Market analysis and Prospect of methionine and lysine at home and abroad

Introduction: new page 1 sun Zhiqiang (Information Center of China Feed Industry Association) k2z In recent years, the world feed additive market has grown rapidly and is expected to grow further in the future According to the initiative of the world food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) leaders' meeting, by 2015, the world's malnourished population will be cut by half During this period, the growth of meat products will be 2% per year, especially the growth of pork and poultry This will increase the world demand for additives, especially methionine and lysine K2z I world feed methionine: the production capacity is constantly increasing K2z methionine is a limiting amino acid in poultry nutrition, with an annual demand of 460000-500000 tons in the world The annual growth rate of k2z world feed methionine market is 1% - 3% In Europe, Japan and South Korea, the methionine market has become increasingly saturated, while in Asia and South America, the market is gradually developing The production capacity of k2z methionine in the world is expected to be over 680000 T / year, which is higher than the total demand K2z digosa (Germany) is the world's largest producer of feed grade methionine Due to the rapid growth of methionine demand, it is necessary to maintain the balance of supply and demand in the future market Digosa, as well as andissu, novas and Japan's Caota, Ajinomoto and Nippon Kayaku, are planning or adjusting their strategies to focus on the methionine market However, under this expansion plan, the methionine market is still sluggish, which is the result of fierce competition among major companies for global market share In Asia, methionine sometimes costs less than $2 / kg While implementing the expansion plan, digosa is also considering how to reduce costs in the current depressed market to maintain its leading position In recent years, the trend of methionine price in the world has a certain amplitude, and the European market price is basically between 2-3 euro / kg Figure 11995-2002 European methionine market price trend figure k2z World feed lysine: the global demand is growing rapidly It is expected to reach 850000t k2z in 2005 In the 1990s, the lysine market has maintained a rapid growth rate of 7% - 8% per year At present, the global demand is about 600000t / year It is estimated that it will reach 850000 T / A in 200 years K2z in 2001, the total production capacity of lysine in the world was 710000 T / A, ADM (USA) is the largest feed level lysine producer in the world, and other major producers include Ajinomoto (Japan), CJ (Indonesia), BASF, Concorde fermentation (Japan) and digosa K2z to meet the world's rapidly rising demand for lysine, many large companies are starting to increase investment in this area K2z according to Japanese economic news in 2002, Ajinomoto will first invest 1.9 billion yen through Brazilian Ajinomoto biolatina company to improve the production capacity of the plant, which will increase from the current 30000 T / A to 480000 T / a by September 2003 After further development, its production capacity will be increased to 60000 T / A K2z weizhisu company is also building similar factories in Italy, Thailand and North America, striving to reach 300000 tons by 2005, and increase the output by 50% from the current production level Generally speaking, the production cost of foreign lysine is 0.8-1.0 USD, kg, while the sales cost is 1.2 USD / kg Since 1995, the price of k2z has fluctuated greatly in the international market, with a profit of several US dollars per kilogram at the highest and almost cost price sales at the lowest In recent two years, due to the fierce competition and sufficient supply of many manufacturers, the price trend tends to be flat Fig 2 price trend of lysine market in Europe in 1995-222 k2z III domestic methionine Market: demand growth is fast, completely dependent on imported k2z; China's methionine market growth is fast, the demand is about 70000 T, and now totally dependent on imports At present, the main methionine production plants in the world, such as digosa, novas, Caota, andissu, Sumitomo and other companies, are all sold in China In 2001, China imported about 58000 tons The trend of k2z solid methionine market in the first 10 months in 2002 was basically stable, the price was between 19.0-21.0 yuan / kg, and the weekly average price was close to 200 yuan / kg However, after October, the price of methionine rose abruptly In November, the price of methionine rose to the peak of 25.0 yuan / kg, which was higher than the level of the same period in 2001 K2z from January to October 2002, China imported about 40000 tons of methionine in total, while 46000 tons were imported in the same period of 2001 In the following months, due to the production problems of two major production plants of andissu company due to equipment maintenance, the price in the international market rose sharply Due to the lack of supply and high import cost in the domestic market, many dealers had no goods to sell, resulting in a sharp rise in the price in the late 2002 But on the whole, the price of k2z in 2002 continued the downturn since 2001, which was the lowest in recent years In recent years, due to the competition among major manufacturers for market share, the possibility of a high price of more than 30 yuan per kilogram in the domestic market a few years ago has been very small The price change of k2z liquid methionine is affected by solid methionine, and the trend is basically the same as that of solid methionine, with little change In 2002, the overall price is between 16.0-17.0 yuan / kg, but in the next few months, the price has reached more than 20.0 yuan / kg K2z 4 The domestic lysine market is developing rapidly The current demand for lysine in China is about 80000-100000 tons, while the domestic lysine is about 60000 tons Most of the rest depends on imports The main importers are Indonesia, the United States and South Korea In 2001, China imported 73600 tons From January to October 2002, 70800 tons were imported, up 29.8% on a year-on-year basis At present, domestic feed lysine production enterprises mainly include Changchun Dacheng Biochemical Co., Ltd and Sichuan ChuanHua weizhisu Co., Ltd Quanzhou Daquan lysine Co., Ltd Anhui Fengyuan Biochemical Co., Ltd From the perspective of production capacity, China has been able to meet the domestic market demand, but the actual output is still far behind On the whole, the production scale of Chinese enterprises is relatively small, the technology is relatively backward, and the production cost is high (the domestic production cost is about 1.2-1.4 USD / kg) Since 1998, a large amount of low-priced lysine has been poured into China, which has a certain impact on domestic lysine The country was originated in the United States from June 2001 to September 2002 South Korea and Indonesia's imported feed grade L-lysine hydrochloride were investigated for antidumping, and it was finally determined that the products under investigation did not cause or threaten to cause material damage to the domestic related industries This will intensify the competition among the major lysine producers in the domestic market, help the domestic lysine producers to reduce costs and improve efficiency in the competition, so as to adapt to the fierce global market environment after the world In 2002, the market price of lysine in k2z was generally stable The lowest point in 2002 appeared in June, and the price has fallen below 15.0 yuan / kg, which is mainly due to the increasing supply, the weak demand and the sharp decline of domestic soybean meal price The highest point was from October to December 2002 BASF's South Korean factory and weizhisu's French factory had production problems, which made the international market supply tight and the price firm At this time, the domestic market demand turned strong, the domestic supply was very short, and the price kept rising Figure 4 the price trend of China's lysine market in 1999-2002 (k2z V) The market outlook of China's methionine and lysine market in the next few months of 2002 The market trend of China's methionine and lysine is expected to reach a peak in the early 2003, and then it will return to the previous stable K2z in the future, with the increase of residents' income, the development of population urbanization, the increase of livestock and poultry products consumption, the feed industry will continue to develop, and the demand for methionine and lysine will increase After China's accession to the WTO, the competition among the world's major producers in the domestic market will be more intense, which is conducive to meeting the growing domestic demand, making the domestic market abundant in supply and low in price K2Z
At the same time, domestic lysine production enterprises should increase their R & D capacity, improve technology, reduce costs, take the road of scale economy, strive to realize the sustainable development of domestic lysine industrial production, make full use of and give full play to the advantages of their own raw materials, energy, geographical location and other resources, strive to meet the domestic demand of lysine, and strive to expand exports and participate in the international market Market competition K2z k2z