Mainland Futures: the future trouble of a large number of spot prices in the near future

Introduction: as the cost of imported soybeans has been decreasing since mid September, the squeezing profit of oil plants has been significantly improved The operating rate of oil plants has increased, and the enthusiasm for purchasing American soybeans has also begun to increase Recently, 4.0439 million tons of American new soybeans have been purchased, up 20% from the same period last year At the time of high-yield new beans coming into the market, a large number of imported soybeans by oil companies may lead to the appearance of the Bureau of document Write (""); ad'dst = ad'dst + 1; noodles in the soybean market in the later stage, which may cause heavy losses to the domestic soybean and soybean meal prices Since the second quarter of this year, due to the continuous plummeting of international soybean market prices, the continuous downturn of domestic soybean meal demand, and the pressure of national macro-control, a large number of oil companies imported high priced soybeans, resulting in serious losses in the oil industry Many Chinese oil plants have no choice but to break a large number of contracts for imported soybeans, leading to a lack of imports at one time, and international grain companies have also suffered losses of 200 million to 300 million US dollars The sequelae of this is that the import of oil plants is currently restricted by the harsh sales conditions set by American traders The following are the contract terms that Chinese oil companies must accept: first, if Chinese buyers want to purchase 50000 tons of soybeans per ship, they must pay a deposit of at least 2.5 million US dollars (the deposit is equivalent to 20% of the cost of the whole ship of soybeans, compared with the previous minimum of 5%); second, Chinese buyers are required to receive the goods within one month to one and a half months after signing the contract (the former buyers can Third, Chinese importers are required to open letters of credit within three days after the contract is signed (rather than in the past few weeks, in order to confirm that the buyer has the funds to buy the soybeans); in addition, American companies require Chinese buyers to increase the deposit when the Chicago soybeans price rises, otherwise the seller will put the Chicago Futures Exchange The position of The traditional mode of capital turnover of domestic oil plants is: issuing letter of credit by banks > processing imported soybeans by oil plants > withdrawing funds from selling soyoil and soybean meal > returning letter of credit funds, and circulating in turn After accepting the new terms of the contract, the cycle of price counting will be shortened after the oil factory purchases the premium, the capital requirements will be further improved, the technical level of operation opportunity and means will be tested, and the competition will be intensified In the past years, when China's bill paying has appeared in the CBOT soybean market, the price will always rise, the purchasing cost of oil plants will always increase, and the risk of marrying the follow-up industry will naturally increase At the beginning of the year, the oil factory purchased South American soybeans improperly, and took on a large loss After paying a lot of tuition fees, the oil factory concentrated on purchasing North American soybeans again Its behavior is still lack of scientific and systematic When CBOT soybeans fell about 50% to 500 cents / bushel in recent months from the 16 year high at the beginning of the year, American farmers began to apply for government loan subsidies, showing reluctance to sell With the increase of discount price and the shipping rate of $60, the enthusiasm of Chinese buyers began to appear, which led to the rebound of CBOT soybean futures price of nearly 30 cents Under the situation that the poor sales of South American soybeans this year led to a large increase in inventories, the concentrated listing of high-yield new soybeans in the northern hemisphere, and the increasing pressure of world soybean supply in the future, the fund still holds a clear attitude of more than 47000 net positions, which is not optimistic in the future It may be a good time for oil companies to purchase in batches and use the price difference combination operation reasonably; however, oil companies can't wait for a large number of price points when there is a small profit squeeze, lest they be blocked by international speculators again, regardless of the actual situation of national basis and demand, it is likely to bury hidden dangers again Before the National Day holiday, there was a profit of up to 500 yuan / ton or even 600 yuan / ton Up to now, although the soybean meal and soybean oil have fallen in succession, the profit of the oil factory is still 200 yuan / ton (at present, the domestic soybean crushing profit is significantly higher than the imported soybean, about 300-400 yuan / ton) As the spot price of soybean meal continues to decline, the consumption of poultry, meat, eggs and other downstream products began to decline after the festival, and the prices of corn and wheat, other related feed raw materials, also fell sharply in the near future Facing the off-season demand, feed enterprises have a stronger wait-and-see mentality, and the phenomenon of empty and light positions is more common After a large number of purchases in the near future, it is estimated that the arrival of imported soybeans in October and November will exceed expectations, and may reach 1.8 million tons and 2 million tons respectively The arrival cost is around 2760 yuan / ton According to the transaction price of soybean oil that has dropped by more than 500 yuan in the near future, 5750 yuan / ton, the cost price of soybean meal is 2350 yuan / ton If the period price of CBOT soybean continues to decline, the price of domestic soybean will also be dragged down At that time, farmers in the production area may sell a large number of new beans With the influx of low-cost imported soybeans, the soybean market in the later period is likely to be oversupplied again At the same time, China has recently purchased 70000 tons of cheap soybean meal, plus more than 70% of the year-on-year growth of soybeans In terms of oil import, the risk of future supply cannot be ignored CBOT soybean trend chart