States and Argentina must obtain the biosafety certificate of genetically modified soybeans before they can export genetically modified soybeans to China, which will inevitably increase their market risks and costs: first, the first time to obtain the certificate and related documents will take a long time, which is not good for grasping the market opportunity; second, the The production, harvesting, acquisition, warehousing, transportation, shipment and other links need special supervision, and the cost will inevitably increase Some predict that the cost will increase by 10% - 15%, some even predict that it will increase by 20% China's soybean gap is large, if the price is not appropriate to reduce imports, it will intensify the domestic supply and demand contradictions Second, widen the price difference between genetically modified and non genetically modified soybeans Article 28 of the Regulations stipulates that "the sale of agricultural genetically modified organisms listed in the catalogue of agricultural genetically modified organisms within the territory of the people's Republic of China shall be clearly marked." It is a kind of risk disclosure system to implement compulsory marking system in every link of market circulation of genetically modified agricultural products At the same time, the regulations also have restrictive provisions on the advertisements of genetically modified agricultural products From the foreign situation, this will have a restraining effect on the market demand of genetically modified products to a large extent, and then affect the production, processing, import and sales of genetically modified products Although the understanding of genetically modified organisms and non genetically modified organisms in China's consumer groups is not very clear, with the differentiation of social consumer groups and the increasing awareness of the safety of genetically modified products, it will affect consumers' consumption tendency, change the consumption proportion structure of general agricultural products and genetically modified agricultural products, and the final result of substitution effect will affect genetically modified products and non genetically modified agricultural products Due to the relative market price of products, this has a particularly prominent impact on the food processing industry (soybean oil or soybean oil using enterprises) Third, there is more room for policy adjustment and control on soybean import, and the flexibility of import control is enhanced Article 36 of the Regulations stipulates that "the competent agricultural administrative department of the State Council and the state entry exit inspection and quarantine department shall make a decision of approval or disapproval within 270 days from the date of receiving the application from the applicant and notify the applicant." Experts have analyzed that the problem of genetically modified organisms has a long history, but the harm of genetically modified organisms to society has not been confirmed Because of this, different countries have different views on it and different policies Because the countries that oppose the GM issue formulate import restriction policies, which belong to one country's security issues, and do not conflict with the WTO rules, the countries that are excluded have to agree It can be seen that the implementation of the regulations will increase the policy scope of China's import regulation of agricultural products with a large proportion of genetically modified soybeans ▲ soybean meal market price will rise in the second half of this year According to the prediction of the State Grain and oil information center, the situation of oversupply in China's soybean meal market is gradually changing It is expected that the degree of oversupply in the soybean meal market in the second half of this year will tend to decrease, and then the price will rise to a certain extent According to the latest calculation of the center, the output of soybean meal in 2000 / 2001 in China will be about 15.16 million tons, and the total consumption of soybean meal will reach 14.35 million tons Although the situation of oversupply in soybean meal market is certain, the scope of oversupply is not too large Although there is still room for soybean meal price to fall in the future, the falling time will not last for a long time The total output of soybean meal in 2001 / 2002 is expected to be 14.51 million tons, and the total consumption is expected to reach 15.88 million tons, among which the consumption of soybean meal for feeding is expected to reach 14.5 million tons Although the change of the relationship between production and demand does not mean the fundamental change of the relationship between supply and demand due to the large storage of soybean meal, it is expected that the oversupply of domestic soybean meal market will tend to decrease from the late 2000 / 2001 Once the total output of domestic soybean meal is lower than the total consumption, the price of soybean meal will rebound When the feed industry and breeding industry realize this, the purchase of soybean meal will immediately increase and the price will start to rebound According to the centre, this situation is likely to occur in the late 2000 / 2001, that is, this autumn As the growth of soybean meal production in 2000 / 2001 mainly occurred in the first half of 2001, the output of soybean meal in the second half of 2001 will tend to decline due to the decrease of import soybean to Hong Kong, so as long as the consumption of soybean meal increased in the second half of this year, the price of soybean meal is likely to rebound significantly For the price trend of soybean meal market in China in the short term, the prediction Department of the State Grain and Oil Information Center believes that the price of soybean meal will reach a relative bottom in June, and then it will be stable for a period of time First of all, the arrival peak of imported soybeans is from April to June After entering July, the number of imported soybeans will gradually decrease, so the pressure on soybean meal price will gradually ease when a large number of imported soybeans arrive in Hong Kong Secondly, although the overall situation of domestic breeding industry and feed industry is still depressed from January to April this year, it is the peak of feed soybean meal consumption after May In addition, the falling soybean meal price will also stimulate the growth of its consumption Soybean meal consumption is expected to be higher in the second half than in the first half At the same time, due to the earlier arrival peak of imported soybeans this year, the import volume in the second half of the year will be less than that in the first half of the year, so the soybean meal output will be reduced after July (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: