Main factors affecting feed market this year (1)

Introduction: this year's feed raw material market has some ups and downs What is controlling and influencing this? How can those seemingly unrelated things interfere with feed supply and demand and price changes today and in the future? The effect of macro-control has an immediate impact on whether the grain yield is high or the grain price is in tight balance The rise of grain price is the seventh wave of grain price since the founding of the people's Republic of China, which originated from the imbalance between supply and demand in the new round of grain price rise in October 2003 According to the figures from June to September this year, grain prices have been increasing by more than 30% year on year The root cause of rising grain price lies in the imbalance between supply and demand caused by successive reduction of grain production The immediate effect of the regulation and control is that the first document attaches great importance to the increase of grain production and farmers' income; the second is the solemn commitment of the government work report of the two sessions to the reduction and exemption of agricultural taxes: 1% reduction per year, and the cancellation of agricultural taxes within five years; the executive meeting of the State Council chaired by Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council in the middle of this year, and the subsequent issue of "about the first year" The opinions on deepening the reform of grain circulation system and the regulations on the management of grain circulation will further push the new round of grain circulation system reform, which is mainly focused on "farmers' direct grain production and the opening of grain purchase and sale market", to the whole country This adjustment and control is based on the idea of calmly analyzing the advantages and disadvantages of grain price rise, respecting the law of price, mobilizing the enthusiasm of grain farmers, and taking good care of the urban low-income people It leaves a certain space for grain price to go up, makes good use of the market law to adjust the difference between the supply and demand of grain and the income of urban and rural areas, and becomes a wonderful stroke in macro-control Li Chenggui, a researcher at the Institute of rural development of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that in the next two to three years, there is still the possibility of sustained increase in food prices This year's increase in grain production is only a recovery From the perspective of the development of food demand, only the restorative growth can not solve the long-term problem To solve the food problem, we must consider it from the perspective of development and the global context, rather than from the perspective of self-sufficient small-scale farmers The gradual opening of the import market price is directly affected by the international market After entering WTO, the tariff, quota, trade right and distribution right of agricultural products will be reduced The average tariff dropped from 19.9% in 2001 to 15.1% in 2008 China, like many WTO members such as the United States, will use the tariff quota system In terms of grain, the initial quota for import is 18.3 million tons, and the final quota is 22.15 million tons Trade and distribution rights With the increase of domestic feed volume year by year, and the reduction of domestic related products, the gap of feed raw materials is growing, and import becomes a need At present, the feedstuff raw materials with large import volume include: fish meal, soybean, soybean meal and wheat The corn with large export volume also gradually reduces under the situation of increasing domestic demand From the soybean meal alone: cngoic estimated that China imported 19.5 million tons of soybeans in 2004 / 05, an increase of 18% compared with 16.5 million tons in 2003 / 04 The import demand of soybean and soybean meal is increasing year by year