Limited space for soybean meal price to rise

Introduction: The oil world expects that due to the unusually low production of palm oil, cottonseed oil, rapeseed oil and aromatic oil in the world, the demand for soybean oil will increase Therefore, in order to meet the demand for soybean oil and increase the soybean crushing, the increase of soybean meal price will be restrained, because it will cause the rapid increase of soybean meal inventory, and the increase may exceed our expectation What's more, it will also restrain the rise of soybean price, because soybean meal is the main product of Soybean after all However, the shortage of palm oil, rapeseed oil, sunflower oil, aromatic oil and cottonseed oil will not last for a long time, because soybean meal is not easy to store, and it may eventually fall to the point where soybean production and / or crushing are not profitable, considering that the replacement of meat and bone meal will be close to the end by the end of 2002 There is a great chance of the situation From the above analysis, we can draw the following conclusion that the prices of many commodities will rise further in the next 9-10 months The only exception is sunflower seed oil, whose price has declined significantly due to the substantial growth of world sunflower seed production and pressing volume We expect that, especially after November or December, the price of sunflower oil will drop, because the Argentine crushers will start selling the new season of sunflower oil, which will put pressure on the price of sunflower oil Therefore, from July 2001 to June 2002, the price of sunflower seed oil is much higher than that of soybean oil From August 2002 to June 2003, the average increase of aromatic oil and palm oil is expected to be the highest compared with the average price in July 2002, followed by rapeseed oil and soybean oil The oil world forecasts the smallest increase in oil meal and grain prices, but the absolute increase is also considerable For oil meal, this is mainly due to the increase of soybean oil's share in the value of soybean products and the decrease of soybean meal's share This is because the supply shortage of soybean oil and vegetable oil is more serious than that of meal Of the three types of oilseeds, rapeseed is expected to have the strongest increase, followed by sunflower seeds and soybeans The CIF price of Argentine soybean in Rotterdam will increase to US $9, higher than US $6 from July 2001 to June 2002 Argentine soybean will be more competitive than US soybean, which is mainly due to the sharp decline of US soybean production and the substantial increase of Argentine soybean production in the next agricultural year.