Liandou: geometry of import recovery effect

Introduction: China has recently allowed the first shipment of imported soybeans since the GMOs came into force to be unloaded at Chinese ports How much influence the recovery of soybean import will have on the domestic soybean price trend will become the focus of the market Some people think that the arrival date of imported soybeans is the time when the domestic soybean price falls However, the author believes that the resumption of soybean import will not have a great impact on the price of soybean 1 First of all, the recovery market for imports has long been expected Since the issuance of import licenses at the end of April, there have been rumors about soybean recovery The market generally expects the recovery of imports to be around June Now, the recovery of soybean imports is fully expected by the market On April 11 and 12, influenced by the news of issuance of temporary genetically modified safety certificate, domestic soybean futures prices fell sharply for two consecutive days, but then the market rose in a wave, indicating that the negative effect of import recovery expectation has been digested In the case of market expectations, the impact of import recovery on the market will be limited 5pc 2 The import volume is limited, and the supply is still tight At present, the import soybean inventory of domestic ports is far less than that of last year, and the soybean inventory of oil processing enterprises in various regions has dropped to the lowest level since this year This month, the Ministry of agriculture predicted that soybean imports will remain at 9 million tons in the market year (October 2001 to September 2002) From October 2001 to April 2002, China has imported nearly 6 million tons of soybeans According to this calculation, in the remaining three and a half months of the market year, the total amount of imports is about 4 million At present, the monthly pressing capacity of soybean in China is about 1.8 million tons Compared with the domestic demand, it is estimated that the supply of soybean market in China is still tight in the near future At the same time, the batch issuance of import license and the limitation of validity period will not cause the phenomenon of import soybean swarming into China At present, the cost of imported soybeans is very high, and the domestic price will not change much In recent years, Brazil and Argentina, the main soybean producing countries in South America, are still suffering from political and economic turmoil, which has hindered soybean exports, and their spot market prices have generally increased; while in the United States, due to adverse climate factors in soybean producing areas, the prices have also increased It is not expected that the international price will fall sharply in the short term, and the recovery of China's imports will play a supporting role in the international soybean price According to the data of the State Grain and oil information center on June 11, the CNF price of South American soybeans shipped in July and August to China is 220 US dollars / ton, and the port duty paid price is about 2200 yuan / ton At present, the contract price of CBOT soybean in July is basically maintained at 500 cents / PU type ear, which is about 2150 when it is converted to the domestic port duty paid price, which has increased by more than 10% compared with the price in February, while the domestic futures price remains at the price level in February It can be seen that the cut-off of imports does not make the futures prices rise sharply, and the recovery of imports will not have a great impact on the futures prices 5pc from the above analysis, it is not difficult to see that the import recovery will not have a big impact on the period price, but the psychological pressure of import recovery on the market impact should be said to exist The recovery of soybean import indicates that the imbalance of supply and demand in the domestic market will be improved Meanwhile, the hype about the shortage of imports in the early stage is also over Another impact of the resumption of imports is that the relevance of domestic and foreign markets will be further enhanced In the previous period, the disconnection of imports cut off the linkage between domestic market and foreign futures market to a certain extent With the recovery of imports, it can be expected that domestic and foreign market prices will be closely related again