March 2019 sugar market supply and demand situation analysis: domestic sugar prices flat slightly higher

China Business Intelligence Network News: domestic sugar prices flat slightly higher, international sugar prices fell slightly.
domestic market sugar supply is adequate, demand has picked up slightly, prices are expected to run smoothly and weakly.
prices in the international market are mainly expected to operate with small shocks due to high inventories, international crude oil prices and fluctuations in the Brazilian currency exchange rate.
(a) domestic sugar prices rose slightly flat.
, the average domestic sugar price was 5,178 yuan per ton, up 48 yuan, or 0.9 percent, month-on-month, and down 601 yuan, or 10.4 percent, year-on-year.
the main reason for the flat domestic sugar prices is that the domestic sugar market is in the low season of consumption, the market trading is light.
(ii) International sugar prices fell slightly.
March, the average international sugar price (ICE 11 raw sugar futures, the same as 12.46 cents) was 12.46 cents, down 0.49 cents, or 3.8 per cent, from a year earlier, and 0.37 cents, or 2.9 per cent, from a year earlier.
factors affecting the small decline in international sugar prices are: improved weather conditions in Brazil, the decline in the Brazilian currency exchange rate, the decline in international crude oil prices and so on.
(iii) the spread between domestic and foreign exchange rates widened.
March, Brazil's sugar-to-shore after-tax price of 15% of the quota was 3,338 yuan per ton, down 89 yuan, or 2.6%, from the previous month, 1,840 yuan lower than the domestic sugar price and 137 yuan more than the previous month.
The after-tax price of Brazilian sugar, which is 50% tariff outside the import quota, was 4,247 yuan per ton, down 116 yuan, or 2.7%, from the previous month, 931 yuan lower than the domestic sugar price and 164 yuan more than the previous month.
price of Brazilian sugar after-tax, which imposes a 40 per cent safeguard tariff outside the tariff quota, is 5,286 yuan per ton, 108 yuan higher than the domestic sugar price.
the widening of domestic and foreign price differentials is that international sugar prices fell slightly while domestic sugar prices were flat.
(iv) 1-2 months of sugar imports increased significantly.
, China imported 148,000 tons of sugar, a decrease of 88.9% month-on-month and 35.5% year-on-year.
January-February, China imported 14.8 million tons of sugar, an increase of 1.8 times year-on-year, and imports of 0.54 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 1.3 times year-on-year.
mainly from Brazil (37.5 per cent of total imports), Thailand (27.4 per cent) and Cuba (18.2 per cent).
(v) International sugar excess decreased during the 2018/19 squeeze season.
International Sugar Organization (ISO) reported on February 28th that international sugar production for the 2018/19 squeeze season is expected to be 178.68 million tonnes, down from the previous estimate of 18.49 million tonnes, while international sugar consumption is expected to be 17.804 million tonnes, up 1.63 per cent from the previous quarter, but closer to the 10th quarter average The value is 1.67 per cent lower; the international sugar oversupply for the 2018/19 squeeze season is expected to be 64.1 million tonnes, down from the previous estimate of 2.17 million tonnes, with Brazil cutting its sugar production forecast by 1.35 million tonnes, Europe by 800,000 tonnes, Thailand's sugar production outlook by 800,000 tonnes and India's sugar production forecast unchanged at 32 million tonnes.
of sugar production in Brazil and the European Union has been reduced, outpacing the impact of higher production in Thailand.
(vi) it is expected that domestic sugar prices will be mainly weak and stable.
domestic market, the current domestic production areas have been harvested, sugar production is stable, domestic sugar supply is adequate.
demand, the domestic tax reduction and fee reduction policy came into effect on April 1st, the burden of enterprises was appropriately reduced, the enthusiasm for sugar sales increased, and market turnover rebounded at the end of the month.
expected that in the short term domestic sugar prices to weak and stable operation mainly.
International markets, sugar mills in south-central Brazil cut sugar production by 26 per cent year-on-year due to higher profits from water-based ethanol than sugar, resulting in a reduction in global sugar production of nearly 10 million tonnes, offsetting an increase in India's sugar supply.
At present, the international sugar from oversupply gradually shifted to the balance between supply and demand, but by the impact of large international stocks, the international sugar price increase space is small, coupled with the recent international crude oil prices, the Brazilian currency exchange rate volatility, it is expected that the international sugar prices are still operating mainly with small fluctuations.