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Looking back at the twists and turns of the pig market in 2022, it bottomed out after the Spring Festival and rebounded until it rushed to the sky, and ushered in the diving situation of "peak season is not busy" at the end of the year in optimistic expectations for the market
.
Although it is still in the "pig cycle", today's pig market has changed its regular ups and downs, and with the intervention of new entities such as large-scale production capacity, finance and information services, this field has also presented a more volatile and complex situation
.
In the just started 2023, Interface News absorbs information from agricultural data platforms, investment institutions, pig breeding enterprises and other parties to jointly look forward to the pig market and investment opportunities
in the new year.
Looking back at 2022: A year of turbulence
2022 is a year
in which pig prices fluctuate by about 300%.
According to the Brick agricultural big data report, from January 1, 2022 to December 20, 2022, the average pig price in the country was the lowest 11.
5 yuan/kg and the highest was 28.
5 yuan/kg, with an average price fluctuation range of about
245%.
In some areas, the lowest pig price this year is 10.
8 yuan/kg, and the highest can reach 30.
5 yuan/kg
.
A brief review of the 2022 pig market
like a roller coaster ride.
In the sluggish demand after the Spring Festival and the surge in feed raw materials, pig prices fell in panic from February to March, and even some small pigs were slaughtered, which led to a decline
in the supply of large pigs in the second quarter of 2022.
In June, there were few large pigs in the market, and the tight supply led to a continuous increase in pig prices after the summer, and pig prices frequently soared by more than 1 yuan / kg in a single day in late June and mid-July
.
Although there were frequent policy regulations in early July, due to the insignificant overall increase in the supply of large pigs in the market, coupled with the demand for two stocks, the pig price in the third quarter fluctuated
at 21-23.
5 yuan/kg.
Pig prices soared during the National Day period, soaring to 28.
5 yuan/kg in mid-October, and 30.
5 yuan/kg
in Guangdong.
The rising pig price strengthens the confidence of market players, shouting out the target
of 32 yuan / kg or even higher.
At that time, the market expected that pork demand would improve in the fourth quarter, and there were big upside opportunities
under the influence of the year-end demand season and the curing tide.
The optimistic atmosphere has pushed pig farmers to use a large number of pigs for secondary fattening or postpone slaughtering, but the market demand has not been fulfilled
.
Affected by factors such as epidemic lockdown and infection tide, the demand of bacon, sausages and preserved meat manufacturers in December failed to increase
.
Previously, the weight of pigs sold in the pen continued to increase, and the cost of large-weight pigs was high, and farmers were eager to get out of the slaughter in the market environment during the peak season, and finally formed a stampede plunge
.
According to Lin Guofa, research director of Brick Agricultural Products Collection, the pig price fell to 15.
8 yuan/kg on December 20, down 12.
7 yuan/kg
from 28.
5 yuan/kg in mid-October.
The profit of standard pigs weighing 100-125 kg decreased by 1400 yuan, and the profit of 150kg large-weight pigs fell sharply by nearly 2000 yuan / head, and there was a loss
of 500 yuan / head.
The overall situation of the pig market in 2022 has not escaped the price fluctuations caused by supply and demand – prices are rising due to tight supply, and the market is lower
due to capacity expansion and sluggish consumption.
"If we think that the cycle is a reciprocation of price, profit, and capacity, then the 'pig cycle' will undoubtedly continue to exist," as summarized by CSC in the 2022 Pig Annual Report, and the future pig market may not avoid the operation of the pig cycle
.
Although the fluctuation range of pig prices in 2022 is about 400% and 370% compared with 2019 and 2021, on the whole, the law is basically the same as in 2021, and the pen and panic selling have aggravated the volatility of pig prices, and the volatility is significantly higher than before
the African swine fever in 2018.
In the context of declining profits and high feed costs, more small and medium-sized farmers will leave the market in 2022, which further enhances the concentration of
the industry.
?
"The decrease in small and medium-sized farmers, the increase in the proportion of group breeding, the large-scale process of the industry aggravates the fluctuation of pig prices, financial entities and information service entities intervene, market volatility increases, and the pig cycle during the year is more significant," Lin Guofa, research director of Brick Agricultural Products Collection, summarized the characteristics of the pig market in 2022 that are different from usual
.
This also lays the groundwork for the pig market in 2023, and the prologue has already begun
.
Forecast: Wait for opportunities in the downside range
Based on the opinions of a number of senior practitioners in the pig field, it is agreed that the risks will be released after the plunge
.
Pig prices are expected to enter an upward cycle
later in the first quarter of next year.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics and CSC, as of the end of November, catering revenue in 2022 fell by 8.
3% year-on-year, the largest decline on record except 2020
.
The arrival of the first wave of positive peaks has also dealt a blow to the catering industry, but the industry generally has great hope for the return of normal catering operations after the wave of infections stabilizes in 2023, which has also become the underlying logic
of many parties optimistic about the pig market in the second quarter.
In an interview with Interface News, New Hope, a large agricultural and animal husbandry food company, gave its expectations for the pig market in 2023: it is generally in the downward range of this cycle, but the average price of the whole year will not be very low
.
Since 2022, the enthusiasm of the industry to replenish the slaughter is relatively cautious, although the production capacity of breeding sows has maintained an overall recovery trend, the extent is still relatively slow, so the number of pigs slaughtered in the whole industry will not increase particularly much in 2023
.
The tighter supply side and the optimization and adjustment of the new crown epidemic prevention and control policies will further release consumer demand, "referring to past cycles, and may even be in a medium-to-upper position overall"
.
However, as mentioned earlier, as market participants change and small and medium-sized farmers decrease, the pig industry in the 2023 cycle will also show different characteristics
from previous pig cycles.
"The lack of a large number of food waste farmers, the rapid increase in the proportion of large groups, the participation of information service agencies and financial institutions, all this will lead to greater market volatility, consistent pressure and selling are more significant than in previous years, greatly aggravating annual volatility," Lin predicted
.
When small and medium-sized retail investors are the main body in the market, the growth and decline of traditional production capacity is centered on binary breeding sows, and the collective behavior under the herd effect is more likely to help introduce a very regular periodic appearance
.
With the increase of large enterprises with external capital and planned operations, the production capacity formed itself has the expectation of long-term operation, and it also requires long-term depreciation and amortization and continuous production to achieve the expected profit
.
The birth of these new capacities does not aim at a single cycle, but will continue to form a corresponding supply
over a longer period of time.
New Hope's business strategy for 2023 is to adopt a combination of long and short term
.
In such a cost-efficient industry as pig farming, with the long-term goal of improving its own operation and continuously reducing breeding costs, "it will still maintain steady operation in 2023, and there will be no major strategic adjustments
.
" ”
New Hope has also set up several independent and dedicated research teams from the perspectives of strategy, futures and spot sales to provide professional opinions
for the company's cyclical business strategy adjustment.
Compared with blindly betting on pig prices, passively adjusting production capacity in accordance with the pig cycle, large-scale enterprises also take the initiative to respond
from the perspective of science and technology and industrial chain extension.
Digital pig farming has become a new focus of science and technology to support agriculture this year, taking Lianshui Liandu District in recent years to build the Huatong livestock and poultry industry chain intelligent project as an example, the farm in the way of high-rise breeding to solve the problem of less land use in Zhejiang Province, but also has the use of automatic scraping, automatic feeding, automatic water feeding, automatic prevention and control and other advanced automation equipment
.
Originally, one person could only raise thirty or forty pigs, but now it is technically possible to raise 3,000 to 4,000 pigs
per person.
New Hope and other large-scale pig enterprises in the whole industry chain will also extend the pig breeding business upstream and downstream, and practice breeding linkage while exploring the original breed selection
linkage.
On the one hand, it makes improvements and optimizations from the germplasm to help the subsequent expansion and production links improve efficiency, on the other hand, give full play to the maximum value of a pig, make the best use of the pig, make the best use of the meat, so that the high quality brought by the high input in the breeding process can be rewarded
in terms of meat.
However, it is worth noting that the above three main directions require long-term, firm, and large investment, and leading enterprises have relatively better conditions, which also strengthens the barriers
between small and medium-sized farmers and large-scale enterprises.
In addition, when talking about the pig market in 2023, in addition to the fluctuation of the price itself, some negative situations with a high degree of correlation with pig farming also need to be paid special attention
.
First of all, the profit of pigs decreases, the careful breeding situation of breeding entities weakens, the overall efficiency cost increases, and the increase in feed grain supply pressure may even affect the security of China's staple food supply.
Secondly, after 2019, the number of small, medium-sized and family farmers in cities and towns collecting food waste to feed pigs has decreased, which is not conducive to balancing the short-term market fluctuations
caused by the herd effect.
"This part of the main body accounts for a large proportion, under normal circumstances, the kitchen waste of a town can support at least 2 single batches of 200 pig farmers, and the annual output reaches 500 pig farmers
.
" These farmers normally have the lowest cost, only the cost of piglets plus a package of feed and their own collection of food waste labor, and these farmers are limited by the breeding site and generally come out on time
.
The current market is easy to form consistent behavior, lack of 'reservoir', pig prices fluctuate sharply, and it is easier to lead to short-term behavior
of breeding entities.
Lin Guofa said
analytically.
Hog Investment Recommendations 2023
From the perspective of breeding, Lin Guofa suggested that the core in 2023 is to raise pigs, reduce costs, and do a good job in active risk management
.
Do a good job of cost and capital management, and wait for the market to pick up
.
Not gambling on prices and improving the level of breeding is the fundamental way
of pig breeding.
In terms of pig futures in the first half of the year, CSC said in its annual report that from the purely supply side, the production capacity in 2023 has not yet been realized to excess, and if the market can clear the large pigs at the end of the year before the holiday and achieve effective weight reduction, the supply side will be generally supported
.
In an optimistic scenario, consumption improves before March and the big pig clears, then the 03 futures contract expiring in March can cash in on the turnaround; Conversely, if neither of the above points is realized, it may take the 05 contract to reflect to some extent closer to the delivery month
.
However, as the expectations of various contracts continue to be pessimistic, the price-performance ratio of the bargain hunting layout is emerging
.
CSC recommends that the fluctuation range of the contract in the first half of the year (excluding LH2301) is 13100~20800 / ton; For the second half of the contract, it is expected to continue to form a "seesaw" market with the first half of the year, you can pay attention to the high point of sentiment given by the market when the big pig clearing, the epidemic has passed, and the price range is 14000~21900 yuan / ton
.
In terms of stock investment in pig enterprises, Wei Xin, senior researcher of CSC Futures, gave suggestions in an interview with Interface News: the overall situation does not see a particularly large contradiction or trend market, but under pessimism, the whole cycle will change relatively quickly in the future, seize some small fluctuations, and it is not easy to miss opportunities
.
During the African swine fever period in 2020 and 2021, pig prices were in a high position, and high profit margins combined with the overall economic transformation, the pig market also attracted funds
in transformation areas such as real estate.
At the same time, there is a demand for local supply of pigs, and 2019 and 2020 are the peak
of capital entry for many reasons.
Entering 2022, with the decline in profit margins, the vitality of capital injection in the pig breeding industry has declined, forming a relatively restrained cycle
.
The fundraising activities of listed companies have not been completely stopped due to the decline in profits, and the overall fundraising efforts of Makihara, Wen's, New Hope, Aonong, and Superstar are still much greater than before
the non-plague cycle.
From the time data of the construction in progress, some companies experienced capital operation pressure and strategic adjustment after the decline in profits in 2021, but before 2020, the listed companies built production capacity in the pig boom market and continued to cash in
the follow-up.
"In terms of secondary market investment, companies with high leverage and possible lax management will be eliminated
.
Conversely, high-quality companies created by production barriers may have opportunities
for sustained investment.
For example, Makihara has built a huge production capacity that is expected to sprint to the target of 100 million heads, and if the company continues to produce with a market-leading cost mechanism, it can be seen that its cash flow will continue to be expected
in the future.
Wei Xin analyzed
.
"Small and beautiful" or medium-sized enterprises that have advantages in the breeding end are also worth paying attention to, such as Juxing Agriculture and Animal Husbandry and Shennong Group
.
When everyone is particularly pessimistic about the market, there are also mobile phone meetings," Wei Xin gave a summary of the stock investment of pig enterprises in 2023: "In fact, if you follow the cycle, I don't think it is too suitable to invest in pig stocks
in 2023.
" But the whole cycle will change relatively quickly in the future, and if the right valuation is found, there may be unexpected gains
.
”
;
;Looking back at the twists and turns of the pig market in 2022, it bottomed out after the Spring Festival and rebounded until it rushed to the sky, and ushered in the diving situation of "peak season is not busy" at the end of the year in optimistic expectations for the market
.
Although it is still in the "pig cycle", today's pig market has changed its regular ups and downs, and with the intervention of new entities such as large-scale production capacity, finance and information services, this field has also presented a more volatile and complex situation
.
In the just started 2023, Interface News absorbs information from agricultural data platforms, investment institutions, pig breeding enterprises and other parties to jointly look forward to the pig market and investment opportunities
in the new year.
Looking back at 2022: A year of turbulence
Looking back at 2022: A year of turbulence2022 is a year
in which pig prices fluctuate by about 300%.
According to the Brick agricultural big data report, from January 1, 2022 to December 20, 2022, the average pig price in the country was the lowest 11.
5 yuan/kg and the highest was 28.
5 yuan/kg, with an average price fluctuation range of about
245%.
In some areas, the lowest pig price this year is 10.
8 yuan/kg, and the highest can reach 30.
5 yuan/kg
.
A brief review of the 2022 pig market
like a roller coaster ride.
In the sluggish demand after the Spring Festival and the surge in feed raw materials, pig prices fell in panic from February to March, and even some small pigs were slaughtered, which led to a decline
in the supply of large pigs in the second quarter of 2022.
In June, there were few large pigs in the market, and the tight supply led to a continuous increase in pig prices after the summer, and pig prices frequently soared by more than 1 yuan / kg in a single day in late June and mid-July
.
Although there were frequent policy regulations in early July, due to the insignificant overall increase in the supply of large pigs in the market, coupled with the demand for two stocks, the pig price in the third quarter fluctuated
at 21-23.
5 yuan/kg.
Pig prices soared during the National Day period, soaring to 28.
5 yuan/kg in mid-October, and 30.
5 yuan/kg
in Guangdong.
The rising pig price strengthens the confidence of market players, shouting out the target
of 32 yuan / kg or even higher.
At that time, the market expected that pork demand would improve in the fourth quarter, and there were big upside opportunities
under the influence of the year-end demand season and the curing tide.
The optimistic atmosphere has pushed pig farmers to use a large number of pigs for secondary fattening or postpone slaughtering, but the market demand has not been fulfilled
.
Affected by factors such as epidemic lockdown and infection tide, the demand of bacon, sausages and preserved meat manufacturers in December failed to increase
.
Previously, the weight of pigs sold in the pen continued to increase, and the cost of large-weight pigs was high, and farmers were eager to get out of the slaughter in the market environment during the peak season, and finally formed a stampede plunge
.
According to Lin Guofa, research director of Brick Agricultural Products Collection, the pig price fell to 15.
8 yuan/kg on December 20, down 12.
7 yuan/kg
from 28.
5 yuan/kg in mid-October.
The profit of standard pigs weighing 100-125 kg decreased by 1400 yuan, and the profit of 150kg large-weight pigs fell sharply by nearly 2000 yuan / head, and there was a loss
of 500 yuan / head.
The overall situation of the pig market in 2022 has not escaped the price fluctuations caused by supply and demand – prices are rising due to tight supply, and the market is lower
due to capacity expansion and sluggish consumption.
"If we think that the cycle is a reciprocation of price, profit, and capacity, then the 'pig cycle' will undoubtedly continue to exist," as summarized by CSC in the 2022 Pig Annual Report, and the future pig market may not avoid the operation of the pig cycle
.
Although the fluctuation range of pig prices in 2022 is about 400% and 370% compared with 2019 and 2021, on the whole, the law is basically the same as in 2021, and the pen and panic selling have aggravated the volatility of pig prices, and the volatility is significantly higher than before
the African swine fever in 2018.
In the context of declining profits and high feed costs, more small and medium-sized farmers will leave the market in 2022, which further enhances the concentration of
the industry.
?
"The decrease in small and medium-sized farmers, the increase in the proportion of group breeding, the large-scale process of the industry aggravates the fluctuation of pig prices, financial entities and information service entities intervene, market volatility increases, and the pig cycle during the year is more significant," Lin Guofa, research director of Brick Agricultural Products Collection, summarized the characteristics of the pig market in 2022 that are different from usual
.
This also lays the groundwork for the pig market in 2023, and the prologue has already begun
.
Forecast: Wait for opportunities in the downside range
Forecast: Wait for opportunities in the downside rangeBased on the opinions of a number of senior practitioners in the pig field, it is agreed that the risks will be released after the plunge
.
Pig prices are expected to enter an upward cycle
later in the first quarter of next year.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics and CSC, as of the end of November, catering revenue in 2022 fell by 8.
3% year-on-year, the largest decline on record except 2020
.
The arrival of the first wave of positive peaks has also dealt a blow to the catering industry, but the industry generally has great hope for the return of normal catering operations after the wave of infections stabilizes in 2023, which has also become the underlying logic
of many parties optimistic about the pig market in the second quarter.
In an interview with Interface News, New Hope, a large agricultural and animal husbandry food company, gave its expectations for the pig market in 2023: it is generally in the downward range of this cycle, but the average price of the whole year will not be very low
.
Since 2022, the enthusiasm of the industry to replenish the slaughter is relatively cautious, although the production capacity of breeding sows has maintained an overall recovery trend, the extent is still relatively slow, so the number of pigs slaughtered in the whole industry will not increase particularly much in 2023
.
The tighter supply side and the optimization and adjustment of the new crown epidemic prevention and control policies will further release consumer demand, "referring to past cycles, and may even be in a medium-to-upper position overall"
.
However, as mentioned earlier, as market participants change and small and medium-sized farmers decrease, the pig industry in the 2023 cycle will also show different characteristics
from previous pig cycles.
"The lack of a large number of food waste farmers, the rapid increase in the proportion of large groups, the participation of information service agencies and financial institutions, all this will lead to greater market volatility, consistent pressure and selling are more significant than in previous years, greatly aggravating annual volatility," Lin predicted
.
When small and medium-sized retail investors are the main body in the market, the growth and decline of traditional production capacity is centered on binary breeding sows, and the collective behavior under the herd effect is more likely to help introduce a very regular periodic appearance
.
With the increase of large enterprises with external capital and planned operations, the production capacity formed itself has the expectation of long-term operation, and it also requires long-term depreciation and amortization and continuous production to achieve the expected profit
.
The birth of these new capacities does not aim at a single cycle, but will continue to form a corresponding supply
over a longer period of time.
New Hope's business strategy for 2023 is to adopt a combination of long and short term
.
In such a cost-efficient industry as pig farming, with the long-term goal of improving its own operation and continuously reducing breeding costs, "it will still maintain steady operation in 2023, and there will be no major strategic adjustments
.
" ”
New Hope has also set up several independent and dedicated research teams from the perspectives of strategy, futures and spot sales to provide professional opinions
for the company's cyclical business strategy adjustment.
Compared with blindly betting on pig prices, passively adjusting production capacity in accordance with the pig cycle, large-scale enterprises also take the initiative to respond
from the perspective of science and technology and industrial chain extension.
Digital pig farming has become a new focus of science and technology to support agriculture this year, taking Lianshui Liandu District in recent years to build the Huatong livestock and poultry industry chain intelligent project as an example, the farm in the way of high-rise breeding to solve the problem of less land use in Zhejiang Province, but also has the use of automatic scraping, automatic feeding, automatic water feeding, automatic prevention and control and other advanced automation equipment
.
Originally, one person could only raise thirty or forty pigs, but now it is technically possible to raise 3,000 to 4,000 pigs
per person.
New Hope and other large-scale pig enterprises in the whole industry chain will also extend the pig breeding business upstream and downstream, and practice breeding linkage while exploring the original breed selection
linkage.
On the one hand, it makes improvements and optimizations from the germplasm to help the subsequent expansion and production links improve efficiency, on the other hand, give full play to the maximum value of a pig, make the best use of the pig, make the best use of the meat, so that the high quality brought by the high input in the breeding process can be rewarded
in terms of meat.
However, it is worth noting that the above three main directions require long-term, firm, and large investment, and leading enterprises have relatively better conditions, which also strengthens the barriers
between small and medium-sized farmers and large-scale enterprises.
In addition, when talking about the pig market in 2023, in addition to the fluctuation of the price itself, some negative situations with a high degree of correlation with pig farming also need to be paid special attention
.
First of all, the profit of pigs decreases, the careful breeding situation of breeding entities weakens, the overall efficiency cost increases, and the increase in feed grain supply pressure may even affect the security of China's staple food supply.
Secondly, after 2019, the number of small, medium-sized and family farmers in cities and towns collecting food waste to feed pigs has decreased, which is not conducive to balancing the short-term market fluctuations
caused by the herd effect.
"This part of the main body accounts for a large proportion, under normal circumstances, the kitchen waste of a town can support at least 2 single batches of 200 pig farmers, and the annual output reaches 500 pig farmers
.
" These farmers normally have the lowest cost, only the cost of piglets plus a package of feed and their own collection of food waste labor, and these farmers are limited by the breeding site and generally come out on time
.
The current market is easy to form consistent behavior, lack of 'reservoir', pig prices fluctuate sharply, and it is easier to lead to short-term behavior
of breeding entities.
Lin Guofa said
analytically.
Hog Investment Recommendations 2023
Hog Investment Recommendations 2023From the perspective of breeding, Lin Guofa suggested that the core in 2023 is to raise pigs, reduce costs, and do a good job in active risk management
.
Do a good job of cost and capital management, and wait for the market to pick up
.
Not gambling on prices and improving the level of breeding is the fundamental way
of pig breeding.
In terms of pig futures in the first half of the year, CSC said in its annual report that from the purely supply side, the production capacity in 2023 has not yet been realized to excess, and if the market can clear the large pigs at the end of the year before the holiday and achieve effective weight reduction, the supply side will be generally supported
.
In an optimistic scenario, consumption improves before March and the big pig clears, then the 03 futures contract expiring in March can cash in on the turnaround; Conversely, if neither of the above points is realized, it may take the 05 contract to reflect to some extent closer to the delivery month
.
However, as the expectations of various contracts continue to be pessimistic, the price-performance ratio of the bargain hunting layout is emerging
.
CSC recommends that the fluctuation range of the contract in the first half of the year (excluding LH2301) is 13100~20800 / ton; For the second half of the contract, it is expected to continue to form a "seesaw" market with the first half of the year, you can pay attention to the high point of sentiment given by the market when the big pig clearing, the epidemic has passed, and the price range is 14000~21900 yuan / ton
.
In terms of stock investment in pig enterprises, Wei Xin, senior researcher of CSC Futures, gave suggestions in an interview with Interface News: the overall situation does not see a particularly large contradiction or trend market, but under pessimism, the whole cycle will change relatively quickly in the future, seize some small fluctuations, and it is not easy to miss opportunities
.
During the African swine fever period in 2020 and 2021, pig prices were in a high position, and high profit margins combined with the overall economic transformation, the pig market also attracted funds
in transformation areas such as real estate.
At the same time, there is a demand for local supply of pigs, and 2019 and 2020 are the peak
of capital entry for many reasons.
Entering 2022, with the decline in profit margins, the vitality of capital injection in the pig breeding industry has declined, forming a relatively restrained cycle
.
The fundraising activities of listed companies have not been completely stopped due to the decline in profits, and the overall fundraising efforts of Makihara, Wen's, New Hope, Aonong, and Superstar are still much greater than before
the non-plague cycle.
From the time data of the construction in progress, some companies experienced capital operation pressure and strategic adjustment after the decline in profits in 2021, but before 2020, the listed companies built production capacity in the pig boom market and continued to cash in
the follow-up.
"In terms of secondary market investment, companies with high leverage and possible lax management will be eliminated
.
Conversely, high-quality companies created by production barriers may have opportunities
for sustained investment.
For example, Makihara has built a huge production capacity that is expected to sprint to the target of 100 million heads, and if the company continues to produce with a market-leading cost mechanism, it can be seen that its cash flow will continue to be expected
in the future.
Wei Xin analyzed
.
"Small and beautiful" or medium-sized enterprises that have advantages in the breeding end are also worth paying attention to, such as Juxing Agriculture and Animal Husbandry and Shennong Group
.
When everyone is particularly pessimistic about the market, there are also mobile phone meetings," Wei Xin gave a summary of the stock investment of pig enterprises in 2023: "In fact, if you follow the cycle, I don't think it is too suitable to invest in pig stocks
in 2023.
" But the whole cycle will change relatively quickly in the future, and if the right valuation is found, there may be unexpected gains
.
”
