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Pork has always been a "regular"
on the public table.
Looking back at the trend of pig prices this year, it can be described as a twist and turn, pig prices have experienced troughs and climbed to peaks; Pig farming has experienced huge losses and has turned a profit, and demand at the end of the year has once again become the last straw that overwhelmed the camel, so can pig prices return to the rally in 2023?
Looking back at the trend of pig prices throughout the year, from early January to mid-March, the average pig price fell from 15.
0 yuan/kg to 11.
9 yuan/kg, and only a slight correction
occurred in late February.
With the emergence of multiple central storage and storage boosting effects, the supply and demand of superimposed production capacity tended to balance, and pig prices stabilized and rebounded from early April to the end of June, reaching 18.
3 yuan / kg in late June, and the industry basically entered the break-even point
.
The rapid rise in pig prices after the third quarter once caused the industry to fluctuate
.
Especially after the National Day holiday, the average pig price in mid-October rose to the highest point of the year, reaching 27.
7 yuan / kg
.
However, with the release of frozen meat reserves and the impact of the downturn in consumption, pig prices entered a downward channel again, and pig prices fell to 18.
2 yuan/kg
in mid-December.
It took only two months to fall back to the level of the second quarter, down 34.
40%
from the year's high.
According to public data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in the fourth week of December, the prices of pigs, pork and piglets in 30 monitoring provinces across the country all fell, and the national average pig price was 18.
91 yuan / kg, down 11.
8% from the previous week and up 10.
8% year-on-year; The national pork price was 33.
96 yuan/kg, down 6.
2% from the previous week and up 21.
2% year-on-year; The national piglet price was 38.
84 yuan/kg, down 5.
7% from the previous week and up 39.
7%
year-on-year.
"The overall supply situation this year has increased slightly, so the average price this year is in a slight decline compared with last year
.
Last year's average price was 20.
5 yuan/kg, and this year's average price should be 19 yuan/kg
.
In terms of profitability, this year is a normal profit state, each 120 kg of fat pigs, the profit is about
300 yuan.
Zhu Zengyong, chief analyst of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs for monitoring and early warning of the whole pork industry chain and researcher of the Beijing Institute of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, said
in an interview with the China Times.
Pig prices fluctuate throughout the year
It is understood that in the first half of this year, there was oversupply, and in the second half of the year, it changed from tight supply to basic balance of supply
.
Among them, the characteristics of oversupply in the second quarter of this year are more obvious, and the supply turned into a phased tight
supply in the third quarter.
From the perspective of price trends, the first half of this year is in a downward trend, and the second half of the year is generally in a volatile rise, of which the third quarter showed a phased rapid rise
.
"This year's price increase is divided into several stages, the first stage is the stage of stopping the decline and stabilizing, starting from the beginning of April and ending in June, basically entering the break-even point
.
Therefore, from June to July, there was a first wave of phased rapid increases, and pig prices returned above the cost line; The second phased rapid rise was from September to October, during which it showed the characteristics of
phased tight supply.
Among them, October was clearly affected by market sentiment, resulting in a phased supply imbalance
.
Zhu Zengyong said
.
For the sharp fluctuations in pig prices in the second half of the year, Zhu Zengyong pointed out that the rise in pig prices in September and the decline in pig prices in mid-December were both over-rising and over-falling
.
"Due to the low pig price in the third quarter of last year, the production capacity of breeding sows in the third quarter of last year was reduced
rapidly.
At the same time, the overall liquidity of farms and enterprises above the scale last year was affected by the decline in pig prices, and some farms eliminated sows to be
slaughtered.
Therefore, after 10 months, from June this year to September this year, the corresponding supply is characterized
by a phased tight supply.
In October, it was more affected by the secondary fattening in August and September, resulting in a tight supply and demand situation in October
.
It can be said that it was market sentiment that affected the supply
of commercial pigs in October.
Zhu Zengyong further explained
.
The recent rapid decline in pig prices is due
to the increase in slaughter.
On the one hand, at the end of October, the pig price rose to 27 yuan / kg, whether it is normal breeding or secondary fattening, it is very profitable; On the other hand, with the increase of the investment of reserve meat at the central and local levels, the bullish sentiment in the market has loosened, so the amount of slaughter began to increase
at the end of October and the beginning of November.
"In November, when both standard pigs and secondary fattening pigs began to be slaughtered, the overall slaughter volume increased, and the slaughter increased by more than 8% compared with October, resulting in pig prices starting to fall
.
After entering December, many farmers who had expected to increase prices in December, without seeing the pig price rise, panic selling exacerbated the decline in pig prices, so there was a rapid and sharp decline in pig prices around the middle of December, with a cumulative decline of about 20%
in two weeks.
And from the perspective of consumption, affected by the epidemic, out-going consumption and household consumption in December were still in a sluggish state, while supply increased significantly in December, and in some cases it was even higher than the same period
last year.
Zhu Zengyong told
the "China Times" reporter.
Macro-control has been strengthened
The recent rapid decline in pig prices has not only affected the sensitive nerves of farmers, but also attracted the attention
of regulators.
On December 21, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that in response to the recent rapid decline in domestic pig prices, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission recently organized a video conference to listen to the opinions of industry experts and some market institutions, and study the work
of ensuring supply and price stability in the market.
And will continue to pay close attention to market supply and demand and price dynamics, and take reserve adjustment measures such as storage and collection when necessary to promote the long-term healthy development of
the pig market.
It is worth noting that since the beginning of this year, the National Development and Reform Commission has always attached great importance to the supply and demand and price situation of the pig market, and is committed to ensuring supply and price stability.
On March 3 and 4, China Commercial Reserve Commodity Management Center Co.
, Ltd.
carried out the first and second batch of central reserve frozen pork collection and storage in 2022, with a total listing volume of 40,000 tons
.
Since then, from March to June, the state has carried out a total of 16 central reserve frozen pork collection and storage work this year, with a cumulative listing volume of more than 500,000 tons
.
Until pork prices return to the normal range, the collection and storage of frozen pork in the central reserve will be stopped
accordingly.
On July 4, the National Development and Reform Commission held a special meeting on ensuring supply and price stability in the pig market, pointing out that the recent rapid rise in domestic pig prices is due to the irrational phenomenon of selling and secondary fattening in the market, and some media, especially self-media, fabricate and disseminate price increase information and exaggerate the atmosphere of price increase, which has aggravated the market reluctance to sell in the short term
.
Since then, the National Development and Reform Commission has studied and launched the release of central pork reserves, and guided local governments to release reserves in a timely manner to form a joint force of regulation and control to prevent excessive rise in pig prices
.
In fact, with the rapid rise in pig prices in September, the first batch of frozen pork from the central reserve was put on the market on September 8, with a listing volume of 37,700 tons
.
Since then, a total of seven batches of frozen pork from the central reserve have been put into operation in 2022, with a total listing volume of more than 130,000 tons
.
Among them, during September, the national central reserve frozen pork was basically maintained at a weekly rhythm
.
And the National Development and Reform Commission will guide local development and reform commissions to increase the government's pork reserves
.
According to statistics, in September, the state and various localities put a total of about 200,000 tons of government pork reserves, and the monthly release reached the highest level in history, and the price was lower than the market price
.
"The storage and storage that lasted from March to June 24 delayed the decline in pig prices, partly contributed to the rebound in pig prices in early April and continued until June
.
The release of storage in September and October was mainly due to the rise in pig prices caused by the tight supply of stages, although from the pig-to-food ratio, it did not reach the starting value, but from the year-on-year increase of lean pork in 36 large and medium-sized cities, October has risen to more than 40%.
Therefore, the National Development and Reform Commission launched the launch, which played a relatively good role
in ensuring supply and stabilizing prices.
Zhu Zengyong pointed out that compared with the previous cycle, since the African swine fever, the frequency and intensity of policy regulation and control have increased, and have played a role in quotation marks on market sentiment
.
Hong Tao, president of China Food (Agricultural Products) Safety E-commerce Research Institute, suggested to the "China Times" reporter that in addition to the national macro price control, it is more important to promote the formation of pig industry chain, supply chain, value chain, interest chain, technology chain, and ecological chain (circle), so as to maintain the stability of the pig industry and ensure the stability
of prices.
The future of the hog market is promising
Under the trend of pig prices, the pig breeding industry will also have ups and downs
in 2022.
Affected by the low pig prices, all major pig enterprises fell into the quagmire of losses during the first quarter, of which the four major pig enterprises have lost more than 10 billion
.
Until the continuous recovery of pig prices in the second quarter, Wenshi and Tianbang Food took the lead in turning losses into profits in the second quarter, and listed pig enterprises such as Makihara and New Hope also narrowed their losses
.
As pig prices enter a rapid rising channel, many pig enterprises report good results in the third quarter, and profits have increased significantly
.
Among them, the quarterly net profit of 8.
196 billion yuan of "Pig Mao" Makihara has run out of tenfold growth, while the net profit of pig enterprises such as Wen's Shares, Tianbang Food, Tang Renshen and New Hope has increased by more than 1 times
year-on-year.
Although hog prices have fallen again recently, many pork stocks have not fallen but risen
.
As of the close of trading on December 27, Dabeinong rose to the limit, Aonong Biotech rose 2.
72%, Wen shares rose 1.
85%, Makihara shares rose 1.
22%, and New Hope rose 1.
08%.
Among them, Wen's shares closed at 19.
78 yuan / share, which has risen by 17.
88%
since hitting a stage low of 16.
78 yuan / share at the end of November.
However, compared with the yearly high of 26.
15 yuan / share in early July, it has fallen by 24.
36%.
According to the relevant data of the flush, the reporter of the "China Times" found that the stock price trend of listed pig enterprises in 2022 is clearly differentiated, of which Guanghong Holdings and Superstar Agriculture and Animal Husbandry all rose by 50%, Superstar Agriculture and Animal Husbandry became the brightest pork stocks with a 59.
70% increase, and the troubled Zhengbang Technology ranked bottom
with a decline of 53.
73%.
Among the top pig enterprises, New Hope, Makihara shares and Tianbang Food fell by 13.
87%, 7.
53% and 3.
73% during the year, and Wen's shares rose by 3.
24%.
It is worth mentioning that there is currently no lack of institutional analysis, the current sow production capacity growth is limited, it is expected that pig prices will continue to be high next year, the average profit and valuation space of pig enterprises is expected to open, and the value of the pig sector is highlighted
.
At the same time, a number of listed pig companies have maintained a cautious optimism about pig prices next year
.
Wen shares disclosed in the investor relations activity that it is understood that the current industry replenishment is more rational, and with the pig price correction, the industry replenishment is more cautious
.
In terms of free-range farmers, the African swine fever epidemic is still in a scattered point state, which from time to time interferes with the normal production of the industry, and the technology and experience of disease prevention and control of small and medium-sized free-range farmers are lacking
.
And pig prices fluctuate greatly, breeding costs and inputs have increased significantly, and some free-range farmers have withdrawn from the industry
.
In terms of large enterprises, at this stage, some large enterprises have steadily expanded production, but they are also more cautious and more rational
overall.
In summary, from the current situation, the industry supplement is more cautious, may support next year's pig prices, the company is optimistic about next
year's pig price market.
New Hope said on the interactive platform that the company expects the industry's production capacity to further increase next year, which will bring pig prices down, but because the capacity base is not particularly large, the annual average price may not be lower than this year
.
For the future trend of pig prices, Zhu Zengyong believes that as the epidemic improves, consumption will play a boosting role, especially the seasonal consumption growth
that will occur before the Spring Festival and New Year's Day.
However, the peak of the pen itself in December and January, and the large pigs in the pen have not been completely cleared, so the pig price may have a seasonal rebound before the holiday, but the space and magnitude of the rebound should not be large
.
After the Spring Festival, pig prices may fall
seasonally.
"For 2023, the overall pig price is expected to be above the cost line and maintain a normal profit level, so the future should be full of
confidence for farmers.
" Zhu Zengyong said
.
;
;Pork has always been a "regular"
on the public table.
Looking back at the trend of pig prices this year, it can be described as a twist and turn, pig prices have experienced troughs and climbed to peaks; Pig farming has experienced huge losses and has turned a profit, and demand at the end of the year has once again become the last straw that overwhelmed the camel, so can pig prices return to the rally in 2023?
Looking back at the trend of pig prices throughout the year, from early January to mid-March, the average pig price fell from 15.
0 yuan/kg to 11.
9 yuan/kg, and only a slight correction
occurred in late February.
With the emergence of multiple central storage and storage boosting effects, the supply and demand of superimposed production capacity tended to balance, and pig prices stabilized and rebounded from early April to the end of June, reaching 18.
3 yuan / kg in late June, and the industry basically entered the break-even point
.
The rapid rise in pig prices after the third quarter once caused the industry to fluctuate
.
Especially after the National Day holiday, the average pig price in mid-October rose to the highest point of the year, reaching 27.
7 yuan / kg
.
However, with the release of frozen meat reserves and the impact of the downturn in consumption, pig prices entered a downward channel again, and pig prices fell to 18.
2 yuan/kg
in mid-December.
It took only two months to fall back to the level of the second quarter, down 34.
40%
from the year's high.
According to public data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in the fourth week of December, the prices of pigs, pork and piglets in 30 monitoring provinces across the country all fell, and the national average pig price was 18.
91 yuan / kg, down 11.
8% from the previous week and up 10.
8% year-on-year; The national pork price was 33.
96 yuan/kg, down 6.
2% from the previous week and up 21.
2% year-on-year; The national piglet price was 38.
84 yuan/kg, down 5.
7% from the previous week and up 39.
7%
year-on-year.
"The overall supply situation this year has increased slightly, so the average price this year is in a slight decline compared with last year
.
Last year's average price was 20.
5 yuan/kg, and this year's average price should be 19 yuan/kg
.
In terms of profitability, this year is a normal profit state, each 120 kg of fat pigs, the profit is about
300 yuan.
Zhu Zengyong, chief analyst of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs for monitoring and early warning of the whole pork industry chain and researcher of the Beijing Institute of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, said
in an interview with the China Times.
Pig prices fluctuate throughout the year
Pig prices fluctuate throughout the yearIt is understood that in the first half of this year, there was oversupply, and in the second half of the year, it changed from tight supply to basic balance of supply
.
Among them, the characteristics of oversupply in the second quarter of this year are more obvious, and the supply turned into a phased tight
supply in the third quarter.
From the perspective of price trends, the first half of this year is in a downward trend, and the second half of the year is generally in a volatile rise, of which the third quarter showed a phased rapid rise
.
"This year's price increase is divided into several stages, the first stage is the stage of stopping the decline and stabilizing, starting from the beginning of April and ending in June, basically entering the break-even point
.
Therefore, from June to July, there was a first wave of phased rapid increases, and pig prices returned above the cost line; The second phased rapid rise was from September to October, during which it showed the characteristics of
phased tight supply.
Among them, October was clearly affected by market sentiment, resulting in a phased supply imbalance
.
Zhu Zengyong said
.
For the sharp fluctuations in pig prices in the second half of the year, Zhu Zengyong pointed out that the rise in pig prices in September and the decline in pig prices in mid-December were both over-rising and over-falling
.
"Due to the low pig price in the third quarter of last year, the production capacity of breeding sows in the third quarter of last year was reduced
rapidly.
At the same time, the overall liquidity of farms and enterprises above the scale last year was affected by the decline in pig prices, and some farms eliminated sows to be
slaughtered.
Therefore, after 10 months, from June this year to September this year, the corresponding supply is characterized
by a phased tight supply.
In October, it was more affected by the secondary fattening in August and September, resulting in a tight supply and demand situation in October
.
It can be said that it was market sentiment that affected the supply
of commercial pigs in October.
Zhu Zengyong further explained
.
The recent rapid decline in pig prices is due
to the increase in slaughter.
On the one hand, at the end of October, the pig price rose to 27 yuan / kg, whether it is normal breeding or secondary fattening, it is very profitable; On the other hand, with the increase of the investment of reserve meat at the central and local levels, the bullish sentiment in the market has loosened, so the amount of slaughter began to increase
at the end of October and the beginning of November.
"In November, when both standard pigs and secondary fattening pigs began to be slaughtered, the overall slaughter volume increased, and the slaughter increased by more than 8% compared with October, resulting in pig prices starting to fall
.
After entering December, many farmers who had expected to increase prices in December, without seeing the pig price rise, panic selling exacerbated the decline in pig prices, so there was a rapid and sharp decline in pig prices around the middle of December, with a cumulative decline of about 20%
in two weeks.
And from the perspective of consumption, affected by the epidemic, out-going consumption and household consumption in December were still in a sluggish state, while supply increased significantly in December, and in some cases it was even higher than the same period
last year.
Zhu Zengyong told
the "China Times" reporter.
Macro-control has been strengthened
Macro-control has been strengthenedThe recent rapid decline in pig prices has not only affected the sensitive nerves of farmers, but also attracted the attention
of regulators.
On December 21, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that in response to the recent rapid decline in domestic pig prices, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission recently organized a video conference to listen to the opinions of industry experts and some market institutions, and study the work
of ensuring supply and price stability in the market.
And will continue to pay close attention to market supply and demand and price dynamics, and take reserve adjustment measures such as storage and collection when necessary to promote the long-term healthy development of
the pig market.
It is worth noting that since the beginning of this year, the National Development and Reform Commission has always attached great importance to the supply and demand and price situation of the pig market, and is committed to ensuring supply and price stability.
On March 3 and 4, China Commercial Reserve Commodity Management Center Co.
, Ltd.
carried out the first and second batch of central reserve frozen pork collection and storage in 2022, with a total listing volume of 40,000 tons
.
Since then, from March to June, the state has carried out a total of 16 central reserve frozen pork collection and storage work this year, with a cumulative listing volume of more than 500,000 tons
.
Until pork prices return to the normal range, the collection and storage of frozen pork in the central reserve will be stopped
accordingly.
On July 4, the National Development and Reform Commission held a special meeting on ensuring supply and price stability in the pig market, pointing out that the recent rapid rise in domestic pig prices is due to the irrational phenomenon of selling and secondary fattening in the market, and some media, especially self-media, fabricate and disseminate price increase information and exaggerate the atmosphere of price increase, which has aggravated the market reluctance to sell in the short term
.
Since then, the National Development and Reform Commission has studied and launched the release of central pork reserves, and guided local governments to release reserves in a timely manner to form a joint force of regulation and control to prevent excessive rise in pig prices
.
In fact, with the rapid rise in pig prices in September, the first batch of frozen pork from the central reserve was put on the market on September 8, with a listing volume of 37,700 tons
.
Since then, a total of seven batches of frozen pork from the central reserve have been put into operation in 2022, with a total listing volume of more than 130,000 tons
.
Among them, during September, the national central reserve frozen pork was basically maintained at a weekly rhythm
.
And the National Development and Reform Commission will guide local development and reform commissions to increase the government's pork reserves
.
According to statistics, in September, the state and various localities put a total of about 200,000 tons of government pork reserves, and the monthly release reached the highest level in history, and the price was lower than the market price
.
"The storage and storage that lasted from March to June 24 delayed the decline in pig prices, partly contributed to the rebound in pig prices in early April and continued until June
.
The release of storage in September and October was mainly due to the rise in pig prices caused by the tight supply of stages, although from the pig-to-food ratio, it did not reach the starting value, but from the year-on-year increase of lean pork in 36 large and medium-sized cities, October has risen to more than 40%.
Therefore, the National Development and Reform Commission launched the launch, which played a relatively good role
in ensuring supply and stabilizing prices.
Zhu Zengyong pointed out that compared with the previous cycle, since the African swine fever, the frequency and intensity of policy regulation and control have increased, and have played a role in quotation marks on market sentiment
.
Hong Tao, president of China Food (Agricultural Products) Safety E-commerce Research Institute, suggested to the "China Times" reporter that in addition to the national macro price control, it is more important to promote the formation of pig industry chain, supply chain, value chain, interest chain, technology chain, and ecological chain (circle), so as to maintain the stability of the pig industry and ensure the stability
of prices.
The future of the hog market is promising
The future of the hog market is promisingUnder the trend of pig prices, the pig breeding industry will also have ups and downs
in 2022.
Affected by the low pig prices, all major pig enterprises fell into the quagmire of losses during the first quarter, of which the four major pig enterprises have lost more than 10 billion
.
Until the continuous recovery of pig prices in the second quarter, Wenshi and Tianbang Food took the lead in turning losses into profits in the second quarter, and listed pig enterprises such as Makihara and New Hope also narrowed their losses
.
As pig prices enter a rapid rising channel, many pig enterprises report good results in the third quarter, and profits have increased significantly
.
Among them, the quarterly net profit of 8.
196 billion yuan of "Pig Mao" Makihara has run out of tenfold growth, while the net profit of pig enterprises such as Wen's Shares, Tianbang Food, Tang Renshen and New Hope has increased by more than 1 times
year-on-year.
Although hog prices have fallen again recently, many pork stocks have not fallen but risen
.
As of the close of trading on December 27, Dabeinong rose to the limit, Aonong Biotech rose 2.
72%, Wen shares rose 1.
85%, Makihara shares rose 1.
22%, and New Hope rose 1.
08%.
Among them, Wen's shares closed at 19.
78 yuan / share, which has risen by 17.
88%
since hitting a stage low of 16.
78 yuan / share at the end of November.
However, compared with the yearly high of 26.
15 yuan / share in early July, it has fallen by 24.
36%.
According to the relevant data of the flush, the reporter of the "China Times" found that the stock price trend of listed pig enterprises in 2022 is clearly differentiated, of which Guanghong Holdings and Superstar Agriculture and Animal Husbandry all rose by 50%, Superstar Agriculture and Animal Husbandry became the brightest pork stocks with a 59.
70% increase, and the troubled Zhengbang Technology ranked bottom
with a decline of 53.
73%.
Among the top pig enterprises, New Hope, Makihara shares and Tianbang Food fell by 13.
87%, 7.
53% and 3.
73% during the year, and Wen's shares rose by 3.
24%.
It is worth mentioning that there is currently no lack of institutional analysis, the current sow production capacity growth is limited, it is expected that pig prices will continue to be high next year, the average profit and valuation space of pig enterprises is expected to open, and the value of the pig sector is highlighted
.
At the same time, a number of listed pig companies have maintained a cautious optimism about pig prices next year
.
Wen shares disclosed in the investor relations activity that it is understood that the current industry replenishment is more rational, and with the pig price correction, the industry replenishment is more cautious
.
In terms of free-range farmers, the African swine fever epidemic is still in a scattered point state, which from time to time interferes with the normal production of the industry, and the technology and experience of disease prevention and control of small and medium-sized free-range farmers are lacking
.
And pig prices fluctuate greatly, breeding costs and inputs have increased significantly, and some free-range farmers have withdrawn from the industry
.
In terms of large enterprises, at this stage, some large enterprises have steadily expanded production, but they are also more cautious and more rational
overall.
In summary, from the current situation, the industry supplement is more cautious, may support next year's pig prices, the company is optimistic about next
year's pig price market.
New Hope said on the interactive platform that the company expects the industry's production capacity to further increase next year, which will bring pig prices down, but because the capacity base is not particularly large, the annual average price may not be lower than this year
.
For the future trend of pig prices, Zhu Zengyong believes that as the epidemic improves, consumption will play a boosting role, especially the seasonal consumption growth
that will occur before the Spring Festival and New Year's Day.
However, the peak of the pen itself in December and January, and the large pigs in the pen have not been completely cleared, so the pig price may have a seasonal rebound before the holiday, but the space and magnitude of the rebound should not be large
.
After the Spring Festival, pig prices may fall
seasonally.
"For 2023, the overall pig price is expected to be above the cost line and maintain a normal profit level, so the future should be full of
confidence for farmers.
" Zhu Zengyong said
.
