Looking at the domestic soybean development environment from the international market

Introduction: during the long Spring Festival holiday, the domestic soybean market keeps stable, while the international soybean market has changed a lot The specific situation is as follows: RDY first, the negotiation on China Brazil soybean trade has made progress, Brazil imports China's corn and garlic, and China's "green light" on Brazil soybean RDY followed by USDA's forecast of 71.5 million acres of soybean sown in 2003 / 04, which is far lower than 73.8 million acres sown in 2002 / 03 There is no doubt that these changes of RDY have direct and indirect influence on the international and domestic soybean market after the festival Analyzing the changes of these factors plays a direct role in grasping the development trend of domestic soybean market RDY first of all, pay attention to the progress of China Brazil soybean trade We have noticed that at the end of January, a breakthrough has been made in soybean transgene between China and Brazil Since mid January, news about soybean trade between China and Brazil has frequently appeared in the media and online On January 11, a delegation organized by 14 officials arrived in Brazil and concluded its visit to Brazilian soybean producers and soybean research institutions As the focus of the world soybean trade has shifted from the United States to South America, and the transgenic vision of Brazil's soybean is focused on Brazil During the visit, both China and Pakistan released informal information from time to time in favor of themselves, indicating that the negotiations on soybean trade between China and Pakistan are still at the stage of testing each other's cards As far as China is concerned, everyone knows that China needs to import Brazil's soybeans, because it is not good for China to reject Brazil's soybeans Once the trade between China and Brazil's soybeans is interrupted, the price of American soybeans will rise significantly, at least remain strong for a long time, and domestic consumption will bear the higher price of soybean products The reason why China has been procrastinating on the issue of China Brazil soybean trade is that there has been a huge deficit in China Brazil trade for a long time For Brazil, RDY has benefited greatly from its trade with China Therefore, even if we increase the import from China, we should also make the increased commodities contribute to the soybean trade with China In this economic context, China and Pakistan reached an initial agreement at the end of January China adopts a more flexible policy on genetically modified Brazilian soybeans to resume importing Brazilian soybeans, while Brazil chooses to import Chinese corn and garlic The end of January is of great importance to both China and Pakistan If the trade between China and Pakistan is not clear until the middle of February, it will do harm to both countries At that time, if Brazil still does not make a decision on increasing the import of agricultural products from China, China may continue to light the "red light" on Brazilian soybeans, and Chinese soybean traders may have to increase their purchases of Argentine soybeans and American soybeans And over 2 In the middle of June, if Brazil's soybean exports to China are still hopeless, Brazil's soybean may flow to other regions or increase domestic crushing consumption At this time, the effect of China's re pressing Brazil's imports of Chinese agricultural products will not be very ideal Instead, Brazil has the initiative to increase its anti-dumping investigation against China, which will cause a negative situation for China's exports of other products to Brazil According to the fact that Brazil has succumbed to China's demand to increase the import of corn and garlic from China, RDY expects that the total import of Brazil's soybeans in Shandong Province will probably increase significantly in 2003 Although the increase in imports of Brazilian soybeans has caused a certain degree of damage to the interests of Chinese farmers (mainly farmers in the northeast), it is good for Chinese oil processing enterprises For Shandong, increasing Brazil's soybean imports will obviously help drive down the spot price of domestic soybeans, which is one of the benefits The intention of Brazil to choose garlic as its substitute for imported agricultural products is also very obvious, that is to let Shandong, the main garlic producing area in China, gain benefits, which can greatly stimulate Shandong, a big soybean pressing Province, to increase the soybean import from Brazil It is the third benefit for Shandong to purchase soybeans whose price is lower than that of the United States For the farmers in Northeast China, the loss caused by the decrease of soybean spot price due to the increase of import will be compensated by the increase of corn export Therefore, the origin of imported soybean in Shandong Province in 2003 is worth noting In terms of imported soybean in Shandong Province, the proportion of China Brazil soybean will indirectly reflect the tightness of China's transgenic policy Another important situation during RDY's Spring Festival is that the USDA issued a 10-year baseline forecast report on February 7, which predicted that the soybean planting area in 2003 / 2004 was 71.5 million acres, far lower than the 73.8 million acres planted last year, mainly because USDA lowered the loan rate of soybean last year However, due to the estimated per unit yield of 39.7 bushels / acre, the U.S Department of agriculture forecasts that the U.S soybean production in 2003 / 2004 will be 2.785 billion bushels, higher than last year's 2.73 billion bushels, increasing the soybean supply by about 1.5 million tons RDY, although USDA expects the total soybean supply to increase by only 1.5 million tons in 2003 / 2004, will have a profound impact on the psychological impact of global soybean traders RDY can see from the forecast data that soybean yield in the United States has increased significantly, which has increased the competitiveness of American soybean In the long run, soybean prices in the United States have room for reduction Even if there is no reduction, the increase may slow down to reflect its price competitiveness Therefore, the increase rate of American Soybean in 2003 may be lower than that of other regions in the world However, considering the devaluation of Brazil and Argentina due to financial turmoil in South America, the competitiveness of American soybean and South American soybean is basically in balance However, in the short term, the increase of soybean supply in South America will be relatively large The main reason is that last year's GM policy made China Brazil soybean trade involved in a complex trade deficit, which may lead to a large increase in Brazil's soybean exports in the short term Rdy Under the influence of the above two negative factors, the price trend of domestic soybean market after the festival is not optimistic With the continuous easing of the tension of transportation capacity of Northeast soybean railway after the festival, the spot price of soybean in Shandong Province, which is closest to the northeast, will fall significantly under the double influence of the significant increase of soybean imports from China and Brazil, thus affecting the price of soybean in China, but affected by the country Driven by the huge internal demand, the price drop is expected to be limited, and a small fluctuation may become the main trend of domestic soybean market development in the future Rdy