From the operation of overseas titanium dioxide factories to see the attack of domestic leading companies

 The development experience of the titanium dioxide industry in the past 10 years shows that every down week of the industry will be accompanied by substantial changes in the industry’s competitive landscape: the previous round was dominated by overcapacity due to the breakthrough of China’s sulfuric acid process for more than 5 years (2012~2016).
In the down cycle, a large number of overseas sulfuric acid production capacity withdrew, replaced by a substantial increase in China's total titanium dioxide production capacity, and the global share of China's titanium dioxide increased from 33% in 2011 to 45% in 2016.
In the most recent down cycle dominated by the inventory cycle since 2018, under the leadership of leading domestic companies represented by Lomon Bailey and China Nuclear Titanium Dioxide, they have further replaced overseas major companies through low-cost chlorination and clean sulfuric acid products.
Plant share.
The domestic industry's total production and sales, import and export, production and sales of leading enterprises, and overseas manufacturers' production and sales of multi-caliber data are mutually negotiated, thereby verifying that domestic leading companies are accelerating their market share.
The sales growth rates of the four major overseas manufacturers of Chemours, Tenor, Fannto and Connors in 2019 are -24%, -0.
2%, +7%, and +15% respectively, and the sales growth rates of 2020H1 are +5% respectively.
, -12%, -11% and -14%.
In the span of one and a half years, the sales of the four major overseas factories have generally declined.
Based on this calculation, the four major overseas factories in the last 1.
5 years The market share fell by about 6 percentage points, and the replacement speed of domestic enterprises was faster than the previous round.
In the face of business difficulties, major overseas factories have shown signs of strategic contraction.
Connors expects to close the 35,000-ton sulfuric acid titanium dioxide production line at the Leverkusen plant in Germany at the end of 2020 or early 2021.
Considering the natural growth of demand + substitution of overseas sulfuric acid method + substitution of overseas chlorination method + substitution of domestic sulfuric acid method small plants, Lomon Bailey believes that Lomon Bailey will gain an annual increase of 150,000 to 200,000 tons.
In the long term, taking 2027 as an example, assuming a compound demand growth rate of 2.
8% and an annual sales growth of 150,000 tons/year of Lomon, global consumption will reach 8 million tons/year in 2027.
20% of the market share, or 1.
6 million tons/year (more than 1.
2 million tons of Chemours is not the end).
   In the future, the economic recovery and the domestic leader's share will happen at the same time, and there is no contradiction.
Of course, there may be a period of time.
At present, the net profit margin of large overseas factories is less than 5% (of which Venator Venator loses), which means a net profit of RMB 1,000 per ton per ton, and operating rate of 70~90%.
In this case: suppose overseas large factories If the price is lowered by RMB 500/ton, net profit per ton will drop by half, and sales volume cannot increase by 100% under the bottleneck of production capacity.
The comprehensive profit cannot be higher than before the price reduction.
There is no profit.
Therefore, on the basis of not expanding and achieving higher current profits, large overseas factories must choose volume control and price protection.
As for the level of price protection, it depends on the final price game level of China's titanium dioxide; Even if the major overseas factories reduce the price by 1,000 yuan/ton, the price/performance ratio is still lower than that of domestic titanium dioxide, which is difficult to reverse the situation.