Market analysis of animal husbandry economy

Introduction: first, it is expected that the export of frozen chicken products from China will increase in the near future Recently, Japan has announced to stop importing American chicken As a result, the price of imported chicken in the Japanese market has been on the rise recently It's up 20% from last week Meanwhile, Chinese and Brazilian chicken prices in Japan have risen by 10% I believe that in the near future, China's segmented chicken (chicken breast, etc.) exports to Japan will increase The main reasons are as follows: 1 Japanese chicken imports from the United States accounted for about 15% of its imports By the end of October 2001, Japanese domestic chicken stock was about 65000 tons, down 40% from the same period last year If Japan stops importing chicken from the United States for a long time, the wholesale price may continue to rise in the future 2 At present, there is still a price advantage in the segmentation of frozen chicken in China The ex factory price of chicken breast meat (chicken kebab) is 2409 US dollars / ton, which is lower than about 10-18% in the United States NXS 3 Some large foreign trade enterprises in China and the government strengthened quarantine, and Japan began to import some chicken again, but it still rejected the export of broilers from Hebei, Heilongjiang and other provinces NXS in April and October, the production of cooked chicken in domestic broiler enterprises increased, and the export volume was larger than that in the same period of September For example, the third factory, the fourth factory, Zhucheng and other enterprises of a meat and poultry group company in Shanghai have increased the output of processed cooked chicken and reduced the total amount of live chicken breeding NXS 5 At present, there is no official news in China that a ban on the by-products of broilers imported from the United States and Taiwan to China is proposed However, at present, the efforts to crack down on the smuggling of imported chicken by-products in Panyu, Guangdong Province have increased significantly From January to September 2001, China imported 300000 tons of frozen chicken offal from the United States; it is estimated that the actual quantity of frozen chicken smuggled into China is more than 600000 tons NXS II After China's accession to the WTO, NXS has been increased to large-scale feed enterprises engaged in deep processing of meat It is reported that in 2000, the top 20 large-scale feed enterprises in China accounted for about 30% of the total annual feed output of the country As the price of feed raw materials continued to rise in 2001, it was difficult for feed industry to operate in the first three quarters, and the benefit was generally lower than that in 2000 According to the author's recent understanding, feed enterprises are generally optimistic about the food deep processing industry in the near future It is expected that after December, some feed enterprises will turn to animal products processing or expand the original production scale The main reasons are as follows: NXS l In 2001, feed enterprises generally made little profit, and it was difficult for medium-sized feed enterprises with a scale of about 10 tons / hour to operate and use The number of them was about 1000, accounting for about 20% of feed enterprises that could produce normally In order to survive, some enterprises turn to small meat enterprises NXS 2 China's large-scale feed enterprises will gradually form an industrial chain of planting, breeding and processing, and the scale of meat investment will gradually expand After China's accession to the WTO, foreign cooperation will be used to expand the deep processing and production of meat For example, Sichuan hope group hopes that the meat company will expand production and slaughter 1500 head / day by the end of the year; Hunan TangRenShen group produces 22000 tons of cooked meat, etc NXS 3 After China's accession to the WTO, the per capita consumption of cooked meat in urban areas has increased At present, the output of meat processing in China is less than 5% of the total output of meat, and more than 1 / 3 of them are cooked low-quality sausage At present, the consumption of cooked meat in large cities has gradually decreased, while the consumption of high-quality meat has increased year by year NXS 4 At present, there are basically no national brands for cooked meat food, most of which are limited to the regional market of the province Such as Henan Shuanghui, Jinluo, Chundu, Shandong Jinluo, Shandong Jiangquan, etc The quantity of ham sausage produced in Henan and Shandong Province accounts for about 92% of the total output of the country; the output of Henan Province is 430000-460000 tons, accounting for about 57% of the total output NXS 3 Analysis of the reasons for the loss of foreign-invested meat enterprises NXS recently learned that the total number of foreign-invested enterprise projects in China has declined, but the actual amount of foreign investment has continued to grow, and the average investment scale of foreign-invested enterprises has expanded year by year In 2000, about 243 meat enterprises were invested by foreign investors From 1996 to 1999, about 35% of the foreign-invested meat enterprises in China made a loss, and about 50% of them only made a small profit In my opinion, the main reasons for the loss of foreign-invested meat industry enterprises are as follows: NXS L foreign-invested enterprises invest too much in the equipment of meat slaughtering and processing, while the utilization rate of the equipment is low There is little investment in the upstream industry of agriculture and animal husbandry, lack of stable supply of goods and stable industrial chain NXS 2 More than 90% of the meat products produced are Western-style meat products, which are not suitable for urban ordinary consumers The quality requirements of raw materials and production process are high and the loss is large Such as Beijing Hormel food company NXS 3 Although animal husbandry and meat industry are the industries encouraged by the state, they are not reflected in specific policies at present At present, the policies are basically the same as general manufacturing investment The market-oriented system of meat products circulation is not perfect, mainly including storage, transportation, refrigeration, etc., which is mainly concentrated in state-owned commercial enterprises, and the intermediate cost of foreign meat circulation is increased NXS 4 Some foreign-invested enterprises deliberately increased their losses in the joint venture stage in order to achieve holding; then they increased their capital investment and gradually controlled the whole meat processing company NXS 5 China's meat products have huge consumption potential In order to occupy the meat market in the future, foreign enterprises only want to expand their market share in the early stage For example, the market share of Homer's brand has increased to 8%, but Beijing and Shanghai are still losing money NXS IV at the beginning of 2002, the import of frozen chicken products increased rapidly Recently, the price of white chicken in 36 large and medium-sized cities in China was $1.15/kg, slightly higher than last week, but basically the same as the same period in 2000 At the same time, the national average price of live chicken rose $1.155/kg Recently, the prices of wings, thighs, etc of frozen broilers in supermarkets in large and medium-sized cities have dropped by 8-10% compared with the same period in October At present, the prices are about US $1.90/kg The author believes that with the promise of tariff reduction and the increase of China's demand after China's accession to the WTO, more imports of low-cost frozen chicken by-products will increase steadily NXS L after China's accession to the WTO, the tariff of frozen chicken products will be reduced, and the proliferation tax for chicken by-products will be gradually reduced or even automatically abolished NXS 2 The price of imported frozen chicken and its products is lower than 10-30% in China NXS 3 Cooked meat processing enterprises need to import low-cost frozen chicken and segmented products Domestic demand for cooked poultry products is increasing, and the profit of deep processing is higher than that of primary processing At the same time, foreign enterprises have invested in cooked meat processing enterprises The main reason is that the labor cost in China is about 1 / 7 of that in the United States, and the cost of deep processing of poultry meat is low After deep processing, it can be sold to other countries NXS 4 Domestic consumption of poultry meat and its products increased steadily The proportion of poultry consumption increased from 1995 to 2000 The consumption of processed meat and poultry products in cities is increasing rapidly, and it is expected that the consumption of processed meat and poultry products in China will increase rapidly in 2002 NXS v in the near future, the Chinese government will increase its investment in animal husbandry NXS In the near future, the State Council will forward the opinions of the Ministry of agriculture on accelerating the development of animal husbandry, and at the same time require the relevant departments of the country to implement them The main contents of animal husbandry include NXS L, transforming animal husbandry into grain and other by-products, and increasing farmers' income It is planned to use 5-10 years to realize the transformation from animal husbandry to intensive management NXS 2 It is clear that the adjustment of animal husbandry structure is to stabilize the development of pig and egg production, speed up the production of beef cattle, sheep and poultry, and give priority to the production of dairy cattle and fine wool sheep NXS 3 Support a number of large-scale animal product processing enterprises It mainly focuses on the development of chilled meat and meat segmentation NXS 4 Increase the loan for animal husbandry, and at the same time, accelerate the construction of breeding communities suitable for Chinese characteristics NXS the author believes that at present, the government's policy and encouragement for the development of animal husbandry may have the following purposes: in 2001, the farmers had a good harvest of grain, but the farmers did not increase their income The main purpose of the policy is to make the farmers consciously transform their surplus stock of grain Reduce the pressure on food prices to fall after China's accession to the WTO The purpose of this paper is to make preparations for the subsidies for the enterprises in the animal husbandry industry after China's accession to the WTO Encourage enterprises to develop into leading enterprises of animal products in the market and give priority to support It is estimated that the leading animal husbandry industry of 7 ministries and commissions currently announced will be the main support object In the future, farmers will be encouraged to produce livestock products in the form of breeding communities At present, the development of animal husbandry in China only has quantity but no quality, and 50% of animal products are only obtained by small-scale and scattered farming NXS VI the output of Chinese ham and sausage enterprises has been relatively concentrated Recently, according to the statistics of the national key large department stores by the national business information center, in the ham sausage Market, Henan Shuanghui has the first market share of 29.6%, while Jiangsu Nanjing Yurun still has the second market share of 16%, and their market share has remained at about 50% for two years Shandong delis group ranks third NXS the author thinks that at present, Chinese ham and sausage enterprises are mainly regional consumption, and there are few meat enterprises with national brand Because of the surplus production lines of ham and sausage enterprises, the production of national (cooking) ham and sausage enterprises will be relatively concentrated in 20 meat group enterprises In 2001, the consumption of ham and sausage in China was still in a fierce competition Among them, the production of ham in Henan Province and Shandong Province accounts for about 92% of the total output of the country; the production of ham in Henan Province is 350000-380000 tons, accounting for about 57% of the total output It is estimated that in 2002, the production of ham and sausage in the top ten meat enterprises will still account for more than 90% of the national total NXS western style meat products are the main kinds of meat processing products in China In 2001, ham sausage was also the most popular meat product It is estimated that the annual output of ham sausage will be more than 800000 tons, with an output value of US $1 billion, accounting for about 1 / 3 of the national meat product output There are more than 500 ham sausage production lines, including 80-120 in Shuanghui, Jinluo, Chundu, Jinluo and Jiangquan, respectively, and 10-30 in Zhengrong, Tongfeng, Yurun, Daqing and Pengcheng The rest are small businesses with only a few production lines NXS 7 China's accession to the WTO will promote the circulation of feed corn from south to north Since the recent centralized listing of corn in North China, the purchase price has been falling again and again, and the purchase volume of grain storage and collection departments is more cautious than last year In Northeast China, the centralized purchase was delayed and the corn grade was improved The price of corn actually purchased by farmers decreased At present, the overall average purchase price of corn in North China is basically at the level of the first ten days of November, and some areas have slipped Some scholars believe that after China's accession to the WTO, the import of grain from the South will increase, but the export of grain from the north to Japan, South Korea and Russia will increase; the circulation of grain will gradually develop from the current "transfer of grain from the north to the South" to "import grain from the south to the north" The author believes that the circulation of grain (corn) will change as follows: NXS L after China's accession to the WTO, the export of corn is very limited, and the quantity in 2002 will not be greater than that in 2001 NXS 2 As long as the annual output of corn in China is no less than 105 million tons, it is estimated that the quota of imported corn in 2002 will be 5.695 million tons Even if it is completed, the quantity only accounts for 0.5% of the national output, which has little impact on the whole country NXS 3 The cost of domestic grain production basically increased at a rate of about 1%, and the number of national grain purchases continued to decrease in 2002 NXS 4 The circulation of feed corn has gradually changed from the trade of state-owned enterprises in the north to the south, to the demand oriented individual and private management of corn