Looking at the future development of soybean price from the recent fluctuation trend

Introduction: at present, the domestic soybean price is in the dilemma of rising and falling At present, the domestic soybean price is in the dilemma of rising and falling There are many uncertain factors affecting the future trend of domestic soybean price In the middle of March, Fuzhou soybean price is subtly affected by many factors, and the market price fluctuates between 2760-2780 yuan / ton Here are a few main factors for analysis 36s 1 Policy: after the Ministry of agriculture of China issued the implementation rules for the safety management of genetically modified agricultural products in June 2001, it stipulated that the imported genetically modified products should be tested for safety In order to ensure the smooth transition of the implementation of the rules, the Ministry of Agriculture issued and implemented the Interim Measures for the safety management of genetically modified agricultural products, and the expiry date was from 2002 Extended from 20 December to 20 September 2003 However, some traders are worried that the new test released by the Ministry of agriculture in January will not be available until September, when the provisional agreement has expired, which will affect the normal soybean trade after September 36s2 Domestic market: after the Spring Festival, the shortage of transportation capacity of the Northeast Railway has been effectively alleviated, and the backlog of northeast soybeans in the early stage began to flow into the southern market The soybean price in Lianyungang market has begun to show a downward trend At present, the price of the second level Northeast soybean train board in the region is 2540-2560 yuan / ton, down 20-40 yuan / ton compared with February The picking up price of the warehouse is 2550-2570 yuan / ton, down 30-50 yuan / ton compared with February The purchasing price of the oil factory is 2560-2580 yuan / ton, down 20-40 yuan compared with February/ The price of soybean in the northeast of Fuzhou market fluctuated at a high level In recent years, large-scale oil plants have emerged in China According to relevant statistics, by the end of 2002, the annual soybean crushing capacity in China has reached 50 million tons, and is expected to expand to 66 million tons in 2003 The domestic crushing capacity is 21.6 million tons, which can meet the market demand The crushing capacity of oil plants is seriously over and the operation is seriously insufficient In order to seize the soybean resources, the market price remains high In addition, the speculation and speculation in the futures market make the soybean price constantly reach a new high Due to the surplus of soybean crushing output, the downstream product soybean meal has been in a situation of serious oversupply Since February, the price of soybean meal has declined from 2140 yuan / ton In this ten day period, the price of Fuzhou soybean meal has rebounded since it reached 2000 yuan / ton In the end of ten day, it closed at 2040 yuan / ton, 40 yuan higher than that in the first ten day/ Tons, domestic soybean meal prices have also experienced a round of decline, and now all stabilize At present, soybean meal consumption has entered the off-season, which has a greater pressure on the stable high soybean price At present, the price of soybean oil in Fuzhou market has been generally revised back After the correction in the first ten days, the price of soybean salad oil in the middle of the year has rebounded At present, the price is 6320-6340 yuan / ton, which is 20-40 yuan / ton higher than that in the first ten days At present, the maintenance of the price is largely affected by the maintenance of the soybean price In April, new and cheap soybeans produced in South America will be put on the market in an all-round way, and the market price of soybean oil will also be depressed This year, China's quota for importing soybean oil is 2.8 million tons At present, the duty paid price of American soybean oil arriving at port in March is about 5500 yuan / ton, and the long-term price is more attractive, so traders will surely increase their purchase volume Therefore, the domestic soybean oil price pressure will be very huge in the future 36s 3 Import: in March and April, China's soybeans faced huge import pressure According to relevant statistics, the import volume of soybeans to Hong Kong in March will reach 2 million tons Recently, an official from the Ministry of agriculture of China confirmed that the Ministry of agriculture has started to issue Brazil's soybean import safety certification, and the barriers to soybean trade between China and Brazil have been eliminated In April, a large number of new soybeans listed in South America will enter the domestic market At present, there are six ships with 355400 tons of Brazilian soybeans shipped to China It is estimated that the total quantity of soybeans ordered by China in April to May will reach about 3.4 million tons (1.4 million tons in April and 2 million tons in May) Since CNF China quoted us $234 / T for Brazil soybean base in April, it was about 2330 yuan / T after duty paid landing, which was 15-22 dollars / t lower than that of US soybean At present, according to statistics, the stock of imported soybeans in domestic ports has reached 1.2-1.5 million tons, among which, the stock of ports in East China is relatively concentrated, and the recent arrival volume in Guangdong Province has also begun to increase, and the pressure of imported soybeans in domestic ports has begun to highlight It is expected that the arrival of a large number of imported soybeans from April to May will have a significant impact on the high domestic soybean price 36s4 Planting area: according to the latest report of the United States Department of agriculture, the soybean production in South America is expected to reach 91 million tons in 2002 / 03, nearly 17 million tons higher than that in the United States The total soybean production in the world is 191 million tons, and the annual carry over inventory is 30.65 million tons, which is the high level of the whole ball soybean inventory in recent years At home, nine departments including the State Planning Commission issued the notice on the implementation of relevant measures to further support the development of China's soybean industry at the end of January, making new provisions on supporting soybean production, processing and encouraging soybean meal export For this reason, Heilongjiang Province has formulated the plan for the implementation of Heilongjiang province's soybean revitalization plan in 2003, which aims to expand the planting area to 45 million mu, with a unit yield of 155 kg and a total yield of 6.975 million tons, of which 12 million mu (6 million mu) is high oil soybean, 6 million mu (2 million mu) is high protein soybean, with a unit yield index of 165 kg and a total yield of 297 Ten thousand tons It is predicted that the soybean planting area in China will increase steadily this year, and the domestic soybean supply will also increase synchronously 36s 5 War impact: the war between the United States, Britain and other countries officially started in this ten day With the development of the war situation, the impact on the global economy will be highlighted At present, people from all walks of life generally believe that a quick decision will be beneficial to the development of the world economy, and a long-term war will drag down the world economy At that time, the soaring oil price will increase the transportation cost of imported soybeans At the same time, the war will consume a lot of grain reserves, make the supply of grain tight, and lead to the price rise Although the impact of the domestic soybean market on the war is not obvious at present, the soybean futures market has reflected Many uncertain factors caused by war and turbulent world situation will affect the future trend of soybean price in China 36s to sum up, there are many uncertain factors that affect the price trend of soybean in China at present On the one hand, the price rise is restrained by the output and import volume, on the other hand, the impact of the policy and the war between the United States and Iraq provides a relatively rich imagination space Therefore, considering many uncertain factors, the future trend of domestic soybean will be very delicate, and it is expected that it is more likely to go out of a large shock   36s
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