Malaysian crude palm oil futures in the first quarter of this year

Introduction: the crude palm oil futures market is likely to fall steadily in the first quarter of this year due to the possible devaluation of Malaysian ringgit, sluggish import demand from China and India, and abundant global edible oil supply, according to ta futures, a Malaysian futures trading company, on Thursday Gabriela Gan, vice president of TA futures, said crude palm oil futures could oscillate between rm1230-1450 in the first three months of this year One of the reasons for the breakthrough in crude palm oil prices is that there is widespread speculation that the ringgit exchange rate may rise 5 to 10% A stronger ringgit would make crude palm oil priced in dollars cheaper Gabriela said that the issue of the ringgit exchange rate still exists, so it is difficult for the price of crude palm oil to rise On Thursday, the benchmark April crude palm oil contract closed at rm1279, down 17 ringgit from Wednesday From January to March, China's import demand is usually at a seasonal low, because palm oil is easy to freeze at low temperature, so Chinese buyers will reduce their purchase of palm oil in winter, which will also put pressure on crude palm oil futures Gabriela said that only when the weather gets warmer will China speed up the import of palm oil He added that the amount of palm oil purchased in India in the first quarter of 2005 was likely to decrease because of the expected high yield of Indian winter oilseeds During the first quarter of 2005, India imported an average of 300000 tons of edible oil per month, which is lower than the average monthly purchasing volume of 56679 tons from August to October last year The global oil seed supply will also make the crude palm oil price outlook negative In 2005, the global oil seed supply is expected to reach 380 million tons, an increase of 51 million tons per year