Looking back on the two years, what is the status quo of the selected varieties in the second batch of collections?

The second batch of national procurement of a total of 32 varieties was successful, 100 products were selected, and 77 enterprises were selected, and the average reduction of the products to be selected was 53%.

We take the sales, sales volume and compound growth rate of these 32 selected varieties (38 selected product specifications) as the main analysis dimensions, and compare them with the total sales and sales of the drugs with the same generic name, trying to find the price-for-volume exchange of the selected varieties in the collection, the impact on other varieties with the same generic name, as well as the cause exploration and problem reflection

50% of varieties achieve effective price-for-volume conversion

Data makes sense

Table 1: Changes in sales volume of 32 selected varieties (38 selected product specifications) (2019-2021)

Table 1 shows the sales volume changes of the 32 selected varieties (38 selected product specifications) from 2019 to 2021, and the CAGR used in the table is the compound growth rate

In addition, there are 9 varieties of growth rates lower than the overall market, including candesartan ester tablets, isoniazid tablets, meloxicam tablets, etc.

On the whole, the second batch of collection and mining will be carried out by the end of 2021, and the effect of exchanging price for quantity of 50% of varieties is obvious, and the compound growth rate of 4 varieties exceeds 100%, while the compound growth rate of most varieties is between 10% and 100%; As for the other half of the varieties with a price-for-volume effect that is not obvious, the specific reasons need to be further analyzed, or affected by the epidemic, it may also be that the market of this category is already shrinking, and the sampling bias

18 varieties with sales CAGR below -50%

The impact of collection on drug price reduction is relatively clear, which is also well reflected

Although the compound growth rate of in-hospital sales from 2019 to 2021 is -4%, the compound growth rate of only 4 of the 32 selected varieties in the second batch is higher than that of the overall market: Allison Tan tablets, ceflamybenz capsules, paclitaxel for injection (albumin-binding type) and tadalafil tablets

Excluding the 4 varieties that outperformed the market, the compound growth rate of the remaining 28 varieties was lower than the overall growth rate of the sample hospital and was negative

Sales substitution is obvious

Collection and collection usually only one or two varieties (specifications) of a generic drug, but the capacity of the market in the hospital is limited, and what impact will it have on other varieties with the same generic name after the price reduction and volume of the selected varieties? In other words, the national collection generally only collects large varieties commonly used in clinical practice, so is the change trend of the same generic drug consistent with the change of the selected varieties in the national collection?

Table 3: Changes in sales volume of 32 selected varieties (2019-2021)

The sales volume of the second batch of 32 selected varieties and generic names of the drugs is shown in

Figure 1: The change in the percentage change in the sales volume of the selected varieties as a generic drug

The proportion of sales has declined

The purpose of the national organization of collection is to save medical insurance funds, squeeze the circulation of drugs, improve the accessibility of patients' medications, etc.

Table 4: Changes in sales of generic names of the 32 selected varieties (2019-2021)

Table 4 shows the sales changes of the second batch of 32 selected varieties and generic drugs, on the whole, the difference in sales between the selected varieties and the generic drugs is large, although only 4 generic drugs have achieved positive growth, but only Onlison tablets are the common positive growth varieties

Figure 2: The change in the percentage of sales of the selected varieties as a generic drug

Sales have not increased significantly after the increase, which is also a certain expected thing
for some of the selected companies.
For example, "barefoot" companies are selected at low prices, although they only get the market share after shrinking, it is also a pure revenue growth
for the company itself.
However, for non-"barefoot" enterprises, or enterprises with high drug quality and high cost, after the low-price selection, the original market share is lost; Or, in other words, the enterprise actively participates in the collection, the result is not as good as the competitors who do not participate in the collection, which is unfair to the system for the selected enterprises, and then may also discourage the enthusiasm of
the enterprises to participate in the collection.
Exploring the inclusion of generic drugs and drugs with the same indications into the collection or forming a price linkage is also a new path that can be explored in the follow-up collection, which has been involved
in the sixth batch of insulin special collection.

brief summary

According to the first batch of "4 + 7" collection and mining execution time, the implementation time of the collection and mining so far is only 3 years, and the market pattern and industry changes caused by the collection and mining are still in
progress.
Overall
.
The collection and collection is carried out in a stable and orderly manner nationwide, the enterprise end of the consistency evaluation and the collection of quotation behavior gradually tends to be rational, the hospital will be the use of the collection of drugs into the assessment, for patients to carry out the collection of drugs publicity and promotion work, the government side is based on industry feedback and collection of implementation results, and constantly improve and optimize the rules
of collection 。 However, the process of normalization of collection and procurement has also exposed some problems, such as some enterprises sacrificing drug quality for price competition, the shortage of drug supply, and the internal informatization of medical institutions is slightly backward, doctors can not grasp the progress in time and seriously biased towards the collection of varieties of drugs, etc.
The emergence of these problems also shows once again that collection and collection as a far-reaching and extensive industry project, it is necessary for all parties to consider and work together, continuously find problems to correct problems, and continuously optimize details to ensure fairness and accessibility.
And closely follow the development of the industry continues to develop and improve, and ultimately promote the collection to achieve the greatest multi-win situation, drive the transformation and upgrading of the industry, promote the reform of the three-doctor linkage, and ultimately benefit more patients
.