Live to be 130 years old?

For decades, the number of people surviving 100 has been on the rise, reaching nearly 500,000 worldwide

However, there are far fewer "super centenarians" who live to be 110 years old or longer

New research from the University of Washington shows that this extreme life expectancy may continue to rise slowly by the end of this century

The lead author of the study, Michael Pearce, a PhD student in statistics at the University of Washington, said: “People are attracted to extreme human behavior, whether it’s landing on the moon, how fast you run in the Olympics, or even a How long can people live

Longevity has an impact on government and economic policies, as well as individuals' own health care and life>

The new research, published in the June 30 issue of "Demographic Research", uses statistical models to test the extremes of human life

Pearce and Adrian Raftery, professor of sociology and statistics at the University of Washington, took a different approach

To calculate the probability of surviving 110 years old - and at what age - Raft and Pierce turned to the International Database on Longevity created by the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research.

Using Bayesian methods to estimate probabilities, the University of Washington research team predicted the maximum age of death reported from 2020 to 2100 in all 13 countries

The results of their research include:

• Researchers estimate that the currently recorded maximum age of death-Calment's 122 years and 164 days-has a nearly 100% chance of being broken;

• The probability that a person will live longer is still very high, to 124 years old (99% probability), or even to 127 years old (68% probability);

• Longer lifespan is possible, but the possibility is very small, the probability of someone living to 130 years old is only 13%;

• It is "extremely impossible" for someone to live to 135 years old in this century

  
  

In fact, super centenarians are an outlier, and only when the number of super centenarians increases significantly will the probability of breaking the current age record increase

Raft said that long-lived people are still very rare, and they can only represent specific groups of people

"No matter how old they are, once they live to 110, their mortality rate is still the same," Rafty said

"This is a group of very strong elites

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