Listed pig enterprises hand over "year-round rolls" "pig grass &r

The above 11 listed pig enterprises basically sold pigs in the range of 18.
5-20 yuan / kg in December last year, and they all fell sharply month-on-month
.
For example, the average sales price of commercial pigs in December 2022 was 18.
61 yuan/kg, down 20.
23% from November 2022; The average sales price of commercial pigs in New Hope in December was 18.
76 yuan/kg, down 19.
48%
from the previous month.
pdH-，

In December last year, the spot price of hogs fluctuated rapidly at the beginning of the month, and then rebounded slightly in late December, and the overall performance of pig prices weakened
.
According to data from Shangjia, the spot price of domestic pigs fell from about 22 yuan/kg in early December 2022 to 16.
86 yuan/kg at the end of the month, a decrease of about 30%.

In 2023, domestic pig prices still continue the trend since December last year, although supported by Spring Festival stocks, but market demand is weak, and pig prices are still insufficient momentum
.
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Feng Yonghui, an analyst at China Pig Early Warning Network, said that the current situation at both ends of supply and demand has reversed sharply, and the profit of a pig has changed from a profit of 1,000 yuan at the end of October to a loss of 300 yuan
now.
If it is a pig that has undergone secondary fattening, one may even lose nearly 1500 yuan
.
pdH-，

As the Spring Festival approaches, according to historical performance, pig consumption will also usher in the peak period
of the year.
After the new crown infection in major domestic cities peaks, is pig consumption expected to be boosted in the first quarter of this year, and how will the pattern of pig supply and demand evolve?pdH-，

According to Zhang Xiaojun, a pig analyst at Greenhua Futures, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the pig market in the first quarter of 2023 will continue
.
On the supply side, from the perspective of the breeding sow inventory, the breeding sow inventory in 2022 reached the lowest point of the year in April at 41.
77 million, and began to rise in May from seven consecutive months to 43.
88 million in November, theoretically corresponding to the increase in pig supply from March 2023
.
However, in the fourth quarter of 2022, the supply of the pig market increased as scheduled, and the consumption undertaking was obviously insufficient, resulting in forward supply pressure
.
In addition, a large number of secondary fattening entries around September last year led to a phased supply shift, superimposed on the seasonal increase in slaughter at the breeding end, and the increase in pig market supply before the Spring Festival may exceed market expectations
.
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"It is worth noting that the current Spring Festival is less than 10 days away, and the pressure on the breeding end to be slaughtered before the festival has increased
.
The group farm has increased the pace of slaughtering, retail investors and secondary fattening surplus large-weight pig sources continue to be slaughtered, the national pig trading average weight has continued to decline since mid-November 2022, it is expected that there is still room for further decline, and the market supply is expected to increase in the short term
.
Zhang Xiaojun said
.
pdH-，

Qin Duogui, an agricultural product analyst at Guoxin Futures, also said that since December last year, the number of pigs waiting to be slaughtered in China has increased significantly, which has brought additional supply pressure
to the market.
According to the current industry feedback, there are still some large fat pigs formed by secondary fattening have not been digested, these farmers have a certain price psychology due to the loss of pig prices are too low, trying to raise large fattening until after the Spring Festival, which will alleviate the selling pressure of the industry to a certain extent, but will also extend the time of market clearance, so that the post-holiday supply pressure improvement may be more limited
.
pdH-，

"In terms of consumption, the impact of the new crown epidemic in the fourth quarter of last year led to the failure of consumption expectations in the peak demand season
.
Under the impact of the peak of infection after the epidemic prevention and control turned in early December last year, the domestic catering industry recovered slowly, and household consumption was weaker than expected, especially the consumption of seasonal pickled enemas in the south ended hastily
.
Zhang Xiaojun said, but after New Year's Day this year, as the peak of infection in some areas passed, the impact of the epidemic gradually weakened, and household consumption and catering consumption in the northern region are continuing to recover
.
pdH-，

Qin Duogui believes that the rapid peak pressure on the consumption limit brought about by the adjustment of domestic epidemic prevention and control policies is slowly ending, but with the approach of the Spring Festival and the liberalization of entry, the rapid increase in population flow, and the recurrence in the later period is not excluded.

However, it has entered the final stage before the Spring Festival, and there is greater certainty that the demand for stocking will bring about a month-on-month increase in consumption
.
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Zhang Xiaojun further said that after the Spring Festival this year, pork will enter the seasonal consumption off-season, downstream consumption will also fall, at that time some pre-holiday supply pressure is still to be released, it is expected that after the completion of weight reduction at the breeding end and the continuous recovery of pig trading, the pattern of loose supply and demand of pigs will return to the relative balance
of supply and demand.
pdH-，