Liandou's Outlook: the change of supply and demand pattern will also hit a low

Introduction: first, the global soybean production is currently mainly produced in the United States, Brazil, Argentina and China In 2003 / 04, the global soybean production was 189 million tons, of which 168 million tons were produced in these four countries, accounting for 89% of the global share In 2004 / 05, the huge increase of soybean production in the United States and the comprehensive harvest of soybean in China have become a fact Under the influence of the current ideal climate conditions, Brazil and Argentina are also expected to achieve record soybean production, which makes the global soybean production possible to be as high as 230 million tons 1 Soybean production in the United States The United States is the largest soybean producer in the world In 2003 / 04, the soybean output was 65.8 million tons, accounting for 35% of the global soybean output According to the data released by the United States Department of agriculture (USDA), it is estimated that the soybean planting area in 2004 / 05 will reach 75.1 million acres, with an average yield of 42.6 bushels / acre, and the output of 85.74 million tons, an increase of 30% over the previous year 2 Soybean production in Brazil and Argentina Since the early 1990s, the soybean production of Brazil and Argentina in South America has risen rapidly In 2002 / 03, the total soybean production of Brazil and Argentina surpassed that of the United States for the first time, becoming the world's No.1 soybean production area By 2003 / 04, the soybean production of Brazil and Argentina reached 52.6 million tons and 34 million tons respectively, accounting for 46% of the global soybean production According to American agriculture According to the forecast of the Ministry of industry, the soybean production of Brazil and Argentina in 2004 / 05 is expected to continue to set the record of the highest production in the two countries, reaching 64.5 million tons and 39 million tons respectively, an increase of 23% and 15% compared with the previous year At present, Brazil's soybean planting work has been basically completed, and Argentina's soybean planting work has been completed by 90% Since the seeding work was carried out, Brazil and Argentina's main soybean producing areas have basically maintained favorable weather conditions, which is very conducive to soybean planting and growth According to this development trend, the increase of soybean production in South America is expected to be basically realized Two Global soybean demand With the development of global economy, population growth and the development of animal husbandry, oil extraction and processing industry, the consumption demand of soybean has been growing rapidly in recent years According to the global soybean consumption in the last decade, the annual average global consumption is increasing by 5% In 2003 / 04, the total global soybean consumption reached 191 million tons, according to the Department of agriculture of the United States It is predicted that the global soybean consumption in 2004 / 05 will reach 208 million tons, an increase of 8.9% over the previous year At present, the main consumption areas of soybeans in the world are concentrated in the United States, Brazil, Argentina, China and the European Union The consumption of soybeans in these five countries and regions accounts for 80% of the total consumption of soybeans in the world In 2003 / 04, American soybean consumption was still the first in the world, accounting for 23% of the world's total soybean consumption The main consumption purpose of American soybean was squeezing, accounting for more than 90% of the total soybean consumption From 1991 to 2004, American soybean squeezing kept an average annual growth rate of 2.34% In addition, China accounted for 18% of the world's total soybean consumption, while Brazil, Argentina and the European Union accounted for respectively According to 17%, 14% and 9% of the world soybean consumption The United States, Brazil and Argentina are the world's most important soybean exporting countries in addition to meeting their own needs China and the European Union are the most important soybean importing regions because most of their soybean consumption depends on imports 　　 Among the major consumer countries and regions, China's soybean demand has been extremely concerned by the market The main reason is that the rapid development of China's economy has brought China's strong demand for soybean products In the past decade, China's soybean imports accounted for a rapid increase in the total volume of world trade, becoming the world's largest soybean importing country In 2002 / 03, China's soybean imports The volume reached 18.2 million tons, accounting for 30% of the world's total soybean imports In 2003 / 04, China still maintained a 30% share of the world's total soybean imports, but the absolute volume decreased to only 16.9 million tons According to the forecast of the U.S Department of agriculture, China's soybean import will reach 22 million tons in 2004 / 05, but from the current market situation, there are great variables to achieve such import volume The main reason is that since May this year, China has increased the control of macro tightening policy, and the tightening of domestic monetary policy, which has made the capital turnover of some squeezing enterprises happen Difficulties, coupled with the weak demand of domestic feed industry, many crushing enterprises slowed down the pace of soybean import According to the latest data released by the customs, China imported only 18.03 million tons of soybeans from January to November, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.9% in the first 11 months With the increase of soybean production in China, the further deepening of macro-control and the lack of improvement of feed industry, it is expected that China's import of soybean in 2004 / 05 new year will probably decrease, at least not increase significantly 3 Global soybean inventory In recent years, soybean inventory has been rising steadily According to the statistics of the U.S Department of agriculture, the ending inventory of global soybeans in 2003 / 04 reached 36.19 million tons This year, under the background of the sharp increase of soybean production in the United States and the expected increase of soybean production in South America, the U.S Department of agriculture expects that the ending carry over inventory of global soybeans in 2004 / 05 will be as high as 60.57 million tons, compared with the previous year It is expected to increase by 67%, among which the inventory level of the United States, the world's largest soybean producer, will increase to 12.53 million tons from 2.87 million tons in 2003 / 04, while that of Brazil and Argentina will increase to 22.46 million tons and 17.77 million tons from 15.85 million tons and 12.46 million tons in the previous year, respectively The sharp increase of soybean carry over inventory reflects that the global soybean supply and demand pattern is undergoing fundamental changes While the soybean production in the United States is increasing sharply and the soybean production in South America is expected to increase substantially, the demand in the global soybean market is not growing synchronously, which leads to the gradual change of the supply-demand relationship from short supply in 2003 to over supply at present 4 Other main factors affecting soybean price 1 Weather conditions in main soybean producing areas in South America at present, Brazil's soybean planting has been basically completed, and Argentina's soybean planting has been completed by 90% The development of weather and rust in the next month will have a direct impact on soybean growth and yield Since the beginning of the planting season, the climate conditions in the main soybean producing areas in South America have been relatively suitable Although the areas where rust is detected in Brazil have spread to 8 states, which brings uncertain factors to soybean production in the future, however, due to the ideal growth conditions in South America, there is still a great possibility of increasing production in the future 2 Chinese and American farmers' reluctance to sell For American soybean farmers, the price of 1000 cents of soybeans before half a year is still vivid Now, only half a year later, they will be forced to cut back on the sale Of course, they hope that with the end of the pressure on American soybean harvest, the price will pick up, resulting in a reluctant to sell mentality More importantly, for American soybean farmers, they can also be subsidized by the loan of American government Under this subsidy policy, no matter how low the spot price of soybean falls, soybean farmers can still get an average income of 495 cents per bushel Therefore, even if the soybean price continues to fall sharply in the later period, they can get almost the same income as it is now If the price rises in the later period, they can still get more income than it is now From the domestic point of view, due to the lack of inventory level of most oil plants, it is necessary to expand the purchasing quantity, coupled with farmers' reluctance to sell, the purchase price of soybeans in Northeast China has risen, and the state of waiting for the market price to go higher after the rising price of the initial payment of soybeans is widespread, which also causes the situation of not eager to sell However, it is also temporary for bean farmers to be reluctant to sell On the one hand, not selling beans takes up a lot of money, on the other hand, they have to bear extra storage costs Moreover, the ultimate goal of farmers is to convert their soybean into cash After the farmers have a full understanding of the overall supply and demand situation, this mentality of reluctant to sell will change In this way, there will be a soybean market in the later stage The potential risk of centralized sale, the overall postponement of centralized listing of soybeans will make the later market face greater supply pressure, and the situation of falling and selling more easily appears 3 At present, soybean rust has been found in 9 states in the United States According to statistics, in 2004, soybean production in these States accounted for about 15% of that in the United States Although soybean rust no longer affects the harvested soybean this year, the planting cost of soybean in the new year may increase, which may affect the planting area of soybean next year, and the unit yield may also be seriously damaged Although there are still large variables in this expectation, which need further observation, it is likely to become the market of soybean next year Important themes Fifthly, under the background of the sharp increase in soybean production in the United States, the expected large increase in soybean production in South America, and the lack of synchronous growth in global demand, the world soybean supply and demand pattern is quietly changing In 2003, under the influence of many factors such as the sharp reduction of soybean production in the United States, the influence of bad weather and strong global demand on Brazil's new soybean crops, the soybean price accelerated from 2600 yuan in August 2003 to 4000 yuan in April 2004 However, the market situation has changed dramatically in 2004 While the world's soybean production has increased substantially, the demand has declined Especially as the world's largest soybean importer, China's import demand for soybeans has declined significantly Moreover, the increase of import cost brought about by the increase of interest rate at the end of October, and then the increase and pressure of soybean crushing cost The squeeze of profit makes the demand for soybeans in the international market more complicated, and the change of supply and demand situation leads to the return of soybean price from 4100 yuan in April 2004 to 2600 yuan in December 2004 Looking forward to 2005, 1 and February will be the key growth period of soybean crops If the weather in the main soybean producing area of South America is not smooth or affected by diseases and pests, then the price may rebound, but the space for rebound will not be large, because even if there is a small amount of soybean production reduction in South America, it will not help to improve the situation of oversupply in the soybean market With good weather conditions and no plant diseases, the expectation of soybean yield increase is likely to come true, and the price will reach a new low