Low profit in broiler industry is still the main theme

Introduction: new page 1 -- Interview with Mr Tai Youhua, director of foreign trade veterinarian of Zhucheng Background: in March, the export of broilers in our province experienced a 10-month low period, showing signs of rebounding The export volume and price have increased, and the gloom in the industry has gradually opened In April, "SARS" has affected the circulation and consumption of chicken to a certain extent, and the prices of chickens and chicks have fallen On May 12, Japan suspended the import of poultry and meat from China, and the news has spread, and the market is large Disorderly, the price of chicken fell to two or three yuan per kilogram, and the price of each chicken was more than ten yuan per kilogram The enthusiasm of making up the market for broilers was frustrated, and the scale of chicken farms was reduced one after another In June, the market for broilers recovered, and the price of chicken and broilers respectively reached 5.56/kilogram and 1.16/kilogram, and the momentum of making up the market for chickens rose In four months, the situation of broiler market has changed Where does the broiler industry go? The reporter interviewed Mr Tai Youhua, chief veterinary officer of Zhucheng Foreign Trade JHL: President Tai, based on past experience and Japan's response now, how can we predict when Japan will be able to switch this time? JHL Tai Youhua (not abbreviated to Tai); now it's quite difficult to predict when Japan will switch on and off poultry meat in China First of all, there are sufficient reasons for the closure Japan did detect the virus in the duck meat exported from China Now, it's very difficult to negotiate on the issue of poultry meat export, and the reasons for requiring the switch are not sufficient Secondly, judging from the current domestic chicken stock in Japan, it's estimated that Japan can still switch on and off poultry meat Weijhl held for a period of time; third, due to the impact of the SARS incident, Japan will not send a delegation to visit China recently, which also extended the time of customs clearance According to the past years' experience, Japan's domestic chicken stock is generally more than 100000 tons These stocks are basically consumed in three months Japanese chicken suppliers will ask their government to switch on and off Chinese poultry for more than three months With various efforts, they will switch on and off This time, Japan's customs clearance is not as usual, so according to past experience, it is estimated that it can be opened and closed at the end of August and the beginning of September But now, it is unlikely that it can be opened and closed It is more certain that Japan can investigate the theory of poultry meat production in China in August, and it will be opened and closed from late September to October, but it is greatly affected by uncertain factors JHL reporter: what's the situation of Japanese poultry market now? Does poultry meat in Thailand and Brazil represent the share of Chinese meat in Japan? JHL Tai: in the Japanese market, poultry meat in China has occupied a large market share due to its price advantage In May this year, as soon as the news of Japan's ban on poultry meat in China was spread, Thailand and Brazil immediately increased the export price of poultry meat The price of leg meat increased from 1600 US dollars per ton to 2600-3000 US dollars per ton Thai broiler association is to continue its production and price protection measures to increase the price of poultry JHL from the current market situation in Japan to analyze, Japanese dealers, consumers still favor cheap Chinese chicken Price is an important factor affecting market demand According to Japanese customers, Japan still has a strong demand for Chinese chicken Now the price of leg meat imported from Japan is as high as 3000 US dollars per ton It is estimated that Japan will not persist in the high price for a long time The price advantage of Chinese poultry meat is still attractive Thailand and Brazil will not have a great impact on the share of Chinese poultry meat in the Japanese market JHL reporter: in the face of frequent Japanese closures, how can we break the current pattern? JHL Tai: since the day when China's chicken entered the international stage, it has not been separated from the trade barrier On the one hand, it shows the intensity of international competition, on the other hand, it also shows that there are problems in the quality of poultry meat in China To change the current situation, the most fundamental way is to improve the product quality of the chicken processing enterprises It should be said that from the equipment level to the management level, they have achieved the integration with the world, but the production level needs to be improved, so the large-scale and standardized production of chicken is imperative Only from the source can we guarantee the product quality Only when the product quality is guaranteed, can we speak with confidence Even if foreign countries use technical barriers to restrict the export of poultry meat in China, we can take corresponding measures to fight back and protect the chicken industry in China According to the current situation, the broiler processing and export enterprises should further study the market, adjust the product structure, adjust the market structure, and reduce the excessive dependence on the Japanese market Zhucheng Foreign Trade has increased the share of cooked products in recent years according to the needs of the situation Although Japan closed the customs this time, it had little impact on the export of cooked products, so the company suffered relatively large losses JHL reporter: from late June The price of broiler market rebounds What's the reason for the rebound? JHL Tai: since June, especially in recent days, the price of broilers in our province has been rising, and the price of broilers has also risen to more than one yuan Of course, the current price is normal At present, the production cycle of commercial broilers is more than 50 days The broilers raised before May 12 have been on the market by the beginning of June However, after the news of Japan's closure on May 12 was spread, the enthusiasm of broilers to make up the market was frustrated, and the broilers were basically not raised, which resulted in a significant decline in the number of broilers in the market after the middle of June In addition, the recent "non Olympic" impact weakened, the consumption of residents increased, the market circulation recovered, and the price of broilers rose in line with the law At the same time, the price of a batch of broilers released in the first ten days of June is very low while the selling price is good, so the breeding benefit is considerable JHL reporter: general manager, can you make a general forecast on the situation of broilers in the second half of the year? JHL Tai: due to the complexity of the influencing factors, we can only talk about our views on the current situation From the analysis of the current breeding scale of meat breeders, due to the low market in the previous period, the elimination amount of parent generation breeders in our province is about 30% In the near future, the number of chicks on the market is relatively small, and now the supplement can still ensure a good income However, in the long run, with the increase of broiler breeding, the price of chicken will gradually fall It is estimated that the broiler market will linger on the line of profit and loss in the second half of the year, which is unlikely to generate huge profits, and the trend of small profits is obvious JHL