Market analysis of meat, poultry and eggs in the second half of the year (6.29)

In the first quarter of this year, a total of 10.276 million tons of pigs, cattle, sheep, poultry and fresh eggs were traded in the national urban and rural markets, up from 815 in the same period last year 90000 tons increased by 2117000 tons, an increase of 16.6% This is the fourth consecutive year that the growth of trading volume is far greater than that of meat, poultry and egg production The current consumption of meat, poultry and egg products can be summarized as follows: farmers want to eat more, but their purchasing power is not enough; urban residents have conditions, but do not want to eat more As a result, the buyer's market of meat, poultry and egg products is slowly warming up After two years of continuous decline in the price of pigs (including a slight recovery in a short period of time), the price of pigs and public wrists has been reduced; the price of fresh eggs has also fallen to the level of 10 years ago We are concerned that the production clock will fall in the future and the market will not be tense Now make a rough analysis: first, from the perspective of production status: according to the National Bureau of internal trade's typical survey of 10 key pig production areas in China at the end of February, there are 182.7 million live pigs in Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, Sichuan, Hunan, Shaanxi and Chongqing, down 3.42% year-on-year; 14.15 million live pigs in male and female, down 2.49% year-on-year The author thinks that it's not a bad thing for the stock to decline properly Under the buyer's market conditions, the price of pigs can be kept stable, so as not to enter into the market more easily The price of pigs is higher than 7.75%, not only many, but also a little more Through the improvement of the connotation production capacity, the future strength of the pig industry is very substantial The stocks of cattle, sheep and poultry are all stable and rising slightly, with an excellent trend 2、 From the price comparison of pigs, cattle, sheep and poultry to corn: According to the statistics of 30 provinces, cities and districts in China, in March, the average purchase price of live pig was 5.67 yuan per kilogram, the retail price of beef was 13.7 yuan, the price of mutton was 15.9 yuan, the price of live chicken was 9.85 yuan, the price of eggs was 5.52 yuan, and the price of corn was 0.94 yuan per kilogram The above-mentioned prices of live pig, beef, mutton, live chicken, eggs and corn reached 6.03 and 13 respectively 7 15.9, 9.85:552, are all at a profitable price for the breeders If the pigs are fed with old corn and early rice, the profits will be more substantial According to local reports, at present, farmers can get 50% of a pig 100 yuan, which is very attractive in the underdeveloped areas of agriculture and sideline industry, and the pig industry has begun to heat up in varying degrees 3、 From the perspective of policy adoption, the opinions on doing well in agricultural and rural work in 2000 formulated by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on January 16 this year emphasizes that the development of animal husbandry should be raised to a new height The provinces have reached a consensus on stabilizing the number of pigs raised and focusing on improving the quality Jilin Province focuses on improving livestock and poultry varieties, developing high-quality animal husbandry, increasing the proportion of ternary hybrid pigs and improving beef cattle; Hubei province adjusts the structure of animal husbandry, makes use of abundant Caoshan resources, and focuses on the breakthrough development of cattle and sheep production; Zhejiang Province has issued a series of measures to encourage the development of animal husbandry; in 1999, the output value of sheep industry in Jiangsu Province has reached 2.52 billion yuan, accounting for the whole province 30% of the output value of animal husbandry Taking advantage of the breed advantages of local Xuhuai goat, Haimen goat and Hu sheep, and promoting the crossbreeding improvement of Boer goat, the province has bred more than 400000 crossbreeding sheep, which has increased the income of farmers by more than 40 million yuan This year, Shuba sheep industry is still the focus of animal husbandry development; Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Anhui and Hei provinces take the development of high-quality beef cattle as the rural economic promotion Important measures for economic development 4、 From the perspective of the transaction price of meat and egg commodities: the transaction price of national level Chengdu meat market, frozen white pork from 7700 tons at the beginning of the year to 7350 yuan at the beginning of May, with a small decrease; the price of domestic split pork is more than 10000 yuan, no change From the beginning of the year to May 8, the price of beef roll and mutton roll in the regional meat wholesale market in Gansu Province has been stable at 11000 yuan and 12800 yuan per ton In the first quarter, the mixed weighted average price of pork, cattle, sheep, poultry and fresh eggs in the national urban and rural market was 10.35 yuan per kilogram, down 6.8% from 11.11 yuan in the same period of last year The price decline of meat, poultry and egg products is smaller than that of aquatic products and fruits 5、 Market oriented, improved varieties, and adjusted the structure of livestock and poultry At present, it is necessary to reduce the number of fat type pigs and increase the number of three-way crossbreeding and the breeding of matching line lean meat type pigs; the market of native broilers and native eggs needs to be vigorous; the fattening beef and mutton are suitable for barbecue and brush eating, and the market is optimistic; the young geese and lean duck, the barbecue industry needs to increase day by day; the marketable special livestock and poultry also need to be properly developed Recently, the author has heard a lot of reports that the meat of lean pork is not fragrant Generally speaking, the leaner the lean pigs are, the less fat they have in their muscles, the worse their taste will be? Based on the above, the market of meat, poultry and egg products in the second half of this year and the spring will be more colorful and more marketable due to the steady development of production, but the small growth rate, structural adjustment and variety improvement And the spending on meat from urban and rural purchasing power is still weak With the increase of the share of cold meat sold by supermarkets and chain stores, the open-air market in large and medium-sized cities is gradually changed to indoor business, and the quality of meat and shopping environment will continue to improve and beautify, which is exactly what our country should ship ij after joining wro In terms of price, the price jump of noon meat, poultry meat and fresh eggs is basically stable, and they can fall slightly in the peak season of listing; the price of mutton is still stable, and it may rise slightly in the peak season of consumption; the price of pork is stable due to the steady development of production, but it tends to be stable and slightly decreased in the areas with large lung and developed economy, and the price reduction in the peak season of listing in the fourth quarter will be slightly larger than that of other meat products China feed industry information network WGT (author:)