Limited impact of avian influenza on Chinese market

Introduction: first, Beijing: the price of eggs is rising; Guangxi: the sales of chickens and ducks is not decreasing much; expert: three months after the Spring Festival is the off-season ESV of broiler sales In the face of the sudden bird flu, the capital market is also quietly changing: yesterday's reporter found in the Shenghe vegetable market in Chaoyang District that the fresh poultry stalls that used to be full of chickens and ducks have been "empty" According to the aunt of the nearby stall, the fresh poultry stall has received the notice from the market management department and is temporarily closed The reporter then saw the same situation in two other vegetable markets in Chaoyang District ESV live chicken and duck are hard to see, but the reporter also found that the price of eggs in the market has climbed to two dollars and seven kilograms, a few cents higher than the sales peak season before the year "There are fewer live chickens, but people eat more eggs every day," the egg seller told reporters as he sorted out the eggs "Of course, the price is going up." What kind of impact might ESV avian influenza have on the economy? The reporter had a variety of interviews yesterday ESV Beijing: Chen Yuanfeng, manager of the marketing planning department of Beijing Huadu Broiler, said that the export of Huadu Broiler has stopped since the official announcement of bird flu in Guangxi by CCTV a few days ago It is understood that, like Huadu, the export of domestic broiler enterprises is basically at a standstill However, as far as Dafa and Huadu, the two major broiler export enterprises in Beijing market, the pause in export did not cause economic losses to them temporarily ESV takes two major broiler export enterprises in Beijing as an example Dafa's production last year was about 90000 tons, of which 20000 tons were sold in Beijing market Huadu's production last year was about 50000 tons, of which 15000 tons were sold in Beijing market According to statistics, the annual demand of broilers in Beijing market is about 100000 tons, that is to say, in addition to 35000 tons of broilers in Dafa and Huadu, 65000 tons of market space is occupied by non local enterprises or small processing enterprises, which can be exploited by Dafa and Huadu Even if the consumption of ESV in the domestic market also drops sharply, large enterprises can avoid losses by temporarily freezing their products At - 18 ℃, the shelf life of broilers can reach one year, so the most obvious consequence of avian influenza to large enterprises is the increase of inventory In addition, three months after the Spring Festival every year is the off-season of broiler sales According to the production chain cycle of large enterprises, the breeding time of chickens is one and a half months, that is, one and a half months before the Spring Festival, large enterprises have reduced the breeding amount, so the loss is relatively small If avian influenza can not be controlled in a short period of time, they will reduce the amount of breeding in the next breeding cycle, and the loss of breeding can also be minimized ESV Guangxi: people who eat chicken and duck meat are still many ESV epidemic areas in Guangxi, Hunan, Hubei and other provinces Is the poultry industry shrinking in an all-round way? In the interview, the reporter found that this was not the case A person from the animal husbandry department of Guangxi aquatic products and Animal Husbandry Bureau told reporters that the sales of chicken and duck in Guangxi decreased slightly compared with the previous years ESV according to this person's analysis, because people will hoard a large number of annual goods before the Spring Festival, and the poultry market after the Spring Festival has been generally sold At the same time, it was found that Dingdang town of Long'an County, where the bird flu is found, is very remote, and the epidemic in some areas has not completely inhibited the mood of Guangxi people to eat chickens and ducks According to the statistics of the animal husbandry department of the Bureau, there are still many people who eat chicken and duck meat in Guangxi at present The sales of poultry in these days are only slightly lower than that after the Spring Festival last year ESV also stressed that Guangxi produces 600 thousand tons of poultry a year, most of which are sold in the province, and about 10% of the output is transported to Guangdong, Guizhou, Yunnan and Guangzhou Affected by the epidemic, the export has basically stopped, but poultry meat without the epidemic can be sold in the province ESV China: the impact of avian influenza on the market is limited An expert from the school of economics and management of China Agricultural University said that at present, avian influenza is only spread in a relatively small range in China, and there is no human infection, so its impact on the domestic economy is very limited ESV according to expert analysis, only in terms of the breeding industry, large enterprises have relatively good anti risk ability In the case of export blocked, broilers can be sold to the domestic market For small-scale farms and processing farms, it will be more serious challenges On the one hand, the consumption in the domestic market is temporarily decreasing, on the other hand, large export enterprises turn back to the domestic market, and the market share of small enterprises will sharply decrease In the case of live chickens, it is now forbidden to kill live chickens in the market If this situation lasts for a long time, some small farms may have to close down Experts said that due to the short time of bird flu, it is impossible to make a decision on how to adjust the response of small processing plants and small farms At the same time, although the provinces and cities that have not found the epidemic in theory can take the opportunity to play a "promotion card", but because of avian influenza, it is the overall consumption demand of poultry meat that is restrained As a result, there will be a slight decline in poultry sales in all regions However, this disadvantage is not obvious in the original off-season after the Spring Festival In addition, due to the timely and effective control measures, there is no bird flu that has affected tourism, catering and other industries ESV Asia: the outbreak of avian influenza has not caused economic crisis According to the prediction of standard & Poor's, the international famous rating agency of ESV, the impact of avian influenza on Asian economy is limited, and will not have a significant impact on this region's economy at this stage Rajanager, Secretary General of the Mekong region of the Asian Development Bank, said recently that the bird flu epidemic sweeping Asia has not yet caused an economic crisis, and if it can be quickly controlled, it will avoid economic recession If the bird flu epidemic in Asia is not effectively controlled, the losses will reach tens of billions of dollars According to the analysis of the ADB, avian influenza is the first threat, and the most serious threat is the rural market and population Because chicken is the main food in most Asian countries, especially in the poor rural population The demand of poor people for chicken is very high The large-scale epidemic of chicken industry will reduce the market supply of poultry The situation that the market supply is less than the demand will cause the price of poultry to rise, which will make the poorer consumers more seriously affected If effective measures are not taken, once the epidemic situation worsens, people may be afraid of flying, staying in hotels, shopping in shopping malls and going out for tourism, which will cause losses to tourism, catering industry and other related industries in a country or region, and the amount of losses is expected to reach tens of billions of dollars ESV